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Message
re: The Crash Will Blow Everyone’s Mind and It Starts Right Now 5/18
Posted on 5/18/22 at 11:25 am to Hussss
Posted on 5/18/22 at 11:25 am to Hussss
The S&P is down about 20% for the year.
IF (big IF) some good economic news continues to trickle in (even if it is merely "earnings" - in an inflationary cycle, that might not mean a whole lot, but it can be an emotional bolster), this could be, roughly, the bottom (I know, TWSS).
However, without some pause in the increase of fuel prices or other fundamental drift in a positive direction, we could see another 10% or more valuation shed.
The media is going to have to gird its loins to sell good economic news if we do officially hit the criteria for a recession (and, frankly, we might already be there.)
IF (big IF) some good economic news continues to trickle in (even if it is merely "earnings" - in an inflationary cycle, that might not mean a whole lot, but it can be an emotional bolster), this could be, roughly, the bottom (I know, TWSS).
However, without some pause in the increase of fuel prices or other fundamental drift in a positive direction, we could see another 10% or more valuation shed.
The media is going to have to gird its loins to sell good economic news if we do officially hit the criteria for a recession (and, frankly, we might already be there.)
4
Posted on 5/18/22 at 11:35 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
roughly, the bottom (I know, TWSS).
The Fed will be raising rates for most of the year. Energy is soaring. Just wait till the defaults start to happen. (Look at the revolving credit numbers)
Not likely.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 11:36 am to Ace Midnight
Sell in May, go away. I sold in April (still too late), put myself in timeout and will reevaluate in 6 months prior to the holidays.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 11:41 am to sawtooth
quote:
The Fed will be raising rates for most of the year.
True, but they're already telegraphed that so (at least some of it) is factored in. It may end up being a wash if it puts the brakes on the inflationary pressure. I mean, people can literally feel inflation right now - weekly trips to the grocery and gas station are real-time data points.
I'm bearish myself, but I'm not sure I'm in the "this will be worse than 2008" camp quite yet. Could be quite ugly, though. Hell, it already is.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 11:45 am to Hussss
quote:
S&P Headed to 5k Like a Magnet Posted by Hussss on 11/2/21 at 10:38 am
LOL
Posted on 5/18/22 at 11:49 am to Dawgfanman
This fooking guy…..
Does he ever stop
Does he ever stop
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 11:54 am
Posted on 5/18/22 at 12:22 pm to sawtooth
quote:
The Fed will be raising rates for most of the year. Energy is soaring. Just wait till the defaults start to happen. (Look at the revolving credit numbers)
As of the 4th quarter consumers needed to use 14% of their after tax incomes to meet their financial obligations, which are debt service plus rents and payments for car leases and similar cost. For comparison, that’s lower than it ever was pre - COVID, dating back to at least 1980.
(Source: Brian Wesbury, First Trust chief economist)
Posted on 5/18/22 at 12:29 pm to Hussss
Pics or GTFO
Posted on 5/18/22 at 2:49 pm to Hussss
quote:
Folks can get back in once this is all over.
If you don't get out then you don't have to worry about when to get back in.
The markets may drop 50% more, but even if they do, I will bet they will rebound and will set new highs in the future. If not, we all have much bigger problems to worry about.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 2:54 pm to Hussss
quote:
Wave 3 of 3 down has just started this morning. Either go to cash or get short. Buckle up.
holy shite, is it finally happening?
made great money using you as a contra-indicator, but sadly even a broke clock is right twice a day.
but you posting this makes me want to start buying because your track record is absolutely on fire for inversing.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 3:01 pm to deathvalleytiger10
quote:
I will bet they will rebound and will set new highs in the future.
Agreed. I just sold high and now I am waiting for the lows. That 20% loss will be my 20% gain.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 3:15 pm to Hussss
quote:
Wave 3 of 3 down has just started this morning.
Not sure there’ll only be 3 waves
I think we could see some unfortunate news from the housing market before the end of the year in the form of foreclosures. If we do, there’ll be another leg down in the stock markets
Posted on 5/18/22 at 3:21 pm to SlidellCajun
Primary moves are normally 5 waves with wave 3 being the absolute strongest.
Counter trend corrective moves are normally 3 waves.
ETA: This looks like a 3rd of a 3rd (Subwave 3 of Primary wave 3).
Counter trend corrective moves are normally 3 waves.
ETA: This looks like a 3rd of a 3rd (Subwave 3 of Primary wave 3).
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 3:26 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
this could be, roughly, the bottom
Not even close
Posted on 5/18/22 at 3:27 pm to Strannix
This is frightening
Posted on 5/18/22 at 3:28 pm to Strannix
quote:
quote: this could be, roughly, the bottom
Not even close
This is what I have been warning about that folks have said was so wrong for so long: “Once the market loses faith in the Fed it’s game over.”
EVERYTHING since 2008 has been “papered over” by the Fed and corporate buybacks. Full stop.
If folks want to focus so much on what I said years ago instead of protecting their capital through this then I can’t help em’.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 3:33 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 4:13 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
As of the 4th quarter consumers needed to use 14% of their after tax incomes to meet their financial obligations, which are debt service plus rents and payments for car leases and similar cost. For comparison, that’s lower than it ever was pre - COVID, dating back to at least 1980.
(Source: Brian Wesbury, First Trust chief economist)
There is no way that this is correct. Average rent is what 1000 at best? And this plus ither obligations is only 14% of take home? The average consumer is taking home 7k after tax a month???
Posted on 5/18/22 at 4:22 pm to Hussss
We're actually close to the bottom for 2022 with what is known currently. There's more selling ahead with the market coming to terms with a mild recession, but the doom and gloom for a huge crash from here is overreacting.
Before you realize it, the market will be anticipating the end of the recession and return to growth.
Before you realize it, the market will be anticipating the end of the recession and return to growth.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 4:59 pm to sawtooth
quote:it’ That equates to a 50% gain if it gets back to where you sold from where you bought back. Assuming it drops 20 after you sell and comes up 20 after you buy back
That 20% loss will be my 20% gain.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 5:01 pm to DTRooster
Why did an idea for an epic rap battle video between Huss and AT just pop into my head?
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 5:02 pm
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