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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/11/23 at 3:08 pm to Lakeboy7
Posted on 3/11/23 at 3:08 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
DD I cant open your links when I'm on my phone? operator error on m y end probably!!!!
Weird.
Link doesn’t work version:
We just flew a B-52 in the direction of St. Perersburg, hit a sharp turn and proceeded to fly it close to the Kalingrad border in a big circle.
2
Posted on 3/11/23 at 3:09 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
So, today might have been a very good day for Ukraine. Or, the UA general staff might have been wrong or lying -- we'll see.
If we start seeing successful Ukrainian pushes south from Bahkmut along the river towards Mayorsk and south along the river from Zaliznianske then it could be a very bad weekend for Russia.
It appears they are stabilising along the Bahkmutk river. There area quite a few Russian units on the other side of it at the moment and Ukraine has been taking out pontoons and bridges.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 3:11 pm to OutsideObserver
Interesting graphic:
The 122 documented Russian tank losses in February are the highest since the successful Kharkiv/Kherson offensives in the fall.
And keep in mind that these are only the visually documented losses. There are tanks that are destroyed by mines or by nighttime HIMARS strikes and are not videoed. There are also lots of tanks that break down, suffer barrel fatigue, etc., so I would say that Russia lost a minimum of 150 tanks last month.
I recently read one report that said that Russia is making 20 new tanks per month and is refurbishing 20 T-62s per month at another plant. I read another report that the number of new tanks might be as high as 50 per month. So, somewhere between 40 and 70 tanks are heading to the front lines every month.
Russia is working on converting two more plants to working on refurbishing old tanks, but for now, the number of Russian tanks on the battlefield is in a significant decline.
quote:
VISUALLY CONFIRMED TANK LOSSES
122 Russian tanks were added to the records of Oryx in February, of which 57 were captured or abandoned. 54% were made in the Soviet era while the rest were either made or modified after 1991, up from previous month.
The 122 documented Russian tank losses in February are the highest since the successful Kharkiv/Kherson offensives in the fall.
And keep in mind that these are only the visually documented losses. There are tanks that are destroyed by mines or by nighttime HIMARS strikes and are not videoed. There are also lots of tanks that break down, suffer barrel fatigue, etc., so I would say that Russia lost a minimum of 150 tanks last month.
I recently read one report that said that Russia is making 20 new tanks per month and is refurbishing 20 T-62s per month at another plant. I read another report that the number of new tanks might be as high as 50 per month. So, somewhere between 40 and 70 tanks are heading to the front lines every month.
Russia is working on converting two more plants to working on refurbishing old tanks, but for now, the number of Russian tanks on the battlefield is in a significant decline.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 3:14 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
We just flew a B-52 in the direction of St. Perersburg, hit a sharp turn and proceeded to fly it close to the Kalingrad border in a big circle.
Just another day man, the respective air forces do that daily.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 3:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The only "negative" thing is that is doesn't do much to deter China in the short term, as most of the benefits of AUKUS won't be seen for a while.
I ran across this the other day while looking at other material.
Some interesting history and analysis though not centric to the thread.
Youtube - RealLifeLore Why Russia's biggest threat is actually China. - 11 days ago.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 4:03 pm to dukke v
Russia + China hold the most nukes of every other country combined.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 4:37 pm to DabosDynasty
Nothing out of the ordinary. We fly the outskirts of their airspace just as they do ours. Completely normal operations.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 5:10 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:I have no expertise whatever, but that approach track certainly seems ... provocative.
Interesting
Posted on 3/11/23 at 5:58 pm to tokenBoiler
Not at all. We fly AWACS aircraft all over the Black Sea everyday. Russia knows they don’t want to poke the bear. Right now all we are doing is supplying Ukrainian forces. They don’t want any part of our Air Force.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 6:15 pm to OutsideObserver
ISW:
quote:
Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 8:09 pm to GOP_Tiger
Sounds like the operational pause i posted about yesterday is really the case. Wow.
There's a video on reddit of Ukrainians using a night camera drone and artillery to kill a large group of of attacking Russians.
For those with experience, how do you defend against something like that? Drone warfare during the day is hard enough, but at night it seams almost impossible. Would NVG's even pick it up?
There's a video on reddit of Ukrainians using a night camera drone and artillery to kill a large group of of attacking Russians.
For those with experience, how do you defend against something like that? Drone warfare during the day is hard enough, but at night it seams almost impossible. Would NVG's even pick it up?
Posted on 3/11/23 at 8:11 pm to DabosDynasty
Same here. I have never been able to open your links.
I don't know what the issue is.
I don't know what the issue is.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 8:18 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:Yeah, and I know both sides play the "I'm not touching you" game. I guess I always envisioned it as being long figure-8s more or less parallel to the borders, not so much driving up a waterway right towards a major city.
Not at all. We fly AWACS aircraft all over the Black Sea everyday
Posted on 3/11/23 at 8:20 pm to gmac8604
quote:
Russia + China hold the most nukes of every other country combined.
Close but no cigar
Posted on 3/11/23 at 8:21 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russia has a shite ton of tanks. But those losses are unsustainable even for Russia.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 8:51 pm to Darth_Vader
If you want to read an informative, detailed, and imaginative twitter thread on how a possible Ukrainian offensive in the south could go, then I recommend this one from Thomas Theiner.
I do not agree with him, though, in thinking that Ukraine will attack directly towards Mariupol. Urban areas are easier to defend, and Ukraine's primary goal is not capturing cities (no matter so meaningful it would be for both sides if Ukraine were to retake Mariupol).
No, I like something more like this idea from a Polish guy: go towards Berdyansk (he also includes a feint towards Tokmak). He notes that not only is Melitopol heavily defended, but there are also a number of east-west rivers and watercourses there (in blue on his map), and going a little towards the east towards Berdyansk avoids those.
The key for Ukraine is simply to cut the "land bridge" and reach the Sea of Azov, so it makes sense to find the easiest path there.
I do not agree with him, though, in thinking that Ukraine will attack directly towards Mariupol. Urban areas are easier to defend, and Ukraine's primary goal is not capturing cities (no matter so meaningful it would be for both sides if Ukraine were to retake Mariupol).
No, I like something more like this idea from a Polish guy: go towards Berdyansk (he also includes a feint towards Tokmak). He notes that not only is Melitopol heavily defended, but there are also a number of east-west rivers and watercourses there (in blue on his map), and going a little towards the east towards Berdyansk avoids those.
The key for Ukraine is simply to cut the "land bridge" and reach the Sea of Azov, so it makes sense to find the easiest path there.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 8:56 pm to tokenBoiler
All depends what the AWACS aircraft is looking for and in what area. Right now them patrolling the Black Sea which gives it a good picture of Crimea and Southern Ukraine (Kherson) as well as Russian air bases in the area.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 9:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
I missed this yesterday:
Kyiv Post:
Until recently, I had been thinking that the Ukrainian offensive would start mid-April. Now, I just don't think that enough of what NATO has promised will be ready and deployed by then.
Kyiv Post:
quote:
Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Will Start in Two Months, Zelensky’s Aide Says
“We are not in a hurry, we will reorganize over the next two months. We will exhaust the Russians in Bakhmut and then focus elsewhere,” Podolyak said in an interview published today by the Italian newspaper La Stampa.
Russia had concentrated most of its trained military personnel in Bakhmut, along with the most combat-ready private military companies, he added.
As such, Ukraine is pursing two main goals in its defense of Bakhmut: to gain time to replenish its forces, and to inflict heavy losses on the Russian army. He added that the decision to make the defense of a key area a priority task was a joint strategy developed by the country’s military leaders with the approval of the President of Ukraine.
“It is important for them to move in this direction. Therefore, we have two goals: to reduce their combat-ready personnel as much as possible and squeeze them into several grueling key battles, disrupt their offensive, and concentrate our resources elsewhere for a spring counteroffensive,” Podolyak said.
He added that he considered the AFU tactics in Bakhmut to be “quite effective today, surpassing its key tasks.” Russia is losing five to seven times more military personnel than Ukraine, he noted. There are about 40,000 dead and wounded invaders in Bakhmut.
Until recently, I had been thinking that the Ukrainian offensive would start mid-April. Now, I just don't think that enough of what NATO has promised will be ready and deployed by then.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 9:08 pm to LSUPilot07
isw
quote:
Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fighting in the city, but Wagner Group fighters are likely becoming increasingly pinned in urban areas, such as the AZOM industrial complex, and are therefore finding it difficult to make significant advances.[1] ISW will continue to monitor and report on the situation in Bakhmut as it unfolds
quote:
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed that there is infighting in the Kremlin inner circle, that the Kremlin has ceded centralized control over the Russian information space, and that Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently cannot readily fix it. Kremlin journalists, academics, and Novorossiya supporters held a forum on the “practical and technological aspects of information and cognitive warfare in modern realities” in Moscow on March 11.[2] During a panel discussion Zakharova stated that the Kremlin cannot replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau to centrally control Russia’s internal information space due to fighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites.”[3]
Zakharova’s statement is noteworthy and supports several of ISW’s longstanding assessments about deteriorating Kremlin regime and information space control dynamics. The statement supports several assessments: that there is Kremlin infighting between key members of Putin’s inner circle; that Putin has largely ceded the Russian information space over time to a variety of quasi-independent actors; and that Putin is apparently unable to take decisive action to regain control over the Russian information space.[4] It is unclear why Zakharova — a seasoned senior spokesperson — would have openly acknowledged these problems in a public setting. Zakharova may have directly discussed these problems for the first time to temper Russian nationalist milbloggers’ expectations regarding the current capabilities of the Kremlin to cohere around a unified narrative — or possibly even a unified policy.
quote:
Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he would transform the Wagner Group into a hardline ideological elite parallel military organization after the Battle of Bakhmut. Prigozhin stated on March 11 that the Wagner Group will start a new wave of recruitment after the envisioned capture of Bakhmut and reform itself into an army with an ideological component.[5] The Wagner Group has recently been expanding recruitment centers throughout Russia, including centers and programs focused on recruiting youth.[6] A Russian regional news source stated on March 11 that the Wagner Group has opened six recruitment centers in schools and youth sports clubs in Altai, Zabaykalsky, and Krasnoyarsk krais and Irkutsk Oblast.[7] A Russian opposition news source reported on March 11 that the Ministry of Education in Apatity, Murmansk Oblast included Wagner personnel at a career guidance lesson to tell “heroic stories” and promote the Wagneryonok [“little Wagner”] youth group and summer camp in Crimea.[8] The Wagner Group likely aims to recruit more impressionable recruits through these youth-focused campaigns and instill in them Prigozhin’s extremist ideological brand of Russian ultranationalism. Prigozhin may be attempting to restructure the Wagner Group into a hardline ideological elite parallel military organization to carve out a specialized role among Russian forces in Ukraine as its former role in solely securing tactical gains dissipates with the Wagner Group’s likely culmination around Bakhmut.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances within Bakhmut on March 11.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed that there is infighting in the Kremlin inner circle, that the Kremlin has ceded centralized control over the Russian information space, and implicitly that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot fix it.
Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he would transform the Wagner Group into a hardline ideological elite parallel military organization after the Battle of Bakhmut.
Ukrainian sources report that Ukrainian forces advanced toward Svatove.
Russian forces continue to establish fortifications in Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian mobilized soldiers continue to publicize complaints that commanders treat them poorly and used them as expendable manpower to patch holes in existent formations.
Russian occupation officials use children’s healthcare to generate dependency on the Russian healthcare system.
Posted on 3/11/23 at 9:08 pm to GOP_Tiger
They’ve taken heavy losses in Bakhmut at everywhere else and the fancy western tanks aren’t even in country yet. 2 months is optimistic if you ask me.
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