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re: Over/Under for Russian invasion of Ukraine - 10 days What do you think?
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:02 pm to Indefatigable
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:02 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
He’s going to move to the extent that it prevents Ukraine from being a NATO member.
He has already done that. Ukraine will not be a NATO member and is nowhere close to becoming one.
Let me clarify. NATO has said it will
not cease expansion. Ukraine wants to be a member.
Both of those together are unacceptable to Putin. One must be removed.
He tried to get NATO cease expansion and failed. So he will eliminate Ukraine wanting to join NATO by installing his own government (by force).
3
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:12 pm to BobBoucher
quote:
So he will eliminate Ukraine wanting to join NATO by installing his own government (by force).
No he won’t. Ukraine will not join NATO, nor will it be offered membership. He will annex Donbass to get a domestic political W and be done with it.
This entire charade has been partially created and then exacerbated by shitty American journalism
This post was edited on 1/21/22 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:21 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Ukraine will not join NATO,
Neither party will guarantee this. That is the problem. It’s not about Donbass.
If he annexes it and is done, then Kiev can still join NATO and he’s right back where he is. Your model doesn’t achieve his goal of making Ukraine a buffer state.
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:25 pm to udtiger
At this point, I don't care.
We should have given or sold the Ukraine enough anti-tank Lancer missiles and other equipment to seriously blunt any invasion on the nose.
At this point, the ball is in both Ukraine and Russia's court.
Brandon, please keep your mouth shut and us out of this, you piece of shite.
We should have given or sold the Ukraine enough anti-tank Lancer missiles and other equipment to seriously blunt any invasion on the nose.
At this point, the ball is in both Ukraine and Russia's court.
Brandon, please keep your mouth shut and us out of this, you piece of shite.
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:27 pm to BobBoucher
quote:
It’s not about Donbass.
Russia’s posturing on NATO has nothing to do with Donbass, correct. They are still going to take it.
quote:
If he annexes it and is done, then Kiev can still join NATO and he’s right back where he is.
They won’t, and he knows it. Kiev also knows it, as does Brussels. There is zero possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, and every party that is even remotely interested knows that. This whole thing is posturing.
This post was edited on 1/21/22 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:34 pm to udtiger
Over.
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:36 pm to Indefatigable
Putin wants NATO's assurance that Ukraine will never become a member, and they are reluctant to give it.
It won't just be Donbass. Russia needs a buffer and, without any agreement, Russia will make their own buffer.
The question the west needs to ask is, "is the Ukraine worth a war?"
It won't just be Donbass. Russia needs a buffer and, without any agreement, Russia will make their own buffer.
The question the west needs to ask is, "is the Ukraine worth a war?"
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:37 pm to udtiger
I think soon although I will say that I'm somewhat surprised they're choosing the dead of winter to do it.
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:38 pm to NewGrad1212
quote:
Putin wants NATO's assurance that Ukraine will never become a member, and they are reluctant to give it.
They will never give it, which Putin knows and has known from the start. But this posturing and his annexation of more ukrainian territory will cement the fact that Ukraine will never join NATO.
quote:
It won't just be Donbass.
Yes it will.
quote:
The question the west needs to ask is, "is the Ukraine worth a war?"
No, and Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and NATO have always been on the exact same page in that regard. There will not be a general war in Ukraine.
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:38 pm to choupiquesushi
quote:
Ukraine has around 3000 nukes....... How bad do they wanna stay independent
No they don't ... they dismantled them after we promised to protect them from Russia. The rest of the world is fixing to see how good our word is.
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:40 pm to RTRinTampa
quote:
they dismantled them after we promised to protect them from Russia. The rest of the world is fixing to see how good our word is.
We did no such thing. You clearly haven’t read the Budapest Memorandum or any of the bilateral treaties between the US and Ukraine. We have no obligation whatsoever to defend Ukraine, and the West/US militarily defending Ukraine was never once part of the deal for their forfeiting the USSR’s nukes.
We agreed to sell them weapons and “respect their sovereignty”. As did the UK and Russia. That is it. Our obligation to Ukraine is satisfied by us complaining to the UN and introducing a Security Council resolution that Russia will instantly veto.
This post was edited on 1/21/22 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:45 pm to udtiger
quote:
What do you think
Posted on 1/21/22 at 12:57 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
They won’t, and he knows it. Kiev also knows it, as does Brussels. There is zero possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, and every party that is even remotely interested knows that.
Bucharest Summit 2008 “NATO Leaders decided that Ukraine will be a member of the Alliance”
- Alexander Vinnikov - Head of NATO Representation to Ukraine, who continues to work in Ukraine to achieve reforms necessary for membership.
2020 - NATO granted Ukraine Enhance Opportunity Partner status.
2021 - Ukraine PM met with NATO leadership and stated their goal of membership and continue reforms to do so.
Sure looks like they are on a path…..
This post was edited on 1/21/22 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 1/21/22 at 1:01 pm to BobBoucher
quote:
Sure looks like they are on a path…..
Wake me up when they get a Membership Action Plan. Unless and until then, my point stands. They are not joining NATO, and are nowhere close to doing so. The flirting with them and Georgia back in 2008 was the same thing that’s happening right now—posturing.
This post was edited on 1/21/22 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 1/21/22 at 1:05 pm to udtiger
After the Olympics. China will invade Taiwan and Russia will invade the Ukraine simultaneously.
Posted on 1/21/22 at 1:06 pm to BobBoucher
Sounds like they just announced evacuations of Americans...I say under!
Posted on 1/21/22 at 1:11 pm to Crimson1st
quote:
Sounds like they just announced evacuations of Americans...I say under!
Posted on 1/21/22 at 1:12 pm to Indefatigable
You sound like the expert here, so let me ask you:
Why would the excuse of Russia wanting/needing a buffer be an acceptable excuse for invading/annexing anyone, when Russia basically dickslaps existing NATO members like France, Germany, and the UK around with their gas and oil?
Why would the excuse of Russia wanting/needing a buffer be an acceptable excuse for invading/annexing anyone, when Russia basically dickslaps existing NATO members like France, Germany, and the UK around with their gas and oil?
Posted on 1/21/22 at 1:13 pm to udtiger
Over.
I don’t see it happening.
The threat alone is enough to intimidate the west.
I don’t see it happening.
The threat alone is enough to intimidate the west.
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