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Message
TSR raises forecast for 2023 North Atlantic hurricane season amid favorable conditions.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 8/9/23 at 4:57 pm
quote:
In a recent update, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has raised its forecast for the North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023, anticipating a season that could be around 10% above the 1991-2020 climate norm.
This adjustment comes as meteorologists closely monitor various climate indicators and atmospheric conditions.
The updated forecast predicts an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of 140, surpassing the 30-year norm of 122. Additionally, TSR indicates a 33% probability of an above-normal North Atlantic ACE in 2023, a 54% chance of a near-normal ACE, and a mere 13% likelihood of a below-normal ACE season.
Experts at TSR point to the July-September trade wind speed as a significant factor contributing to the revised forecast. While El Niño conditions persist, the trade winds have exhibited an unexpected trend, being slightly weaker than usual.
This phenomenon suggests more favourable atmospheric conditions may persist through August and September, potentially enhancing hurricane activity.
The forecast predicts the formation of 3 intense hurricanes, 8 hurricanes, and 18 tropical storms. This contrasts with the 1991-2020 30-year averages of 3 intense hurricanes, 7 hurricanes, and 14 tropical storms.
The primary driver behind this raised forecast is the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, which are expected to create conducive conditions for heightened hurricane activity.
Despite the confidence in certain factors, TSR emphasises the existence of sizable uncertainties. While sea surface temperatures are projected to be significantly warmer than average, uncertainties surround the trade wind predictor’s potential for enhanced hurricane activity.
Moreover, the influence of unpredictable variables such as Saharan air outbreaks over the tropical Atlantic further complicates the accuracy of the forecast.
TSR’s final update for the 2023 North Atlantic hurricane season underscores the dynamic and complex nature of predicting hurricane activity.
LINK
I also want to include this two week NOAA hazard outlook.
14
Posted on 8/9/23 at 4:58 pm to GumboPot
I just don't really see it currently.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 4:59 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I just don't really see it currently.
Just curious, what are you looking at? Trade winds?
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I just don't really see it currently.
When the dust stops I’m afraid all hell is gonna break loose.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:02 pm to GumboPot
Ill settle for a few afternoon showers.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:03 pm to GumboPot
I should rephrase that. I'm not seeing an above average season right now, certainly with not enough to justify the confidence some seem to have with bumping up an already above average forecast.
It seems many are banking on the SSTs to override the background state.
It seems many are banking on the SSTs to override the background state.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:04 pm to GumboPot
If it means rain I’ll take it. I’m sick of these car note sized water bills.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:05 pm to GumboPot
Friend,
Human meteorology is the alchemy of our time.
Yours,
TulaneLSU
Human meteorology is the alchemy of our time.
Yours,
TulaneLSU
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:08 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
should rephrase that. I'm not seeing an above average season right now, certainly with not enough to justify the confidence some seem to have with bumping up an already above average forecast.
It seems many are banking on the SSTs to override the background state.
that and one would imagine this season might be truncated on the back end as el nino starts picking up and shear becomes more predominant in the Caribbean. End of September/october may be more hostile from that.
If it doesnt start picking up by the end of August, I would imagine september would have to just be storm after storm to get well above average.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:13 pm to GumboPot
quote:
How long is the dust expected to last? LINK
I saw that one, but it seems like an exagerated depiction of it.
This is what it looks like on satellite. The very light pink coming off Africa, crossing the Atlantic is the SAL dust.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:14 pm to gaetti15
quote:
If it doesnt start picking up by the end of August, I would imagine september would have to just be storm after storm to get well above average.
I hope we get nothing. I have no desire tuning up my generators.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:15 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
saw that one, but it seems like an exagerated depiction of it.
You ain't kidding. The one I linked is cartoonish compared to NOAA's.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:26 pm to GumboPot
Im not sold.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:28 pm to Duke
quote:
Im not sold.
I like reading this.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 5:55 pm to GumboPot
Getting out my checkbook now. How much extra tax should I pay so we can change this weather back to ideal?
Posted on 8/9/23 at 7:00 pm to 1609tiger
If TSR doesn’t say something to make the news they are just irrelevant. Frick em
Posted on 8/9/23 at 7:15 pm to GumboPot
quote:
The forecast predicts the formation of 3 intense hurricanes, 8 hurricanes, and 18 tropical storms.
Two weeks left in august, 4 in sept, 4 in oct. I know the season goes thru Nov but let’s be serious. That’s ten weeks. So in a 10 week period we’re going to see a storm every 3.8 days.
I mean, come on.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 7:18 pm to GumboPot
quote:
TSR indicates a 33% probability of an above-normal North Atlantic ACE in 2023, a 54% chance of a near-normal ACE, and a mere 13% likelihood of a below-normal ACE season.
So, could be more? Could be less? Could be the same? That's some damn fine research right there. I'm sure it'll be less if we'll just pay more taxes.
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