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Posted on 8/9/23 at 7:32 pm to GumboPot
Looks like lot of fish storms and east coast threats maybe.
Caribbean and Gulf are closed for business
Caribbean and Gulf are closed for business
Posted on 8/9/23 at 7:35 pm to Duke
quote:
Im not sold.
TSR saw my thread from yesterday and realized I jinxed it so they revised upward
It’s science bruh
Posted on 8/9/23 at 8:29 pm to TulaneLSU
quote:Perfect analogy.
Human meteorology is the alchemy of our time.
Posted on 8/9/23 at 8:54 pm to Duke
Im not as worried about the number of hurricanes this year. Im worried that it’s been so damn hot that anything that gets in the gulf will be supercharged.
Save us El Niño!!!
Save us El Niño!!!
Posted on 8/9/23 at 8:57 pm to GumboPot
Posted on 8/9/23 at 9:06 pm to GumboPot
I just don't see how those numbers are possible given that we're close to halfway through August already. It only takes 1 though...
Posted on 8/10/23 at 3:17 pm to GumboPot
quote:LINK
Record-high ocean temperatures are setting the stage for an active Atlantic hurricane season with explosive tropical development, but just one thing is missing: storms. There have been no tropical storms in the Atlantic basin in nearly a month, and none so far this year have come close to the United States.
But the busiest stretch of hurricane season kicks off in less than a week. And with ocean heat running high, experts are urging people to get their safety plans in place and prepare for tropical trouble.
A growing expert consensus is now forecasting an uptick in hurricane activity. An updated outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday called for an above-average hurricane season – an increase from the near-normal forecast it released in May.
“We have increased the chance for above normal activity to 60% from 30%,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. “The chances of a below normal season are now at only 15%.”
Posted on 8/10/23 at 4:12 pm to GEAUXT
quote:
It only takes 1 though...
Yep.
In this case, though, it literally takes more than one to meet these forecasts. It has been interesting to see one forecaster after another come in with more active forecasts, revising them up instead of down.
Posted on 8/10/23 at 4:59 pm to GumboPot
We are currently above normal for ACE, and the Atlantic should pick up here in the next week or so. So ending up 10% above normal isn't an outlandish prediction. I expect lots of ACE generated in the open Atlantic and North Atlantic well into October. However, Gulf and Caribbean activity should be below normal, but I do worry about something slipping across Florida and then turning north in the Gulf. Where have we seen that before?
Posted on 8/10/23 at 5:01 pm to rds dc
Not naming names not naming names
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