re: USA 30-man prelim WC squad announcement thread (ROSTER IN OP)

Betting odds are 13/5. That's probably fair. Not great, not ridiculous.

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I know we are extreme underdogs to win the whole thing but can someone give me a realistic shot at our odds of advancing our bracke? (which I hear is damn brutal) are we talking about Jacksonville Jaguars making the playoffs realistic?

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Imagine a 4 team NCAA baseball regional.

Germany is a 1990s LSU team.
Portugal is the 1983 UT team that won the CWS (with Cristiano Ronaldo as Roger Clemens)
Ghana is an average SEC team with good hitting and mediocre defense and pitching.
The USA is the Stony Brook team that went to the CWS. But our center fielder misjudges a lot of fly balls.

We could use Germany rolling through Portugal and Ghana and beating them soundly, thus giving them the opportunity to rest a few players against us... not to mention that it would mean Portugal and Ghana drop points.

But I would like to see us roll with:
Howard
Chandler/Cameron/Besler/Johnson
Jones/Bradley
Donovan/Dempsey/Zusi
Altidore

Playing Zusi on the same side as Johnson would be really dynamic I feel like as Johnson can overlap and Zusi can still provide some defensive cover when Fab is forward. I dunno, Zusi and Donovan would probably switch wings every so often anyways to provide a new look if they both start, so we will see.

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thus giving them the opportunity to rest a few players

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Germany likely won't be able to rest anyone.

Likely, at least one team will be at 4 points if they are at 6. And therefore they must at least tie or beat us to finish top of the group. They will not risk not finishing top.

Could they rest a Schweinsteiger with his current ankle issues? Sure. But its not like we're going to see their second XI out there. It will be close to their top choice players.

Looking over the roster some more, I think I have this about right:

BRAZIL LOCK
All 3 goalkeepers
Beasley
Besler
Cameron
Gonzalez
Johnson
Bradley
Jones
Zusi
Altidore
Dempsey
Donovan
Johannsson

And the battles for the last 8 spots should look like this...

Brooks v. Goodson
– Have to think Goodson has the upper hand here simply because of experience. Brooks has more talent, but he hasn't put it all together yet.
Prediction: Goodson

2 of Chandler, Evans, Parkhurst & Yedlin
– Of the group Yedlin is probably the longest shot to make it. Of the next three, I'd probably take Chandler and Parkhurst since both can play on either side of the backline (and are both better than Evans). But Klinsi has shown his love for Evans since the Jamaica goal. Timmy comes in with a lot of questions regarding his health and his relationship with the team.
Prediction: Chandler, Parkhurst

2 of Beckerman, Diskerud & Edu
– I debated labeling Beckerman as a lock, but ultimately decided against it. That said, he is way out in front in this race for a ticket. It ultimately comes down to if JK feels like he needs a midfield sub that is offensively-minded (Mix) or defensively-minded (Edu).
Prediction: Beckerman, Diskerud

2 of Bedoya, Corona, Davis & Green
– I'm still trying to figure out why Corona got the call to this. Also, I think Bedoya, like Beckerman, is a near lock and am also of the opinion that Jurgen promised Green a World Cup spot during the recruitment.
Prediction: Bedoya, Green

Boyd v. Wondo
– This is the most interesting battle of all, I think. Both are in great form at the moment. I used to be in the camp that thinks Wondo was not international quality, but ever since his dismal Gold Cup, he has made the most of his USMNT call-ups. Boyd is probably the better overall player. I'm very interested to see how these two perform in the upcoming friendlies.
Prediction: No idea

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Pepe, Coentrao, Moutinho . . .
Nani, Meireles, Joao Pereira, Bruno Alves, Veloso

are a bit better than "other guys"

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But would you put their current roster over their "golden generation" roster back in 2002?

Well said

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Yeah, I don't really know where this confidence regarding Portugal is coming from

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They weren't very good or consistent in qualifying, and were way too reliant upon CR.

Barely beat Luxembourg
Lost to Russia
Tied Northern Ireland
Tied Israel
Tied Israel again.

They didn't win their UEFA group and it was one of the weaker groups by far.

Qualified by beating Sweden in the play-off and didn't always look great doing it.

They have more quality players than we do. But they rely upon CR making plays and goals, and generally don't always defend well. Hell, Israel scored 3 on them.

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Yeah, I don't really know where this confidence regarding Portugal is coming from

They're really solid behind their front line, and God forbid they find someone else with a pulse to insert into their front three. They're going to be a pain in the arse for whoever manages to knock them out

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Yeah. Not sure how Nélson Oliveira has done this year in France? Postiga hasn't impressed at Lazio.

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They weren't very good or consistent in qualifying, and were way too reliant upon CR.

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They have a history of doing that shite

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Qualified by beating Sweden in the play-off and didn't always look great doing it.

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They did what they are good at