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Posted on 10/17/13 at 7:58 am to NOTORlOUSD
We have a few things to hope for -
Some upsets in the UEFA playoffs (except for France, as a non-seed, also losing).
Get a group with one of the European implosion teams (Netherlands or France or whoever) - one of them always seems to implode each WC.
Luck out with a lesser Africa side (not Ghana) along with a lesser European side.
I haven't looked at who the top 8 seeds are, but some of those are also less scary than others.
It does feel like a tougher world cup overall - how much of that is due to our own exposure and knowledge of the players for all of these teams though?
Some upsets in the UEFA playoffs (except for France, as a non-seed, also losing).
Get a group with one of the European implosion teams (Netherlands or France or whoever) - one of them always seems to implode each WC.
Luck out with a lesser Africa side (not Ghana) along with a lesser European side.
I haven't looked at who the top 8 seeds are, but some of those are also less scary than others.
It does feel like a tougher world cup overall - how much of that is due to our own exposure and knowledge of the players for all of these teams though?
Posted on 10/17/13 at 8:03 am to Tigerstark
quote:
I realize that there are too many for Pot 4, but is that a final decision that its Russia or just an example that the site is using?
Pot 4 as a whole looks worse than Pot 1 to me.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 8:13 am to Jwho77
Argentina
US
Cameroon
France
No bueno.
US
Cameroon
France
No bueno.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 8:51 am to Waffle House
Every time I simulate it we get in a group with Spain or Germany.
My last (and now final
) one -
Germany
US
Ghana
Italy
My last (and now final
) one - Germany
US
Ghana
Italy
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:28 am to Tigerstark
Germany
USA
Ecuador
Portugal
USA
Ecuador
Portugal
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:03 am to Bluefin
I had some time to kill this morning, so I looked at the probability of us ending up in a "group of death". Using the point assignments below, a group with 32-35 total points would be a GoD (13% chance overall) and a group with 31 points would be borderline (16% chance).
Our chances are higher because we are the highest rated team in Pot 2 (my ranks and FIFA's) and almost all of the worst teams are in our pot. We have a 57% chance of ending up in a group with at least 32 and a 27% chance of ending up in a group with 31. I think we should mentally prepare for that situation now.
Points*:
10 - Spain, Brazil, Germany
9 - Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland, Netherlands, Italy
8 - England, Chile, USA, Portugal
7 - Bosnia, Cote d'Ivoire, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine, France, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico
6 - Costa Rica, Algeria, Nigeria, Honduras
5 - Japan, Iran, South Korea, Australia, Cameroon
*Based on FIFA Rankings except 300 bonus points for Brazil
Our chances are higher because we are the highest rated team in Pot 2 (my ranks and FIFA's) and almost all of the worst teams are in our pot. We have a 57% chance of ending up in a group with at least 32 and a 27% chance of ending up in a group with 31. I think we should mentally prepare for that situation now.
Points*:
10 - Spain, Brazil, Germany
9 - Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland, Netherlands, Italy
8 - England, Chile, USA, Portugal
7 - Bosnia, Cote d'Ivoire, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine, France, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico
6 - Costa Rica, Algeria, Nigeria, Honduras
5 - Japan, Iran, South Korea, Australia, Cameroon
*Based on FIFA Rankings except 300 bonus points for Brazil
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:10 am to NOTORlOUSD
Just got Germany, Netherlands, and Chile. frick that noise.
I think the worst possible group would be Spain, Italy, and Ghana (cause frick Ghana).
Are the October FIFA rankings out?
I think the worst possible group would be Spain, Italy, and Ghana (cause frick Ghana).
Are the October FIFA rankings out?
This post was edited on 10/17/13 at 11:12 am
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:23 am to Vicks Kennel Club
If we needed any more incentive to root for New Zealand, this would be it.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:24 am to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
Are the October FIFA rankings out?
I think so, with the US getting ranked 13th.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:26 am to Broski
Now that I think about it, we are literally the most likely team in the tournament to end up in a Group of Death based on FIFA rankings and those projected pots. We need to do everything we possibly can to get seeded next time.
This post was edited on 10/17/13 at 11:33 am
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:26 am to cwil177
Also, it would be fan fricking tastic if Jordan could somehow eliminate Uruguay.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:31 am to Broski
quote:
Also, it would be fan fricking tastic if Jordan could somehow eliminate Uruguay.
Right, the field they gave assumes no upsets; thus, it is the worst-case scenario for tournament difficulty. A few upsets, especially among the European teams, could open things up.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:37 am to Jwho77
i think it's cool that the world cup is actually the "world cup" and they do it like this, but it does us absolutely no fricking favors
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:38 am to Jwho77
I only got one that I thought we had a chance to make it out of:
Colombia
Ivory Coast
B&H
A very talented team will have to badly underachieve for us to advance.
Colombia
Ivory Coast
B&H
A very talented team will have to badly underachieve for us to advance.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:40 am to cwil177
The only way we get seeded next time around is if we do well in this World Cup, win the 15 Gold Cup and then win the 17 Confed Cup...
Playing in CONCACAF qualification alone does is no favors in terms of the FIFA rankings.
Playing in CONCACAF qualification alone does is no favors in terms of the FIFA rankings.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:40 am to Waffle House
quote:
No bueno.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:42 am to Waffle House
This post was edited on 10/17/13 at 11:43 am
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:48 am to Dandy Lion
I'd really like to do a more in-depth program for this. I'm just too lazy to look up all of the rules.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:50 am to Tigerstark
quote:
My last (and now final ) one -
Germany
US
Ghana
Italy
That would be a fun trip to Brazil
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