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Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:37 am to FlexDawg
quote:
It Trump is head nationally, then it’s even uglier for Dems state by state. Republicans usually lose the popular vote on Election Day.
If a republican is ahead nationally the Democrat should have no chance of winning.
Electoral College favors Rs while popular vote nationally favors Dems.
A R ahead consistently in polling nationally SHOULD wipe the floor with a Dem electorally
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:38 am to Jake88
All the polling propaganda is based on polling conducted prior to 8/4 except for Rasmussen.
If the polling data helped Kamala they would be publishing it right now.
If the polling data helped Kamala they would be publishing it right now.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:38 am to FlexDawg
I assume they will all release polls this week
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:38 am to FlexDawg
quote:I think the only thing that matters is if they changed their frequency of polling once she started losing the honeymoon momentum. What was their polls before the 8/4 one? And the one before?
8/4 is a long time ago, hence the thread title. It’s currently 8/12.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:39 am to FlexDawg
Honestly, I expect Rasmussen to be off on the national polling numbers they report because in this and recent elections, the democrat has prevailed with the popular vote and the large cities are to thank for that.
Presidential elections now come down to PA, WI, MI, and to an extent, GA, AZ and NV.
Those are the areas that really matter. Every other state is going to remain either red or blue for the most part regardless of who the candidates are.
Presidential elections now come down to PA, WI, MI, and to an extent, GA, AZ and NV.
Those are the areas that really matter. Every other state is going to remain either red or blue for the most part regardless of who the candidates are.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:41 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
I just think Rasmussen does things a bit differently.
Rasmussen polls daily. You can see the data in the OP. When they publish the official poll to RCP it will be from the data they gathered for the entire week.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:43 am to FlexDawg
And some just haven't released any at all since Biden dropped out. Big firms too like CNN, NBC, Quinnipiac and Emerson. CNN is the most interesting because I believe they're daily tracking the same group like LA Times used to do. Emerson was running a poll every 9 days or so until 7/18 and they just inexplicably stopped.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:44 am to Fun Bunch
Also note that the bigger polling firms purchase polling data from one third party polling firm. That is the bigger polling firms use the same polling data. They publish different numbers because they weight the data differently.
Rasmussen gathers their own polling data, weights it accordingly and publishes. They are a fully independent polling firm form data gathering, analysis and publishing.
Rasmussen gathers their own polling data, weights it accordingly and publishes. They are a fully independent polling firm form data gathering, analysis and publishing.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:46 am to Bama Bird
quote:
daily tracking the same group like LA Times used to do
The LA Times tracking poll in 2016 was excellent.
They had to shut it down. It was going against the narrative too much.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:47 am to GumboPot
I have heard this cycle for the first time that several get their info from the same firm and then just weight it a little different. That’s crazy.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 11:55 am to FlexDawg
Rasmussen and Trafalgar are the only ones you need to follow. All of the others are junk push polls.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 12:01 pm to damnstrongfan
quote:
Rasmussen and Trafalgar are the only ones you need to follow. All of the others are junk push polls.
I showed people at work the Trafalgar poll often during the 2016 election season, and told them Trump was going to win. They didn’t believe me because they had never heard of Trafalgar.
We all know why they weren’t right in 2020 under the guise of Covid:
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 8/12/24 at 12:06 pm to FlexDawg
Rasmussen and Trafalgar have some unorthodox polling practices. For example, Rasmussen routinely drops people without landlines (their samples skew toward older folks with established residences and systematically exclude younger and more transient people). Trafalgar attempts to "correct" for social desirability bias (i.e. the "quiet Trump voter" phenomenon). While this is a noble idea, any good social scientist will tell you it is actually impossible because the parameters of social desirability are unknown and unknowable.
This has led these two polls in particular to make some wildly inaccurate predictions. Rasmussen famously made the worst 2018 Midterm predictions of any polling org according to Real Clear Politics (a conservative poll aggregator). They also underestimated Biden's 2020 popular vote margin by at least 4 percentage points.
Trafalgar hasn't performed much better. They accurately predicted Trump's 2016 win, but have whiffed on every election since then. They literally missed on every single swing state in 2020.
Have fun with the propaganda polls. I'm sure they will confirm all of your priors and you'll be surprised come November.
This has led these two polls in particular to make some wildly inaccurate predictions. Rasmussen famously made the worst 2018 Midterm predictions of any polling org according to Real Clear Politics (a conservative poll aggregator). They also underestimated Biden's 2020 popular vote margin by at least 4 percentage points.
Trafalgar hasn't performed much better. They accurately predicted Trump's 2016 win, but have whiffed on every election since then. They literally missed on every single swing state in 2020.
Have fun with the propaganda polls. I'm sure they will confirm all of your priors and you'll be surprised come November.
This post was edited on 8/12/24 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 8/12/24 at 12:07 pm to FlexDawg
Polls are worthless right now.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 12:09 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
hey literally missed on every single swing state in 2020.
they did not miss. use your brain. FRAUD ruined all the polls.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 12:13 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Polls are propaganda right now.
FIFY
Posted on 8/12/24 at 12:13 pm to FlexDawg
quote:
I showed people at work the Trafalgar poll often during the 2016 election season, and told them Trump was going to win. They didn’t believe me because they had never heard of Trafalgar.
Trafalgar also predicted the following people would win in 2022:
Mehmet Oz
Herschel Walker
Kari Lake
Blake Masters
(and others)
All of those people lost.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 12:42 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
Trafalgar also predicted the following people would win in 2022:
Trafalgar had Walker losing by 4 the day before the election.
Trafalgar was not far off from other pollsters in the other races you listed and were more accurate in many cases.
Posted on 8/12/24 at 1:14 pm to FlexDawg
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