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Why do folks on here feel good about midterms? Odds related
Posted on 10/9/26 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 10/9/26 at 3:57 pm
Polymarket
Not trolling or anything just trying to understand. Everywhere I look I see the odds of Republicans retaining either one as less than 50% yet in here people are feeling good?
Not trolling or anything just trying to understand. Everywhere I look I see the odds of Republicans retaining either one as less than 50% yet in here people are feeling good?
Posted on 10/9/26 at 3:59 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
Because much like r/pol is an echo chamber for commies, this is an echo chamber for conservatives
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:00 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
quote:
Not trolling or anything just trying to understand. Everywhere I look I see the odds of Republicans retaining either one as less than 50% yet in here people are feeling good?
This is the same headline we see every election. Polls are heavily skewed Democrat, so no one believes them anymore.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:00 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
When has the Poliboard ever been pessimistic?
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:00 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
Democrats have no strategy to win other than orange man bad. Their voting turnout in their own primary’s have been abysmal and the ones that had a large turnout they primaried crazy for even further left candidates. We also have no reason to believe polling that hasn’t been accurate the last decade.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:01 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
Well the odds are basically a coin flip the Republicans hold the House and most seem pretty comfortable they'll hold the Senate, although it'll probably be by no more of a margin than now which is pretty thin. Not sure how either side would feel super confident of complete and total domination of the other at the moment.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:01 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
I don’t feel great…but don’t think it’ll be quite the massacre the media is portraying. Hoping the Rs will hold the Senate.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:02 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
Let's start by discussing what Polymarket is.
Do you think it is a reflection or analysis of the races and the polling?
If I offer you 2:1 odds on a game...do you equate that to there being a 2:1 probability of one team winning?
Do you think it is a reflection or analysis of the races and the polling?
If I offer you 2:1 odds on a game...do you equate that to there being a 2:1 probability of one team winning?
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:12 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
I don't feel good nor bad about midterms. It's too far off. I'm more concerned with Kentucky. That's tomorrow night.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:13 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
Outstanding. 58 GOP Senators and 231 GOP Congressmen at a minimum.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:13 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
“Betting odds” not “probability odds”
House tries to position themselves in the middle of the money. So they don’t lose either way.
House tries to position themselves in the middle of the money. So they don’t lose either way.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:43 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
yeah here's the thing the polymarket's not real look how often it gets things wrong president harris.
the same people who buy scratch offs bet the poly market, mainly degenerate gamblers,
you want some anecdotal evidence, democrats aren't runny any ads here in arkansas, not on the radio, not on TV. what's that tell you Einstein.
the same people who buy scratch offs bet the poly market, mainly degenerate gamblers,
you want some anecdotal evidence, democrats aren't runny any ads here in arkansas, not on the radio, not on TV. what's that tell you Einstein.
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:46 pm to DeBoar
You’re dreaming up facts. Turnouts have been strong in most places…
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:49 pm to VOR
In most places? Throughout the entire country? And my curiosity is getting the best of me: I must ask, how exactly do you know this, ie what are you relying upon in support of this claim??
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:54 pm to davyjones
Because the Dems are aligned with one the most awful coalition of social rejects ever assembled??
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:55 pm to davyjones
I Keep up with politics in other states. I’m on my phone now and I’m not going to search out and post a link for you. Remember what happened within the last two years when Dems won governorships and also turned out for redistricting propositions…
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:56 pm to VOR
Okay show us which states are going to carry them to victory and don’t use polymarket
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:58 pm to Kenna City Solja
It's an echo chamber for republicans they're not conservatives and certainly aren't right wing
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:58 pm to VOR
quote:
You’re dreaming up facts. Turnouts have been strong in most places…
Didn’t you guarantee a Kamala victory?
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:59 pm to GeauxLaneTrain
I put 250 on kalshi to win 2800
Some dude put 3800 to win 44k
Some dude put 3800 to win 44k
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