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re: Why can’t we control 100 mile stretch of ocean?
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:49 am to SquatchDawg
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:49 am to SquatchDawg
Its not that we can't. We aren't willing to force the strait and provoke Iran to start lobbing missiles at everything that floats.
2
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:52 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
Agreed, but how can any threat with the capability to hit a tanker not identified and instantly hit from the air?
Because it can be launched from within a few thousand yards of the target (or closer) from a bass boat. There is no stopping that, outside of point defense/CIWS systems, which commercial ships and even some naval ships do not have.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:52 am to SquatchDawg
The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for us. The S Koreans, Japs, Europe, etc that get their oil from the straight need to get their asses down there and handle it. They have the capability but not the stones. They want us to assume all the risk in securing the transport and it’s BS. Trumps trying to do it diplomatically but I doubt it works.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:52 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
Agreed, but how can any threat with the capability to hit a tanker not identified and instantly hit from the air?
I would imagine many of the threats are coming from civilian looking boats with handheld weapons like RPGs. Disguising themselves as civilians was an effective tactic used by insurgents in Iraq & Afghanistan. You obviously can't blow up every civilian boat on the coast.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:53 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
If we can pick up a downed pilots heartbeat we should be able to find every possible launch point in the area.
Every possible lauch point? We're talking thousands of square miles considering Iran's coastline and islands, not to mention small watercraft, etc.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:56 am to Tigerdew
quote:
The simple answer is it's not our strait to control.
I think the question is, if we have completely dismantled their military, how is it possible they still have control of the strait?
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:59 am to Trauma14
quote:
I think the question is, if we have completely dismantled their military, how is it possible they still have control of the strait?
Do a little reading on how COIN operations went in Iraq. We annihilated Iraq's military in a month yet still fought there for 20 years.
Insurgent tactics is how.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:00 am to Bring Da Wood
quote:
The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for us. The S Koreans, Japs, Europe, etc that get their oil from the straight need to get their asses down there and handle it.
"We know that we caused this huge mess and disruption to your economies, but its totally your responsiblility to fix it!"
Awesome diplomacy there.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:01 am to SquatchDawg
Drones are a game changer.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:01 am to Tigerdew
quote:
The simple answer is it's not our strait to control.
Someone dig up Thomas Jefferson and tell him he was wrong.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:02 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
What am I missing here?
I’m guessing: Hundreds of miles of underground-stored drones that get more accurate every year. These drones can fly a long way. They are cheap and many of them.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:03 am to SquatchDawg
Securing the Strait is difficult due to asymmetric warfare and geography. Iran uses "swarms" of cheap fast-attack craft, drones, and mobile missile batteries hidden along a 1,000-mile coastline, making them hard to track and eliminate with air power alone. The narrow 21-mile width leaves seconds to intercept threats, while sea mines deployed from civilian boats can paralyze traffic for weeks. Environmental factors like dust and heat shimmer also degrade sensors. Ultimately, a total "lockdown" would require a massive, high-risk land and sea presence, as defense remains far more expensive than disruption.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:03 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
Why can’t we control 100 mile stretch of ocean?
Well first of all, it’s not an ocean.
And the entire Persian Gulf and northern Arabian Sea is at risk.
This post was edited on 4/9/26 at 10:05 am
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:03 am to Techdave
quote:
would imagine many of the threats are coming from civilian looking boats with handheld weapons like RPGs.
Given the situation why wouldn’t we make it clear that anything out there is fair game? We had no issue blowing up scarabs on the way from Venezuela.
This isn’t a troll…just trying to figure out how we can control the airspace but not eliminate threats to a specified area that everyone knew would be a focus.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:04 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
Agreed, but how can any threat with the capability to hit a tanker not identified and instantly hit from the air?
Let's just assume it's easy. So easy that, it's 99% successful. Some 30,000 tankers wen through the straight last year. Let's assume half were in the interest of Iran and they wouldn't hit those. That leaves 15,000. If we're 99% successful, that means 150 would be hit.
No company would operate in that environment. That's on top of all the other reasons brought up in this thread. And it would be expensive as frick.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:04 am to Lizardman2
quote:
Securing the Strait is difficult due to asymmetric warfare and geography. Iran uses "swarms" of cheap fast-attack craft, drones, and mobile missile batteries hidden along a 1,000-mile coastline, making them hard to track and eliminate with air power alone. The narrow 21-mile width leaves seconds to intercept threats, while sea mines deployed from civilian boats can paralyze traffic for weeks. Environmental factors like dust and heat shimmer also degrade sensors. Ultimately, a total "lockdown" would require a massive, high-risk land and sea presence, as defense remains far more expensive than disruption.
Thank you for this informed response.
This post was edited on 4/9/26 at 10:10 am
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:06 am to Trauma14
quote:
I think the question is, if we have completely dismantled their military
It appears we didn’t plan for them holding the straight (baffling) and the widespread dismantling has been exaggerated.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:07 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
make it clear that anything out there is fair game?
I'm not certain that blowing up every boat that is commercially fishing or recreational boating in the area is a great idea.
Even a veteran like me that wants Iran pounded into submission doesn't want legit fishermen killed.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:09 am to Indefatigable
quote:
Its not that we can't. We aren't willing to force the strait and provoke Iran to start lobbing missiles at everything that floats
That 100 miles is one of the most heavily and well fortified military stretches in the entire world. It's natural features alone (deep slopes of nothing but sheer cliff-faces, mountians and short, rock beaches) make it a virtual impossibility for anyone to invade/land and take over.
Add in missile, drone, small arms, and military forward installations hidden in all those spaces and other missle sites 100km from the coaist for additional firewpower and you're looking and the Maginot line x100, but with mines in the water, too.
It's Basically Normandy beach on ultra HGH inside of a shooting gallery.
Direct energy weapons from space or something that could level mountains are you're only options, but it still does not account for all the other missles that be fired from inside the country from hundreds of miles away at tankers moving 8 knots
This post was edited on 4/9/26 at 10:11 am
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:11 am to jeffsdad
quote:
Saudi Arabia has one in use but not large enough.
And that’s not safe either. It got hit a day or two ago.
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