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Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:51 pm to used2becool
quote:
Because the smartest people in the world are telling us to do it. People who have dedicated their whole life to studying this stuff. People who have forgotten more than you know.
Epidemiologists can say what a lockdown will do to the virus. But who can tell what this lockdown will do to the country? Has the world ever seen a lockdown like this across the globe, ever?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:55 pm to frogglet
quote:
Epidemiologists can say what a lockdown will do to the virus. But who can tell what this lockdown will do to the country?
Millions potentially infected, potentially close to 2 million dead. The economic losses are recoverable once the FUD ends, the lives are not.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:56 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
It's more like cutting off a gangrenous toe to prevent sepsis.
That’s the theory. If it would have been 10,000 deaths and we’re limiting it to 2,500, it’s probably not worth it from a strict ROI standpoint.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 11:59 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
The economic losses are recoverable once the FUD ends, the lives are not.
Recoverable? Sure, and the great depression was recoverable too, eventually. How long will it take to recover? How many businesses will go under? How many people will lose their job? We could easily see an actual 10%+ GDP loss, an actual economic depression. How long would it take to recover from that?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:00 am to the808bass
quote:
That’s the theory. If it would have been 10,000 deaths and we’re limiting it to 2,500, it’s probably not worth it from a strict ROI standpoint.
Lower bound estimates exceed that tremendously should we do nothing. Millions would likely need hospitilization, and triage become an ugly mess when we exceed 1 million in this country.
Like it or not, those are ugly numbers,
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:01 am to Kubotarip
Yep
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:06 am to frogglet
quote:
Recoverable? Sure, and the great depression was recoverable too, eventually. How long will it take to recover? How many businesses will go under? How many people will lose their job? We could easily see an actual 10%+ GDP loss, an actual economic depression. How long would it take to recover from that?
How bad would a million dead look?
I'm not a big Trump fan, obviously, but I'm over the moon that he has changed his tenor today. This has the potential to be very bad, and I'm pulling hard for him to get it right going forward.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:07 am to Bigbens42
quote:
Lower bound estimates
1) Who said “do nothing?”
Answer: no one.
Shutting down the economy for 7,500 influenza deaths would be unthinkable.
No one knows what the actual, real life numbers are. If you quote the “18M Texans are going to be infected,” I’ll laugh to myself and ignore all your future posts.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:08 am to frogglet
quote:
Recoverable? Sure, and the great depression was recoverable too, eventually. How long will it take to recover?
There’s actual mortality increase with unemployment increase. So for every life we’re saving by drastic economic measures, we may lose some on the back end.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:11 am to partyboy1930
quote:
Let that sink in and ask yourself - why the frick are we Shutting down our entire country when, even if you get it, it’s a cold that will pass? The media has totally mindfricked us into fearing a damn cold.
frick the media. Look at how China reacted to the virus. Look at Italy and listen to what the other European governments are saying - quarantine. It makes you wonder what the governments know about the virus that we don't know. Since the virus started very near a bioresearch lab that has at least a 5-year history of working with coronavirus from bats, it's not hard to figure out what some good questions would be. In China, some of the people that had the virus fairly early in the outbreak still test positive for the virus even though they have recovered from the virus. I think there may be something unusual about this virus that we don't know about yet. What happens in the long term to someone that has been infected? It's not the media reaction that worries me, it is the reaction of the various governments. Especially the reaction from the Chinese government - the quick quarantine or lockdown of over 700 million people. The CCP is not known for their concern for the citizens of China.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:13 am to Bigbens42
quote:
How bad would a million dead look?
I'm not a big Trump fan, obviously, but I'm over the moon that he has changed his tenor today. This has the potential to be very bad, and I'm pulling hard for him to get it right going forward.
We've had millions die before, before we had vaccines. This will be the first time we ever tried shutting down huge portions of the global economy to stop a disease. I don't see how people are so confident about it, without some real detailed analysis about what it will do.
In case you weren't aware, economic depression can kill millions, as well.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:14 am to LakeCharles
quote:
frick the media. Look at how China reacted to the virus. Look at Italy and listen to what the other European governments are saying - quarantine. It makes you wonder what the governments know about the virus that we don't know. Since the virus started very near a bioresearch lab that has at least a 5-year history of working with coronavirus from bats, it's not hard to figure out what some good questions would be. In China, some of the people that had the virus fairly early in the outbreak still test positive for the virus even though they have recovered from the virus. I think there may be something unusual about this virus that we don't know about yet. What happens in the long term to someone that has been infected? It's not the media reaction that worries me, it is the reaction of the various governments. Especially the reaction from the Chinese government - the quick quarantine or lockdown of over 700 million people. The CCP is not known for their concern for the citizens of China.
So, how many people do you think know the real story?
Seems a hell of a thing to be able to keep under wraps.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:15 am to Wednesday
quote:
And because we don’t want our hospitals to get overwhelmed.
We know people are going to get sick. We’re just trying to make sure it’s not all at one time.
Sort of like the panic rush on toilet paper.
We only have so many beds, respirators and Emergency Room docs
At what cost, and what benefit.
Your post is meaningless without being more specific. Should we save 1000 extra lives if it means a million jobs lost?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:18 am to LakeCharles
quote:
It makes you wonder what the governments know about the virus that we don't know.
Probably not a lot. Their curve is a lot lower than ours. They operate far closer to capacity and with far fewer pieces of equipment that we consider standard.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:20 am to the808bass
quote:
1) Who said “do nothing?”
Answer: no one
What is your suggestion?
quote:
Shutting down the economy for 7,500 influenza deaths would be unthinkable.
Shutting it down to limit damage to the economy is smart, in addition to saving lives.
Losses are baked in one way or another at this point, 2% GDP best case scenario, 8%(!) worst case, an extended outbreak where health services are utterly overwhelmed.
quote:
No one knows what the actual, real life numbers are. If you quote the “18M Texans are going to be infected,” I’ll laugh to myself and ignore all your future posts.
We have people who study this stuff for a living. Listening to them would be a good idea.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:34 am to Bigbens42
quote:
Losses are baked in one way or another at this point
Hogwash. They didn’t bake in with H1N1.
quote:
8%(!) worst case, an extended outbreak where health services are utterly overwhelmed.
We might see something approaching an 8% drop and not have our health services overwhelmed.
quote:
We have people who study this stuff for a living. Listening to them would be a good idea.
Not when I can look at their projections and compare them to real life and say, “Uh, no, idiot.”
Projecting 18M cases in Texas when China is leveling off at 80k doesn’t even pass the laugh test.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:39 am to mule74
You are preaching to the choir, mule74.
The story here is not the virus. It's the trillions in financial losses due to an overreaction to the virus.
We now have a financial crisis and not a health crisis.
The story here is not the virus. It's the trillions in financial losses due to an overreaction to the virus.
We now have a financial crisis and not a health crisis.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 12:42 am to used2becool
quote:
Because the smartest people in the world are telling us to do it. People who have dedicated their whole life to studying this stuff. People who have forgotten more than you know.
The same people who are using words like “could, if, possibly, it’s estimated, is our opinion, we think, etc. when describing what the future effects of the virus will be, sounds like they know little more than the average poster here.
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