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re: When a lib says Trump inherited a hot economy.

Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:23 am to
Posted by Willie Stroker
Member since Sep 2008
16889 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:23 am to
quote:


Of course real wage is tied to inflation but it doesn't change the reality that americans are working more hours for less money. I'm not playing a game of gotcha I asked a genuine question because I don't know the answer..



More hours for less money? You might be tempted to draw that conclusion from aggregated data. But take a look at unemployment rates by age group. People over the age of 55 have a relatively unchanged unemployment rate. But there is a very noticeable improvement in the unemployment rate among much lower age groups. People tend to earn lower wages in their youth. This is tied to the value of experience and let’s not overlook the effect of wage rates of starter jobs on aggregated data.
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:24 am to
quote:

The huge reserve NILF pool mitigates wage pressure as well.

the participation rate has gone sideways since 2015, and jobs continue to be added at a rate around 200k per month, and the headline unemployment rate is low. and, inflation itself has been below target until the last couple of months. if the recent rise in nominal wage rates is matched (or more than matched) by inflation measures, it's not really an economic thing to be touted
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
99330 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:26 am to
quote:

When a lib says Trump inherited a hot economy


Just proves how dumb they are
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:30 am to
quote:

there is a very noticeable improvement in the unemployment rate among much lower age groups. People tend to earn lower wages in their youth.

now this is something worth looking into, although its effect doesn't seem likely to be large. this only breaks the age buckets into 2 categories but year-over-year weekly wages have dropped for all categories except young women

LINK

a better breakdown is probably available on another page for a comparison over time, i might look into it later

ETA after looking at employment/population ratio for 55+: it's increasing steadily just as it is for under 55. so lower-paid younger workers can't explain flat real wages
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 8:41 am
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:13 pm to
so what we've learned in the last few posts is precisely what i am always noting - certain people want to get bogged down in semantics, be misleading and miss the forest for the trees. example, claiming that labor participation is "sideways" while not acknowledging the aging population and natural retirements. trump is stabilizing labor participation after it has been dropping steadily.

again, wages are up. unemployment is down. people are moving back into the workforce. chini, eu and mexico are coming around on trade. canada appears to be next. by every measure, trump's policies are having a positive effect. it doesn't matter how much data or evidence is presented. they are going to be obtuse about it because they have tds.

and i have always agreed that the prez has a limited effect on the economy. the president's job is to get govt out of the way and let people do what they do, which is precisely what trump did.
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

certain people want to get bogged down in semantics, be misleading and miss the forest for the trees

crying about getting called on multiple bullshite underlying assertions, mograyback-style


quote:

it doesn't matter how much data or evidence is presented. they are going to be obtuse

posted by the same guy, in the very same post, who cries about getting "bogged down" by data and "missing the forest for the trees" unironically

lol, just lol
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 3:57 pm
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:14 pm to
quote:

multiple bullshite underlying assertions
i cited articles for precisely the point i made buttchugger

good gosh you are insufferable and idiotic

quote:

who cries about getting "bogged down" by data and "missing the forest for the trees" unironically
i cited factual statistics for the points i made

you, otoh, are constantly getting owned by almost everyone on this board and are universally ridiculed

i also noticed you didn't even engage the points i made. you just posted your customary idiotic bluster.

hey care to comment on the thread that you have been ducking?

you are a frickin idiot
Posted by AlceeFortier
Member since Dec 2016
1795 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 5:07 am to
the showman at his best.
Posted by Napoleon
Kenna
Member since Dec 2007
74771 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 6:12 am to
You can't honestly say that Obama was handed a better economy than Trump. You can and will downvote because you know it's true and you seek reaffirmation not facts. You can't honestly say it.

This has been a long bull market.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129562 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 6:23 am to
Melt
Posted by Mo Jeaux
Member since Aug 2008
64452 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 6:24 am to
quote:

You can't honestly say that Obama was handed a better economy than Trump


Of course that’s not what the OP said, and I hope that you realize that.
Posted by Napoleon
Kenna
Member since Dec 2007
74771 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:03 am to
Melt? Lol
Your reply speaks volumes on your lack of the ability to articulate a coherent answer.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 7:22 am
Posted by Icansee4miles
Trolling the Tickfaw
Member since Jan 2007
32301 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:07 am to
This is the new rallying cry and expect to hear it a lot from Barry as he has decided to grace the country with his presence again.
Posted by roadGator
DeBoar’s dome
Member since Feb 2009
158987 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:08 am to
quote:

You're away speaks volumes on your lack of the ability to articulate a coherent answer. 


:cringe:
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:58 am to
quote:

i cited articles for precisely the point i made

lmao, it's a guilty pleasure of mine to enjoy when bigmouth idiots self-own as hard as you do.

for the second time, not a single one of your articles addressed real wages, which is what you were responding to. they were all about nominal wages. i enjoyed that you had to make oh it so painfully obvious that you don't know the difference though, so there's that.
quote:

i also noticed you didn't even engage the points i made

make some points you can support, and support them with something other than a blind link that doesn't actually support the specific thing you say.

(maybe after learning the definition of real wages, we can start with that one!)

if you can successfully do this for once in your life, we can move on to your other claims, like the one about the labor force participation rate's "dynamic turnaround under trump" as well!
quote:

hey care to comment on the thread that you have been ducking?


in general i'll come and go as i please, just like everyone else. i certainly get left hanging in threads in the middle of back & forths all the damn time, and don't know the supposed thread you're talking about. something tells me you don't know what thread you're talking about, either.
Posted by MStant1
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2010
4558 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:21 am to
quote:

if obama is responsible for the economy turning around and trump's policies are the antithesis of obama's, shouldn't the economy be tanking instead of growing? trump is enacting literally the opposite of what obama did yet, the economy continues to grow. trump's policies should be undoing the progress made by obama's policies


Because economies are incredibly complex and effects of fiscal policy are frequently debated amongst economists. I am also of the opinion that presidents have less immediate impact on the economy than we the people assume. I think monetary policy plays a bigger role and obviously the Fed has been quite active for the past 10 years.

We aren’t even two years in and the only major legislation that Trump has signed has been the tax bill, and I think it’s still too early to truly say what the effects of that are (and I’m largely supportive of it).
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
140633 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:22 am to
quote:

the participation rate has gone sideways since 2015
2016.
It has gone sideways since 2016, despite an increased pool of >65y/os remaining in the workforce during the Obama term. Eventually, one would expect an inflow of that pool into the NILF category which would counter outflow of younger workers.
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:46 am to
quote:

2016.

actually i think 2015 is being too harsh, and 2014 would have been just as fair

but that's beside the point. i'll agree that flows from out of the LF into employment mitigate wage pressure, and that's why i've never bought that we're at full employment yet. but that still doesn't make nominal wage gains that are wiped out by inflation an economic thing to tout
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:35 pm to
quote:

bigmouth idiots
coming from you, more evidence of your idiocy

quote:

not a single one of your articles addressed real wages
i typed an entire paragraph responding to this stupid point already. good job addressing it

quote:

i'll come and go as i please
scared. that's all you had to say

have you ever been checked for asperger's?

quote:

blind link
so that you can't complain about this anymore

quote:
do you actually think this proves that there are systematic revisions made to make obama look good?
yes

quote:
i guess since i have provided two anecdotes to your one
interesting how you went from denial to admission. thank you. you can drop the smug bullcrap attitude. you were wrong

up to this point, i have provided 5 articles. i have also pulled out the direct quotes because you're too lazy to do your own work which is probably the reason why you have this irrational denial

quote:
here's not one but two (!) examples of upward revisions in 2015
i wonder if you ever get tired of being wrong. july 2015 was initially revised upward but then revised again. SAD FACE

"Caveat on the use of BLS Jobs Data

The monthly headline data ends up being significantly revised for months after the initial release - and is subject also to annual revisions. The question remains how seriously can you take the data when first released."

regarding july 2015

---------------------------------------------------------

obama misled the public on how "good" the economy was doing? I DON'T BELIEVE IT.

most of the jobs were part time jobs anyway

---------------------------------------------------------

from the bls oct 2015 report

"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000 to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 167,000 per month."

oops, 2015 wasn't so great after all. that dang bls!

---------------------------------------------------------

it seems that obama's 2015 legacy was quite controversial

controversial birth/death model

as usual, the numbers don't add up

obama's hilarious farewell address

i fully realize that you are going to fight the effort to actually look at this info, much less respond to it but, there it is anyway. the amount of corroboration i have provided should be more than enough for you to understand the facile point - there was a pattern of cooking the numbers. this brings up the larger point, obama's economic legacy was anemic and he tried repeatedly to mislead the public about it.
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:46 pm to
oh i guess we're back to you ignoring the whole history of revisions in favor of your little googled and cherry-picked sample, and we'll need to get past that before we talk some more about your failure to understand what "real wages" means.

in that case why don't you, for the first time ever, state clearly how anything in any article that you linked establishes your claim that there were systematic revisions made to make obama look good?

as i indicated in the response to that post you pasted, you clearly had no idea what proof of your claim entailed at the time. but you don't have that excuse any more, as i have told you explicitly many times over that you need to confront the whole history to even begin to be able to make an argument about a systematic bias.

can't wait to see you bitch out, again, and i'll also be looking forward to the next objectively wrong and dumb thing you say about various publicly-available stats.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 8:47 pm
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