- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: When a lib says Trump inherited a hot economy.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:23 am to bmy
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:23 am to bmy
quote:
Of course real wage is tied to inflation but it doesn't change the reality that americans are working more hours for less money. I'm not playing a game of gotcha I asked a genuine question because I don't know the answer..
More hours for less money? You might be tempted to draw that conclusion from aggregated data. But take a look at unemployment rates by age group. People over the age of 55 have a relatively unchanged unemployment rate. But there is a very noticeable improvement in the unemployment rate among much lower age groups. People tend to earn lower wages in their youth. This is tied to the value of experience and let’s not overlook the effect of wage rates of starter jobs on aggregated data.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:24 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The huge reserve NILF pool mitigates wage pressure as well.
the participation rate has gone sideways since 2015, and jobs continue to be added at a rate around 200k per month, and the headline unemployment rate is low. and, inflation itself has been below target until the last couple of months. if the recent rise in nominal wage rates is matched (or more than matched) by inflation measures, it's not really an economic thing to be touted
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:26 am to KeyserSoze999
quote:
When a lib says Trump inherited a hot economy
Just proves how dumb they are
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:30 am to Willie Stroker
quote:
there is a very noticeable improvement in the unemployment rate among much lower age groups. People tend to earn lower wages in their youth.
now this is something worth looking into, although its effect doesn't seem likely to be large. this only breaks the age buckets into 2 categories but year-over-year weekly wages have dropped for all categories except young women
LINK
a better breakdown is probably available on another page for a comparison over time, i might look into it later
ETA after looking at employment/population ratio for 55+: it's increasing steadily just as it is for under 55. so lower-paid younger workers can't explain flat real wages
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 8:41 am
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:13 pm to 90proofprofessional
so what we've learned in the last few posts is precisely what i am always noting - certain people want to get bogged down in semantics, be misleading and miss the forest for the trees. example, claiming that labor participation is "sideways" while not acknowledging the aging population and natural retirements. trump is stabilizing labor participation after it has been dropping steadily.
again, wages are up. unemployment is down. people are moving back into the workforce. chini, eu and mexico are coming around on trade. canada appears to be next. by every measure, trump's policies are having a positive effect. it doesn't matter how much data or evidence is presented. they are going to be obtuse about it because they have tds.
and i have always agreed that the prez has a limited effect on the economy. the president's job is to get govt out of the way and let people do what they do, which is precisely what trump did.
again, wages are up. unemployment is down. people are moving back into the workforce. chini, eu and mexico are coming around on trade. canada appears to be next. by every measure, trump's policies are having a positive effect. it doesn't matter how much data or evidence is presented. they are going to be obtuse about it because they have tds.
and i have always agreed that the prez has a limited effect on the economy. the president's job is to get govt out of the way and let people do what they do, which is precisely what trump did.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:49 pm to bfniii
quote:
certain people want to get bogged down in semantics, be misleading and miss the forest for the trees
crying about getting called on multiple bullshite underlying assertions, mograyback-style
quote:
it doesn't matter how much data or evidence is presented. they are going to be obtuse
posted by the same guy, in the very same post, who cries about getting "bogged down" by data and "missing the forest for the trees" unironically
lol, just lol
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:14 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:i cited articles for precisely the point i made buttchugger
multiple bullshite underlying assertions
good gosh you are insufferable and idiotic
quote:i cited factual statistics for the points i made
who cries about getting "bogged down" by data and "missing the forest for the trees" unironically
you, otoh, are constantly getting owned by almost everyone on this board and are universally ridiculed
i also noticed you didn't even engage the points i made. you just posted your customary idiotic bluster.
hey care to comment on the thread that you have been ducking?
you are a frickin idiot
Posted on 9/12/18 at 5:07 am to Seldom Seen
the showman at his best.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 6:12 am to KeyserSoze999
You can't honestly say that Obama was handed a better economy than Trump. You can and will downvote because you know it's true and you seek reaffirmation not facts. You can't honestly say it.
This has been a long bull market.
This has been a long bull market.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 6:24 am to Napoleon
quote:
You can't honestly say that Obama was handed a better economy than Trump
Of course that’s not what the OP said, and I hope that you realize that.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:03 am to the808bass
Melt? Lol
Your reply speaks volumes on your lack of the ability to articulate a coherent answer.
Your reply speaks volumes on your lack of the ability to articulate a coherent answer.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 7:22 am
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:07 am to KeyserSoze999
This is the new rallying cry and expect to hear it a lot from Barry as he has decided to grace the country with his presence again.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:08 am to Napoleon
quote:
You're away speaks volumes on your lack of the ability to articulate a coherent answer.
:cringe:
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:58 am to bfniii
quote:
i cited articles for precisely the point i made
lmao, it's a guilty pleasure of mine to enjoy when bigmouth idiots self-own as hard as you do.
for the second time, not a single one of your articles addressed real wages, which is what you were responding to. they were all about nominal wages. i enjoyed that you had to make oh it so painfully obvious that you don't know the difference though, so there's that.
quote:
i also noticed you didn't even engage the points i made
make some points you can support, and support them with something other than a blind link that doesn't actually support the specific thing you say.
(maybe after learning the definition of real wages, we can start with that one!)
if you can successfully do this for once in your life, we can move on to your other claims, like the one about the labor force participation rate's "dynamic turnaround under trump" as well!
quote:
hey care to comment on the thread that you have been ducking?
in general i'll come and go as i please, just like everyone else. i certainly get left hanging in threads in the middle of back & forths all the damn time, and don't know the supposed thread you're talking about. something tells me you don't know what thread you're talking about, either.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:21 am to bfniii
quote:
if obama is responsible for the economy turning around and trump's policies are the antithesis of obama's, shouldn't the economy be tanking instead of growing? trump is enacting literally the opposite of what obama did yet, the economy continues to grow. trump's policies should be undoing the progress made by obama's policies
Because economies are incredibly complex and effects of fiscal policy are frequently debated amongst economists. I am also of the opinion that presidents have less immediate impact on the economy than we the people assume. I think monetary policy plays a bigger role and obviously the Fed has been quite active for the past 10 years.
We aren’t even two years in and the only major legislation that Trump has signed has been the tax bill, and I think it’s still too early to truly say what the effects of that are (and I’m largely supportive of it).
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:22 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:2016.
the participation rate has gone sideways since 2015
It has gone sideways since 2016, despite an increased pool of >65y/os remaining in the workforce during the Obama term. Eventually, one would expect an inflow of that pool into the NILF category which would counter outflow of younger workers.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:46 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
2016.
actually i think 2015 is being too harsh, and 2014 would have been just as fair
but that's beside the point. i'll agree that flows from out of the LF into employment mitigate wage pressure, and that's why i've never bought that we're at full employment yet. but that still doesn't make nominal wage gains that are wiped out by inflation an economic thing to tout
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:35 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:coming from you, more evidence of your idiocy
bigmouth idiots
quote:i typed an entire paragraph responding to this stupid point already. good job addressing it
not a single one of your articles addressed real wages
quote:scared. that's all you had to say
i'll come and go as i please
have you ever been checked for asperger's?
quote:so that you can't complain about this anymore
blind link
quote:
do you actually think this proves that there are systematic revisions made to make obama look good?
yes
quote:
i guess since i have provided two anecdotes to your one
interesting how you went from denial to admission. thank you. you can drop the smug bullcrap attitude. you were wrong
up to this point, i have provided 5 articles. i have also pulled out the direct quotes because you're too lazy to do your own work which is probably the reason why you have this irrational denial
quote:
here's not one but two (!) examples of upward revisions in 2015
i wonder if you ever get tired of being wrong. july 2015 was initially revised upward but then revised again. SAD FACE
"Caveat on the use of BLS Jobs Data
The monthly headline data ends up being significantly revised for months after the initial release - and is subject also to annual revisions. The question remains how seriously can you take the data when first released."
regarding july 2015
---------------------------------------------------------
obama misled the public on how "good" the economy was doing? I DON'T BELIEVE IT.
most of the jobs were part time jobs anyway
---------------------------------------------------------
from the bls oct 2015 report
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000 to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 167,000 per month."
oops, 2015 wasn't so great after all. that dang bls!
---------------------------------------------------------
it seems that obama's 2015 legacy was quite controversial
controversial birth/death model
as usual, the numbers don't add up
obama's hilarious farewell address
i fully realize that you are going to fight the effort to actually look at this info, much less respond to it but, there it is anyway. the amount of corroboration i have provided should be more than enough for you to understand the facile point - there was a pattern of cooking the numbers. this brings up the larger point, obama's economic legacy was anemic and he tried repeatedly to mislead the public about it.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:46 pm to bfniii
oh i guess we're back to you ignoring the whole history of revisions in favor of your little googled and cherry-picked sample, and we'll need to get past that before we talk some more about your failure to understand what "real wages" means.
in that case why don't you, for the first time ever, state clearly how anything in any article that you linked establishes your claim that there were systematic revisions made to make obama look good?
as i indicated in the response to that post you pasted, you clearly had no idea what proof of your claim entailed at the time. but you don't have that excuse any more, as i have told you explicitly many times over that you need to confront the whole history to even begin to be able to make an argument about a systematic bias.
can't wait to see you bitch out, again, and i'll also be looking forward to the next objectively wrong and dumb thing you say about various publicly-available stats.
in that case why don't you, for the first time ever, state clearly how anything in any article that you linked establishes your claim that there were systematic revisions made to make obama look good?
as i indicated in the response to that post you pasted, you clearly had no idea what proof of your claim entailed at the time. but you don't have that excuse any more, as i have told you explicitly many times over that you need to confront the whole history to even begin to be able to make an argument about a systematic bias.
can't wait to see you bitch out, again, and i'll also be looking forward to the next objectively wrong and dumb thing you say about various publicly-available stats.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 8:47 pm
Popular
Back to top


1







