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Started By
Message
re: When a lib says Trump inherited a hot economy.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:50 pm to 90proofprofessional
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:50 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:90 speak for "i don't have a response"
googled and cherry-picked sample
quote:again, already responded to that. but i get why you don't understand that. totally get it
we'll need to get past that before we talk some more about your failure to understand what "real wages" means.
quote:um, basically every word of every article. let's see you try it. cite those articles and tell all those authors why/how they are wrong. turn off "drag race", zhe up and let's see you do something substantive for the first time ever
state clearly how anything in any article that you linked establishes your claim that there were systematic revisions made to make obama look good?
quote:for the one millionth time, not my claim genius
your claim
quote:says the chicken who still has not responded to the former issue nor the paragraph i just posted about the current issue. you are the biggest time waster in the history of internet message boards. and the biggest chicken in the history of the world
bitch out, again
quote:you mean like the articles i just posted to substantiate my point?
various publicly-available stats.
asperger's. look into it. i'm not the only person telling you that
1
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:59 pm to MStant1
quote:this is easy. prez 1 - lib policies. economy allegedly growing. prez 2 - conservative policies. economy actually growing. there's no real debate here
effects of fiscal policy are frequently debated amongst economists
quote:then why is obama getting credit for a "turnaround?" shouldn't that have happened after his term?
presidents have less immediate impact on the economy than we the people assume
quote:
the only major legislation that Trump has signed has been the tax bill
yeah. never mind that list of 22 policies i posted that have already been implemented quote:not the question
it’s still too early to truly say what the effects of that are
so, attempt #1 - total FAIL
Posted on 9/13/18 at 5:03 am to bfniii
quote:
this is easy. prez 1 - lib policies. economy allegedly growing. prez 2 - conservative policies. economy actually growing. there's no real debate here
Awesome retort, man. Well done.
quote:
then why is obama getting credit for a "turnaround?" shouldn't that have happened after his term?
My main argument hasn’t been so much to give Obama credit as it is to say that the economy wasn’t “turned around” when Trump was elected. As I and a few others on this thread have stated, the economy was already growing and was stable when Trump was elected (i.e., it had already been turned around since the recession). It’s really not even a debate that job growth and unemployment numbers under Obama’s last two years are on par with what is occurring during Trump’s first two years.
Even GDP for 2018 is still too early to tell. While I expect it will beat Obama’s “best” year, a lot of the current chest beating is over one quarter at 4.2 (which even Obama beat that rate in 4 different quarters throughout his presidency). That said I don’t want to take away from GDP because I do think it will be a good year when all said and done.
Even if one were to give credit to Obama, one can more easily judge the effects of his administration as the peak of the recession was in 2009 and he hasn’t been president in nearly 2 years. Whereas Trump isn’t even mid-way through his first term.
quote:
yeah. never mind that list of 22 policies i posted that have already been implemented
Emphasis on major, but we can agree to disagree on that definition.
quote:
not the question so, attempt #1 - total FAIL
Your retorts were the equivalent of nuh-uh!. You can disagree with my response and that is ok, but I did directly answer you.
Posted on 9/13/18 at 5:13 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Facts are facts. Sorry.
You only want to discuss certain ones it would seem
You ignore every metric that shows that the economy was trending in the right direction and obsess over the negative ones
You're a pathetic loser and a hack
Posted on 9/13/18 at 5:50 am to bfniii
quote:
90 speak for "i don't have a response"
a cherry-picked sample tends not to be representative of the whole. that's why a cherry-picked sample isn't useful. and it's why you're scared to come out from behind it. this simple response is all that's necessary and was immediately given at the time. confront all the data, or keep being scared. up to you
quote:
um, basically every word of every article
substantiate that, lazy arse
where is the evidence of "doctoring" the official data? where is the consistent pattern? how was it different under obama than others?
quote:
cite those articles and tell all those authors why/how they are wrong
i didn't say they were wrong. i said they fail to support your argument. several times now.
quote:
you are the biggest time waster in the history of internet message boards. and the biggest chicken in the history of the world
that's quite a melt, even for you, just because i won't let you off the hook about your hallucinations of conspiracy within our statistical agencies. the time wouldn't be wasted if you'd just do what you have to do to support it
quote:
you mean like the articles i just posted to substantiate my point?
like the one where you respond to a claim about real wages with articles about nominal wages. or assert a "dynamic turnaround" that the data do not show
Posted on 9/13/18 at 7:23 am to Powerman
quote:Oh my
You're a pathetic loser and a hack
quote:Perhaps you missed the title of this thread? or do you actually think Trump inherited a hot economy?
You only want to discuss certain ones it would seem
Posted on 9/13/18 at 7:47 am to Powerman
quote:Radiosilence?
Powerman
Ironically, you based your conniption on a post to which the addressee's reply was
quote:
Fair response
Posted on 9/13/18 at 7:48 am to NC_Tigah
Some of your points are certainly fair
But the complete obsession over only the negative numbers during those years while putting on blinders to everything else is just comically stupid
But the complete obsession over only the negative numbers during those years while putting on blinders to everything else is just comically stupid
Posted on 9/13/18 at 8:06 am to Powerman
quote:All in context of the title. There are no "blinders". My characterization of the Obama Economy is "tepid". How would you characterize it?
But the complete obsession over only the negative numbers during those years while putting on blinders to everything else is just comically stupid
Posted on 9/13/18 at 8:35 am to MStant1
quote:
As I and a few others on this thread have stated, the economy was already growing and was stable when Trump was elected (i.e., it had already been turned around since the recession). It’s really not even a debate that job growth and unemployment numbers under Obama’s last two years are on par with what is occurring during Trump’s first two years.
You can learn everything by watching the FED.
At the beginning of Obama's second term if everything was "OK", "stable" and "in good shape" the FED would have slowly started raising rates to reflect this. They didn't. They kept the discount rate basically at zero during Obama's entire second term. Rates at "zero" year after year means the economy isn't stable. It means something is wrong.
Why did they(the FED) keep rates at zero??? They had no choice. Obama's economy was weak and they had to PROP IT UP.
The economy under Obama was a mirage. Rates should have started/been allowed to normalize 3 to 4 years after the financial crisis. Didn't happen. The FED kept rates at zero because they had to.
Trump gets into office. Commits to deregulation. Commits to tax cuts. Commits to get the economy moving. The FED responds by raising the discount rate. It is what they should do.
This just shows you policy does matter.
Posted on 9/13/18 at 8:39 am to frogtown
quote:
It means something is wrong.
all it means is that inflation is below the long-run target and/or unemployment is above the long-run equilibrium, as is usually the case in the years following a recession
This post was edited on 9/13/18 at 8:40 am
Posted on 9/13/18 at 9:56 am to frogtown
Overly simplistic view and ignores the multitude of factors that influence the fed’s decision. Does some of Trump’s policies and tax plan influence the Fed’s outlook? Most likely to some degree, but it’s not like Powell was like oh new tax plan? Let's raise rates.
Is the economy stronger now? Of course, the economy has continued to grow for the past two years, just as the economy in 2016 was stronger than 2015, than 2014, etc through 2009.
Is the economy stronger now? Of course, the economy has continued to grow for the past two years, just as the economy in 2016 was stronger than 2015, than 2014, etc through 2009.
This post was edited on 9/13/18 at 11:57 am
Posted on 9/13/18 at 10:31 am to MStant1
quote:Perhaps, but I'd bet you'd agree that the Fed uses rates reductions to stimulate an underperforming economy, and rate increases to cool an overheated economy. Insofar as rates were historically low throughout Obama's Presidency, they certainly aided his GDP numbers.
Overly simplistic view and ignores the multitude of factors that influence the fed’s decision.
IMO though, Yellin was 18-24mos late in raising rates based on Obamanomics' performance. The economy was certainly not hot, but it was stable enough to allow Yellin to raise rates. So you're right, directly tying FedFunds to the economy may be less fair for 2015, 2016.
quote:Again, there was an upward inflection point Nov2016, and we've outperformed expectations since. There is a difference both in confidence and performance. Obama and/or his peeps trying to take credit for that is silly.
Is the economy stronger now? Of course, the economy has continued to grow for the past two years, just as the economy in 2016 was stronger than 2015, than 2014, etc
Earlier, I mentioned a CEO describing Obamanomics as Corporate Waterboarding, but I couldn't find the quote. Here it is, and it's telling.
quote:
Sun Microsystems co-founder Scott McNealy told CNBC on Wednesday that CEOs appear to be relieved that the eight years of economic "waterboarding" by the Obama administration has stopped.
"I've been talking to lots of CEOs. I had one who said it very succinctly, a very large Fortune 20-type CEO, and he said, 'All of a sudden after the election, the waterboarding, the eight years of waterboarding stopped,'" said McNealy, who voted for Donald Trump.
"I think that is a strong feeling of a lot of CEOs out there," McNealy told "Squawk Box." "The regulations are coming down. The attacks from the government are coming down."
LINK
Posted on 9/13/18 at 12:10 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Perhaps, but I'd bet you'd agree that the Fed uses rates reductions to stimulate an underperforming economy, and rate increases to cool an overheated economy. Insofar as rates were historically low throughout Obama's Presidency, they certainly aided his GDP numbers.
Agreed, but I would argue the fed's policies through QE and keeping the rates low was more about keeping liquidity in the market vs any sort of direct counter-balance to Obama's policies. Yellin was essentially continuing Bernanke's policies of maintaining liquidity in the market to prevent another great depression.
quote:
Again, there was an upward inflection point Nov2016, and we've outperformed expectations since. There is a difference both in confidence and performance. Obama and/or his peeps trying to take credit for that is silly.
I watched Kevin Hassett's press conference too, but I wasn't sold on the "inflection" he spoke about. AP had a decent article responding to his press conference. While they didn't outright disagree to a lot of what Hassett said, they definitely added more context.
AP fact check: Are Trump policies boosting the US Economy
Notably regarding the inflection:
quote:
If you look at a chart of monthly job gains or the economy’s growth rate, that inflection point is hard to spot. Hassett notably did not include in his presentation any mention of overall job creation or the broadest measurement of the economy’s output, GDP. That’s probably because the growth rate Trump repeatedly cites, the 4.2 percent expansion at an annual rate that occurred in the April-June quarter, isn’t out of line with Obama’s record. The economy grew more quickly than that four times during Obama’s eight years in office.
Posted on 9/13/18 at 2:21 pm to MStant1
quote:FWIW, I really didn't have a Hassett slide in mind in making the inflection comment. I was more referring to some of the things I noted earlier . . . the post-election market surge, end of corporate waterboarding, consumer and business confidence, etc.
I watched Kevin Hassett's press conference too, but I wasn't sold on the "inflection" he spoke about.
This post was edited on 9/13/18 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 9/13/18 at 5:27 pm to NC_Tigah
Gotcha - poor assumption on my part due to the word "inflection" and some other threads you had started a couple days ago. 
Posted on 11/21/18 at 8:27 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
substantiate that, lazy arse
you mean restate what's plainly evident in the articles? stupid quote:read. the. freaking. articles. nerd
where is the evidence
quote:oh yeah? how so?
i said they fail to support your argument
quote:
i won't let you off the hook
i am the one reminding you that you won't even do a simple thing such as quote the articles and show how they're wrong. in case you haven't caught on to this, most people on this board aren't fooled by your bullcrap quote:when did i do this? link?
like the one where you respond to a claim about real wages with articles about nominal wages. or assert a "dynamic turnaround" that the data do not show
Posted on 11/21/18 at 8:30 pm to KeyserSoze999
No
They are retarded, misinformed, mindless sheep, and loved by the left because of it.
They are retarded, misinformed, mindless sheep, and loved by the left because of it.
Posted on 11/21/18 at 8:58 pm to ohiovol
quote:
It was when Obama inherited it.
All liberals, understand this one simple fact.
The greatest thing Trump has done, is REMOVE OBAMA's SANCTIONS.
That is it. That is all that was needed to improve our economy.
Undo, Obama's shite. Please explain how Obama gets credit for Trump erasing his mistakes?
Posted on 11/22/18 at 12:46 am to Balloon Huffer
quote:
The greatest thing Trump has done, is REMOVE OBAMA's SANCTIONS.
Huh? Economic sanctions have been just as active under Trump if not more so (see Russian, Venezuelan, and Iranian sanctions). Also not sure how this has anything to do with the economy. Perhaps I’m missing your point.
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