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re: U.S. businesses sue to block Trump tariffs, say trade deficits are not an emergency
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:37 pm to Jjdoc
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:37 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Does not have a damn thing to do with it. Your ignorance keeps showing.
The early US economy was much more dramatically boom-bust cycle than anything since the Great Depression. Tariffs made the speculative interest in US investment from around the world very fickle. We'd usually have 20 year cycles of major busts proceeding a European investment pullback then a decade long slow recovery due to specie-backed money making it harder to reinvigorate the economy without the external investment.
I am not saying PRINT BABY PRINT quantitative easing possible with fiat currency is wonderful but the US economic system before the Great Depression was a rickety machine rife with problems too.
Edit: I think the sole reason the US survived the 19th century - and it nearly didn't in the 1860s - was "free real estate." The purchases and claims followed by the settlement of the continent were the escape valve for the pressure that all these economic downturns would've caused in an America that went the Whiggish path of development of existing states and territories with limited expansion.
This post was edited on 4/14/25 at 9:43 pm
1
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:56 pm to Diego Ricardo
quote:
I think the sole reason the US survived the 19th century - and it nearly didn't in the 1860s - was "free real estate." The purchases and claims followed by the settlement of the continent were the escape valve for the pressure that all these economic downturns would've caused in an America that went the Whiggish path of development of existing states and territories with limited expansion.
The only reason the US (and ROW) survived the last century of fiat, fractional reserve money, keynesian madness was plentiful, cheap, oil and natural gas. We could spend a barrel of oil to get 100 more out of the ground and that covered the sins of an unprecedented era of waste and mismanagement bordering on malfeasance. That era of cheap, dense, portable energy is gone, and if we don't find a replacement very soon our long abused fiat money is about to revert to its intrinsic value which, now that it's no longer physical currency, is zero. The rickety hard money system of the 19th century will look stable and calm compared to what comes next.
This post was edited on 4/14/25 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 4/15/25 at 12:07 am to Jjdoc
The businesses that brought the suit.
Fishusa.com - Ironic that they use usa in the company name.
vosselections.com - importer of wine founded by Victor Owen Schwartz, joined by his daughter, Chloë Syrah Schwartz. Chloe looks like she has a fish hook in her eyebrow, must have ordered from Fishusa.
Genovapipe.com. - Based out of SLC, Utah.
terrycycling.com - Burlington, VT, founded by Georgena Terry but no longer owns. Dude looks like a lady.
microkits.net - Owner pictured below, enough said.
Fishusa.com - Ironic that they use usa in the company name.
vosselections.com - importer of wine founded by Victor Owen Schwartz, joined by his daughter, Chloë Syrah Schwartz. Chloe looks like she has a fish hook in her eyebrow, must have ordered from Fishusa.
Genovapipe.com. - Based out of SLC, Utah.
terrycycling.com - Burlington, VT, founded by Georgena Terry but no longer owns. Dude looks like a lady.
microkits.net - Owner pictured below, enough said.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 12:19 am to Jjdoc
How about stop doing business with our enemy. Chy-na
Posted on 4/15/25 at 6:41 am to wdhalgren
quote:
The only reason the US (and ROW) survived the last century of fiat, fractional reserve money, keynesian madness was plentiful, cheap, oil and natural gas. We could spend a barrel of oil to get 100 more out of the ground and that covered the sins of an unprecedented era of waste and mismanagement bordering on malfeasance. That era of cheap, dense, portable energy is gone, and if we don't find a replacement very soon our long abused fiat money is about to revert to its intrinsic value which, now that it's no longer physical currency, is zero. The rickety hard money system of the 19th century will look stable and calm compared to what comes next.
I think either way it is a bad situation because the fundamentals for how we diffuse social unrest is basically just culture. The early United States being able to take the unsuccessful or otherwise discontent and send them westward before a dense, discontent population could become a powder keg in the settled lands was a big factor in why people stayed bought into the system. Many people cannot even afford to buy a home on an acre or less anymore. The early United States was basically handing people acreages as a homestead to improve and capitalize upon.
Specie currency means almost everyone's life will get worse and economic recoveries from downturns will take longer to return to status quo. What does the United States have in its tool belt today that can function as a pressure escape valve like free real estate? Nothing, so I guess we'll just have to double down on police state and keep everything under control with authoritarianism.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 6:45 am to mwade91383
quote:
This will get appealed to the Supreme Court and will be another Trump loss. Blatantly unconstitutional.
Isn't Trump's record at the USSC pretty good so far? What are you talking about?
Posted on 4/15/25 at 6:50 am to Tchefuncte Tiger
quote:
Isn't Trump's record at the USSC pretty good so far? What are you talking about?
People get mad because SCOTUS is not just rubberstamping everything along partisan lines but they seem to be giving Trump the stuff that has logical precedence and kicking back the things that came from "crazy-pants-lets-see-how-far-we-can-push-it" thoughts in Trump's braintrust.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 6:57 am to Bass Tiger
quote:
Most businesses who have become dependent upon cheap CCP manufacturing would side with the CCP over Trump/MAGA. The current rift has been reduced to America First vs Globalism
America First vs Marxist.... same difference! Lol
Posted on 4/15/25 at 8:45 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
Specie currency means almost everyone's life will get worse and economic recoveries from downturns will take longer to return to status quo. What does the United States have in its tool belt today that can function as a pressure escape valve like free real estate? Nothing, so I guess we'll just have to double down on police state and keep everything under control with authoritarianism.
Hard money has several major advantages over fiat, number one being that politicians can't levy a tax via inflation. They have to collect those taxes directly from the public and that's a limit on the size and power of government. The Congress and the executive have to go on record for raising taxes. They can't tax savings without a vote.
Number two, hard money incentivizes savings, which is the foundation of personal responsibility. Savings (not speculation) is the main mechanism of social mobility for the lower and middle classes. Fiat money in our system disincentivizes savings and thus personal responsibility, because the value of savings is constantly being diluted and destroyed. We've even invented faulty narratives to convince the peons that saving is bad for America, like the "paradox of thrift". If you truly want people to work hard and be responsible citizens, you start with incentives to work hard, consume less, save more.
Number three, economic downturns are a critical part of capitalism. It's been well documented that during good times people, companies, goverments overborrow and overspend. Under hard money systems that is a self-limited process because when the money runs out, the party's over. It causes economic cycles, but it also builds financial discipline over time. Using monetary manipulation to short circuit those downturns, make them quicker and less painful, subverts the discipline and eventually leads to non-stop financial excess, which is where we are now. The end result is much more destructive than an economic cycle. The concept of a life of financial discipline and saving may seem like "everyone's life will get worse", obviously unacceptable to our modern sensibilities, but it's actually integral to any sustainable economic model.
This post was edited on 4/15/25 at 8:49 am
Posted on 4/15/25 at 11:42 am to wdhalgren
quote:
Hard money has several major advantages over fiat, number one being that politicians can't levy a tax via inflation. They have to collect those taxes directly from the public and that's a limit on the size and power of government. The Congress and the executive have to go on record for raising taxes. They can't tax savings without a vote. Number two, hard money incentivizes savings, which is the foundation of personal responsibility. Savings (not speculation) is the main mechanism of social mobility for the lower and middle classes. Fiat money in our system disincentivizes savings and thus personal responsibility, because the value of savings is constantly being diluted and destroyed. We've even invented faulty narratives to convince the peons that saving is bad for America, like the "paradox of thrift". If you truly want people to work hard and be responsible citizens, you start with incentives to work hard, consume less, save more. Number three, economic downturns are a critical part of capitalism. It's been well documented that during good times people, companies, goverments overborrow and overspend. Under hard money systems that is a self-limited process because when the money runs out, the party's over. It causes economic cycles, but it also builds financial discipline over time. Using monetary manipulation to short circuit those downturns, make them quicker and less painful, subverts the discipline and eventually leads to non-stop financial excess, which is where we are now. The end result is much more destructive than an economic cycle. The concept of a life of financial discipline and saving may seem like "everyone's life will get worse", obviously unacceptable to our modern sensibilities, but it's actually integral to any sustainable economic model.
You raise many good points that I want to chew on but I think I’m coming at it differently:
Fiat currencies will make downturns more profound because there is no liquidity lever for the government to pull to encourage economic activity. It is an interesting angle to argue that is an essential feature of capitalism and not really going to argue against it. I need to think on that one.
My concern is that the US had unique circumstances in the first 100ish years of existence that made the social upheaval in the downturns more easy to diffuse. We simply do not have a frontier to send the discontent and outcasts to anymore. My read is that a return to a 19th century economic order without a 19th century frontier just means social upheaval that will either tear the country apart or lead to an oppressive police state.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 12:15 pm to 14&Counting
quote:
Trump's messaging on tariffs isn't good. He Neds to get some skins on the wall regarding a trade deal and quickly.
Why does he need to put skins on the wall though?
I disagree with you. I don’t think any people owning and or running large corporations really wanted him. They all went Harris. They just want the status quo.
The regular man is who voted for trump. I think this can play out. At least for 8-10 months. Immigration is the more visible item to his voters. And I’m down with the deportation of all the illegal people voting.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 12:16 pm to extremetigerfanatic
quote:
I disagree with you. I don’t think any people owning and or running large corporations really wanted him. They all went Harris. They just want the status quo.
The regular man is who voted for trump.
Yet the tariffs benefit large corporations and harm small business.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 12:18 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
You're supporting central planning and calling others "leftist,"
Tariffs were the main source of revenue for the US government for half of its existence and from the founding at that.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 12:21 pm to AaronDeTiger
quote:
Tariffs were the main source of revenue for the US government
Long ago when we were tied to the gold standard.
The earliest tariffs also only included finished products, which allowed smaller industry to import components, add value and sell at a profit.
Putting tariffs on components is a huge blow to the small businessman.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 2:53 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Yet the tariffs benefit large corporations and harm small business.
You sure? I have the same amount of money to spend today as I did last year. Is there going to be a big difference in my costs this year? Maybe. Maybe I buy US.
You and others point to cheap goods. I think that’s a red herring. People are willing to pay more to buy American. People that voted Trump aren’t scared that the next pair of jordans will be $500. They are worried their grandchildren won’t have jobs and will have a bankrupt country. That’s what trump sold people on. The idea of America First. Jobs. Manufacturing. Removing waste. Getting rid of the illegals siphoning our tax dollars.
What we have been doing is what only benefits rich people. The Dow increased by 280% since 2008. The national debt went up 267%. But GDP only went up 110%. Wages did even worse.
None of this recent increase is real. It’s a big Ponzi scheme.
I don’t know if Trump moves the needle. We might be too far gone. But I’m willing to let him cook. Even if I pay more for a little while. (I don’t think it will be bad) And if that pisses off other countries so be it. I don’t care.
Bitching about tariffs is so weird. If they are so bad, why does every single country in the world use them? Apparently tariffs on American liquor are fricking killing crown royal somehow.
This post was edited on 4/15/25 at 2:56 pm
Posted on 4/15/25 at 2:54 pm to Diego Ricardo
quote:
It is an interesting angle to argue that is an essential feature of capitalism and not really going to argue against it. I need to think on that one.
I can't take credit for that idea. What I did was adapt and paraphrase the concept of "creative destruction" to fit this discussion. Austrian school economists have talked about if for over a century and many books and papers have been written on the subject.
If you're interested in an empirical approach, James Grant wrote a book called "The Trouble With Prosperity" (1996) that deals with the history of financial (mainly debt) markets and how they display what Allen Greenspan contemporaneously referred to as "irrational exuberance". Grant's not strictly writing about the Austrian school perspective, but that's the overall slant of his ideas and conclusions. He's a very good writer and researcher on this topic. Here's an interview he gave about the book.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 2:59 pm to wdhalgren
This economic idea stuff really needs a separate thread and not clogging up a Trump tariff argument.
And I mean that positively. I’d like to read a back and forth on it. It’s just buried where it shouldn’t be.
And I mean that positively. I’d like to read a back and forth on it. It’s just buried where it shouldn’t be.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 5:16 pm to extremetigerfanatic
quote:
. If they are so bad, why does every single country in the world use them?
Compare their disposable income to ours.
Maybe theyre doing something wrong
Posted on 4/15/25 at 5:23 pm to extremetigerfanatic
Wouldn't that be great. Too bad we have people like Roger that will not allow it.
Posted on 4/15/25 at 5:24 pm to RogerTheShrubber
There is a time limit on how long Trump can push the issue. I think the quicker her makes some deals, with Canada and Mex and old rotten Europe the faster he can turn to China who is really at war with the US right now, has been for some time.
The idea that we can keep being the worlds bank while we go deeper into debt is crazy. We can't afford to prop up the World and when we do get so deep we can't even pay the juice on our debt don't expect our "allies" to come running to help us. There will be no Marshal plan for bankrupt USA.
Cut spending, get better trade deals and cut regulations.
The idea that we can keep being the worlds bank while we go deeper into debt is crazy. We can't afford to prop up the World and when we do get so deep we can't even pay the juice on our debt don't expect our "allies" to come running to help us. There will be no Marshal plan for bankrupt USA.
Cut spending, get better trade deals and cut regulations.
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