re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Do ya'll think this is a fair summary of the present situation:

Daily death toll (not rate) has plummeted almost 80% - despite the big pick up in confirmed cases and rate of positives per test. This would seem to imply one or more of several things:

--the vulnerable are successfully self-isolating

--less vulnerable populations don't seem to have much overall risk of severity

--we are getting better at treatment

--as infections have picked up in non-NYC geographies, viral load per infection is much lower - meaning severity of impact is much lower

--current serological extrapolations imply about 8X wider infection than the confirmed numbers indicate. This puts the death rate around 80bps...essentially, the big remaining question is where in the range of 20bps - 80bps we will ultimately wind up

--there are a couple of alarming outliers - Houston and Yakima both appear to have maxed out their ICU beds


To me - it seems like good/great news almost all the way around. At the very least, cause for cautious optimism...right?

42K new cases today, easily the highest number of new cases we've seen since the outbreak began. Today was up 3K over yesteray, 14.4K over last week (a 52% increase) and 8.9K above the 7 day rolling average.

Testing was 640K!!! today which is the highest testing volume we've seen to date. Even with such a high volume of tests, the positivity rate was 6.5%, 1.2% over last week and .4% above the average. With this volume of testing, you would hope the positivity rate would be down, it wasn't.

Deaths @ 652 today which is 70 below yesterday, 41 below last week, but 91 (16%) above the 7 day average. The decline in deaths continues to flatten out.

Mortality is down to 4.82% and falling.

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Testing was 640K!!! today which is the highest testing volume we've seen to date. Even with such a high volume of tests, the positivity rate was 6.5%, 1.2% over last week and .4% above the average. With this volume of testing, you would hope the positivity rate would be down, it wasn't.

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Eh. If healthy folks are getting back to their lives, this is right in line with what we'd expect. Got to keep our eyes on this:

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Deaths @ 652 today which is 70 below yesterday, 41 below last week, but 91 (16%) above the 7 day average.

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but 91 (16%) above the 7 day average.

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But Thursday is typically one of the highest death report days, so how much does this actually mean?

So since the CDC director is saying that cases of coronavirus are likely 10 fold to what is reported, wouldn’t that make the death rate more like .482% instead of 4.82%? This is going to wind up being .1% or less when it’s all said and done, based on that revelation.

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Can anyone tell me what event took place in Houston 2+ weeks ago

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Small businesses dared to open their doors again.

I feel bad for those peaceful protestors. The draft from those open small businesses infected them all. /s

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So since the CDC director is saying that cases of coronavirus are likely 10 fold to what is reported, wouldn’t that make the death rate more like .482% instead of 4.82%? This is going to wind up being .1% or less when it’s all said and done, based on that revelation.

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It sounds low, but assuming that's right, that's about 5x as lethal as flu and to get to herd immunity at that fatality rate, we could end up with over 1 million deaths. (0.00482 x 0.7 x 330M Americans) where that 0.7 is the roughly 70% of population threshold to get to herd immunity. We've got to control the spread and lower the fatality rate.

Leftists are such pussies and tools.

Sell the lies, trash.

Get out of this thread with your trash opinions and trash personality.