re: Trafalgar has Biden +2 in PA

My map

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Everyone voting against Trump showed up to vote for Hillary last time. How did that work out Mickey?

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I have several friends who did not vote for Hillary but will vote against Trump in the coming election. I didn't vote for Hillary either.

We didn't think Trump could win. Turns out elections have consequences.

My guy didn't make it very far in the primary. Ranked choice he would have smoked Trump but we are stuck with a moronic system.

(no message)

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What is the general message? Not trolling. Just want to see what you get from Joe that Trump doesn't provide with messaging

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"If we can decide not to cooperate, we can decide to cooperate as well. That’s the choice I’ll make as president. But there’s something bigger going on in this nation than just our broken politics. Something darker, something more dangerous. I’m not talking about ordinary differences of opinion, competing viewpoints give life and vibrancy to our democracy. No, I’m talking about something different, something deeper. Too many Americans seek not to overcome our divisions, but to deepen them, we must seek not to build walls, but bridges. We must seek not to have our fist clenched, but our arms open. We have to seek not to tear each other apart, we seek to come together. You don’t have to agree with me on everything, or even on most things, to see that we’re experiencing today is neither good nor normal."

So Trafalagar's track record is a bit inconsistent (pretty good in 2016; apparently pretty poor since). Nearly half of their polls end up outside the expected margin of error, despite 75% of their polls correctly choosing the winner. Of the 453 pollsters in 538's database, on average, they correctly call 77% (80.4% of all polls) of the races and only 34% (28.9% of all polls) fall outside the MOE. The top 100 correctly call 84% of races and only 19% fall outside the MOE on average, and the it's 83% and 22% for the top half.

In other words, Traflagar is worse than average at correctly predicting the winner, but considerably worse than average at keeping the margin inside the MOE.

Now one of the specific sampling criticisms I've seen recently is that while demographically their samples appear to reflect the population and electorate, but their sampling within various districts are quite discrepant. For example, a district that Trump won heavily in 2016 may represent a significantly higher percentage of its polling sample than its turnout in 2016, while the reverse is true for districts Hillary won heavily.

So to test this, I took the results of the 2016 election, and calculated the MOV using the margins from 2016 weighted by district proportion in this sample and compared it to 2016. What I found is that if turnout reflected this poll in 2016, Trump's MOV would have been about 1.95 points higher than in 2016.

So this poll reflects a 3 point shift from the 2016 election (Trump +0.7% in 2016 to Trump -2.3% in this poll), but with that 1.9% congressional district turnout difference, that reflects a 4.2% shift. In other words, this represent a 2.3% advantage with a nearly 1.9% favorable turnout shift towards Trump districts.

Furthemore, if you look at their demographic turnout (race and age) compared to 2016, these also represent a turnout shift for both that is favorable towards Trump. So my guess is that when you combine the congressional district and demographic turnout, the turnout shift towards Trump is even more favorable (3-5 percent), and he's still trailing his 2016 margin by 3%.

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We have to seek not to tear each other apart, we seek to come together. You don’t have to agree with me on everything, or even on most things, to see that we’re experiencing today is neither good nor normal.

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And who is the US experiencing that hate and tearing apart from? The right or the left?

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More walls of text. See you on 11/4/20.

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It was a really good post.

Look.
Biden is trying to pull the Obama style message. Unity. Come together. Sounds great. It sounded great when Obama said it. It's all BS though. Dont fall for it.

The reality is Biden and Harris support BLM. A divisive group. They support antifa. A divisive group. They support Critical Race Theory. A divisive ideology. The nation will never ever ever ever come together under Critical Race Theory premises. No matter how much Chris Wallace and others try to sugar coat it. That mindset will destroy the country.

Democrats literally want to rewrite history. They literally want to tear down statues. They literally want to abolish the supreme court parameters and the electoral college and add 2 liberal voting states and lower the voting age to 16.

United States could be unrecognizable in 2 years if the Democrats sweep the house senate and presidency.

The media has done this. And so many citizens have fallen for it hard.

I dont think Trumps message is divisive. 4th of July example. Great speech at Mount Rushmore. Gets shite on by the media the next day. So dishonest it makes me sick.

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The reality is Biden and Harris support BLM. A divisive group. They support antifa. A divisive group. They support Critical Race Theory. A divisive ideology.

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Correct, and his mindset astonishes me. Trump gets elected, 1/3 of the country throws a 4 year temper tantrum and the answer is to vote for the people throwing the tantrum. Apparently they're saying "Trump is making us do this" and he's buying it.

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I dont think Trumps message is divisive.

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It's not, and even when he's in rage mode it's directed at politicians, not voters. I don't think I've ever heard him go after voters like Obama or Hillary did. But they weren't divisive?