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re: There’s no way we have as many deaths as being reported
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:39 am to DyeHardDylan
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:39 am to DyeHardDylan
quote:I thought that too with that and pneumonia deaths.
Basically no one is dying of heart attacks or strokes anymore.
Turns out it's just a lag in reporting.
LINK
2
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:41 am to shel311
We didn’t have accurate data for the entire country for March on April 7th?
Are you sure?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:43 am to shel311
All opinions as for the cause of this decline are just speculation at this time.
At the end of the year, when all data is compiled, then we will have an idea of how skewed the numbers actually are.
It will also be telling in regards to total US deaths this year.
If there isn’t a significant increase of deaths over the expected norm, the deaths labeled “covid” would be hiding expected deaths due to other pathology.
At the end of the year, when all data is compiled, then we will have an idea of how skewed the numbers actually are.
It will also be telling in regards to total US deaths this year.
If there isn’t a significant increase of deaths over the expected norm, the deaths labeled “covid” would be hiding expected deaths due to other pathology.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:48 am to Scruffy
quote:
If there isn’t a significant increase of deaths over the expected norm, the deaths labeled “covid” would be hiding expected deaths due to other pathology.
Which would explain why the people dying are more or less within the typical life expectancy of the region, in some cases above the average life expectancy might be possible.
So.. old sick people are dying right on time. <-----
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 11:52 am
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:10 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:
Which would explain why the people dying are more or less within the typical life expectancy of the region, in some cases above the average life expectancy might be possible.
So.. old sick people are dying right on time. <-----
I've seen this a few times on here, but you should know that it's kind of misleading to think that average life expectancy of 80 means you expect people to die at age 80. Because it's an average that takes deaths at all ages into consideration, by the time someone survives all the way to age 79, they are not expected to die at age 80 anymore.
As an example, this site shows that a man aged 75 in the US would be expected to live another 11 years on average, despite the fact that the overall average life expectancy for that chart is 76, and was certainly much lower when the man was first born.
LINK
So if a 75 yo man dies from covid19, that is still likely taking quite a few years of expected living away from him.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:18 pm to frogglet
Don't try to present facts to him. He still believes the virus may not even exist at all.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:45 pm to Antonio Moss
It's like that thread on the OT with the guys grandparents dying due to Covid19. But yet a few posts down he notes his grandfather has copd and needs a fricking machine to keep him from dying in his sleep way before this was a thing.
It sucks, but some of these old people could have literally died of anything.
It sucks, but some of these old people could have literally died of anything.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:46 pm to frogglet
quote:
I've seen this a few times on here, but you should know that it's kind of misleading to think that average life expectancy of 80 means you expect people to die at age 80. Because it's an average that takes deaths at all ages into consideration, by the time someone survives all the way to age 79, they are not expected to die at age 80 anymore. As an example, this site shows that a man aged 75 in the US would be expected to live another 11 years on average, despite the fact that the overall average life expectancy for that chart is 76, and was certainly much lower when the man was first born. LINK So if a 75 yo man dies from covid19, that is still likely taking quite a few years of expected living away from him.
Now figure in the pre-existing conditions, these people are probably on the low end of the curve with one or more pre-existing condition (either self-created or genetics). Worldwide the number is over 99% with one or more... they're the sick and old.
I don't have enough data on Spain, but there it actually looks like its possible that the average age of death from the beer disease is higher than the life expectancy age. Germany looks very similar... meaning people that die are older than the life expectancy.
I'm expecting many of these regions to actually increase in life expectancy this year. If one makes it 75-90 with some of these pre-existing conditions - nothing really out of the ordinary to me.
quote:
Don't try to present facts to him. He still believes the virus may not even exist at all.
Technically, not sure he actually produced a fact, a theory maybe.
quote:
So if a 75 yo man dies from covid19, that is still likely taking quite a few years of expected living away from him.
Technically you don't know if he would be still alive either way, at best its possibly shaving off a few hours, days or weeks. How is anyone going to measure that?
If you're diabetic and keep buying chips/cookies and you make it 80, I would thank your lucky stars.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 4/11/20 at 7:00 am to SammyTiger
NY Times, Washington Post, DailyMail all have articles about this if you would like to do a online search. But I know you have a friend of a friend that is a nurse at a hospital.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 7:36 am to Scruffy
quote:
All opinions as for the cause of this decline are just speculation at this time.
Could not agree more.
However at the end we will not have an accurate number for number of cases,that is significant in calculating mortality.
The numerator, number of deaths, is naturally more attainable. I am unsure how accurate that number will be. Regardless it will be interesting to review when the dust settles.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 7:54 am to IslandBuckeye
quote:
Could not agree more. However at the end we will not have an accurate number for number of cases,that is significant in calculating mortality. The numerator, number of deaths, is naturally more attainable. I am unsure how accurate that number will be. Regardless it will be interesting to review when the dust settles.
The policies that were setup in March did nothing and possibly hurt, see Sweden.
We've had numbers since February, at least good enough data to where even I could see that the elderly sick needed protection... which they didn't do. Instead the nutjobs decided to shut down the world over the freaking flu.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 8:07 am to DyeHardDylan
quote:
Basically no one is dying of heart attacks or strokes anymore
Citation needed.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 10:37 am to Antonio Moss
Ohhh right....all the deaths related to covid19 at home (which there is, not denying that)....but which we all know will have confirmed test results to ensure it was in fact due to the virus....I mean it’s not like the government sent out any notification or guidelines on how to document death and instructing medical personnel that COD can be assumed covid19 without any medical proof.
Oh and we all know most people who have family members who have passed during this terrible time are just not reporting it, likely just letting the corpses just chill out in the freezer until this is all said and done, will be thousands unaccounted for and reason why our models are not accurate as well.
Oh and we all know most people who have family members who have passed during this terrible time are just not reporting it, likely just letting the corpses just chill out in the freezer until this is all said and done, will be thousands unaccounted for and reason why our models are not accurate as well.
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