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re: The US trade deficit PLUMMETS 16% in one month, from May to June.

Posted on 8/5/25 at 9:57 am to
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
5001 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 9:57 am to
Trade surpluses are not always a bad thing.

West African shitholes for instance, they are too poor to buy any of our goods, and we buy their chocolate. Same thing with produce makers in LATAM.

Where trade deficits are a sign of bad, is when its countries like Japan, South Korea, EU nations. They put unfair regulations on our exports, tax the shite out of them, and generally make it where US products are just not competitive. They then subsidize their local producers to be competitive in our market, where for the longest time we did not have any protectionist policies in place. That is not good for the American people.
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
5001 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:00 am to
quote:

Apparently you don't know the difference between GDP and the trade deficit.


You were insinuating the US economy was suffering, it is not
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133551 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:05 am to
quote:

You were insinuating the US economy was suffering,
No, I wasn't. Not even close. Your reading comprehension is impaired.

I was making fun of posters who ignore the simple economic principle that cost increases affect demand.

As President W. Bush once said, "This ain't rocket surgery."
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6372 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:06 am to
quote:

The depression being caused by tariffs is fake news


That is 100% truth. It did not cause it.


quote:

It was caused by the Federal Reserve not providing sufficient liquidity in the banking system.


This is 100% correct too.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
465759 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:15 am to
quote:

SFP just popped 4 Advils

Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:16 am to
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
295713 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:17 am to
quote:


Trade surpluses are not always a bad thing.


Its natural if youre a wealthy nation.

We will always have trade imbalances as long as we are the top dog economically.
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
56882 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:25 am to
quote:

We can't trust the employment numbers but we can trust the trade numbers.....got it!


Well, you could use your intellect and ask yourself, what policies are contributing to each? Now, that requires a little thought and not just accepting whatever is fed to you.

Explain, if the employment numbers are what they are, then what policy has Trump implemented that would hurt private employment numbers? If the employment numbers are bad, then how did wage $ grow and number of hours worked also grow in that same period (true indicators of economy health)? Something doesn't add up. Or, maybe it's the loss of federal jobs that are feeding the revised numbers, and private sector job growth is on the rise? You tell me what makes sense and what doesn't.

BLS - private sector job growth up, federal jobs down

quote:

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or
0.3 percent, to $36.44 in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have
increased by 3.9 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and
nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.34. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)


quote:

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3
hours in July. In manufacturing, the average workweek held at 40.1 hours, and overtime edged
down to 2.8 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private
nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours in July. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)


Now ask those same questions on trade. What policies that Trump has implemented could cause our trade deficit to plummet? The answer is blatantly obvious and one too inconvenient for you to accept because it destroys the narrative you pushed for so long.
Posted by AquaAg84
Member since May 2013
3368 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:29 am to
From the top rope.
Posted by OU Guy
Member since Feb 2022
24416 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:43 am to
quote:

So the following are ALL down:

Imports are down
Exports are down
Manufacturing is down
Service sector is down

Tell me why this should be celebrated?


LOL

Exports:
May: $278B
Jun: $277.3B (drop of $700M)

Imports:
May: $350.3B
Jun: $337.5B (drop of $12.8B)

So exports barely dropped 0.25% and imports dropped 3.65% and you think thats bad. Thats winning.

The economy expanded by 3.0% on 2nd qtr after contracting by 0.5% in 1st qtr.

Trade gap with Chyna dropped by a 3rd to $9.5B in Jun, lowest since Feb 2004 (21 years). Over 5 months it has narrowed by $22.2B - a 70% reduction.

Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
5001 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:51 am to
quote:

Its natural if youre a wealthy nation.

We will always have trade imbalances as long as we are the top dog economically.


The problem with this is your second statement. Its natural in some instances. We should not have huge deficits with nations that are roughly as wealthy. Countries that run massive trade deficits will not remain the top dog economically in the long haul. A country that produces nothing has a very low economic floor. In the event of war, pandemic, or foreign collusion (i.e. BRICS), being entirely reliant on services is dangerous

In theory, yes it is a good thing foreigners subsidize steel, pharma and other goods, we pay less than it should cost. In practice it means the US is hollowed out in the jobs available for lower to middle class. The import model economy is great for the top 10%, not so great for everyone else. Cheaper goods dont mean much if you dont make much money

It also means foreigners can pull the lever at any time, and the US faces intense shortage without the domestic means to cover the gap. In 1973, the US experienced this with oil
This post was edited on 8/5/25 at 10:52 am
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
295713 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:54 am to
quote:

y. Countries that run massive trade deficits will not remain the top dog economically in the long haul.


We've done just that.

In fact, when it comes to manufacturing we are number two globally and the highest ranked per capita.

We offshore what is inefficient to produce here.
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
5001 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 11:05 am to
quote:

In fact, when it comes to manufacturing we are number two globally and the highest ranked per capita.

We offshore what is inefficient to produce here.


Wrong way to look at it. What we manufacture here is very high value goods. Military, cars, heavy machinery. All of which rely on importing parts from foreign countries, so again in the event of something happening we are not able to produce domestically.

The benefits from "inefficient" to produce here, like consumer goods, impacts a small percentage of the population:

quote:

The top 10% of earners—households making about $250,000 a year or more—are splurging on everything from vacations to designer handbags, buoyed by big gains in stocks, real estate and other assets.
Those consumers now account for 49.7% of all spending, a record in data going back to 1989, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics. Three decades ago, they accounted for about 36%.


LINK




This is how you end up with pitchfork mobs
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
295713 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 11:07 am to
quote:



Wrong way to look at it.


Absolutely not. Its a huge leap in acheivement.

Our mfg supports semi skilled labor which pays better, and produces higher value products.

Youre not saving people who have no skills or education regardless of how hard you try. We arnt going to fill those jobs with white or black native americans.

This post was edited on 8/5/25 at 11:08 am
Posted by Cobbvol
Member since Jun 2020
246 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 11:14 am to
quote:

A trade deficit or surplus on its own isn't a predictor of much.


An annual trade deficit for each year for the past 50 years is however.
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
5001 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 11:16 am to
quote:

saving people who have no skills or education


We are going to have pitchfork mobs at some point. Having a massive chunk of the population have no viable occupation = huge welfare net + crime. It also bleeds into other issues like birth rate. The US birth rate is a horse shoe based on income, where the poorest and wealthiest have by far the most kids

Id rather pay a couple hundred bucks extra for my next big screen so someone works a "inefficient" factory job than pay it in welfare
Posted by Yakker
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2025
178 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 11:17 am to
But Fox News said…..
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
295713 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 11:17 am to
quote:



We are going to have pitchfork mobs at some point.


Nah, Fentanyl is doing its job on them.

the last thing I worry about is pitchfork mobs. I'm armed to the teeth
Posted by Yakker
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2025
178 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 11:18 am to
quote:

Id rather pay a couple hundred bucks extra for my next big screen so someone works a "inefficient" factory job than pay it in welfare
No one is stopping you from buying American.

It’s nice to be able to choose. It’s called freedom.
This post was edited on 8/5/25 at 11:19 am
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
18516 posts
Posted on 8/5/25 at 11:19 am to
quote:

Which one is true in your opinion? Both? Neither?

How in the frick would I know? Please tell me how you know what is true and what is not?
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