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re: Talarico now up to 62% odds in Polymarket
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:47 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:47 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
He's a LOT better than a DEM, especially one like Talrico
Love all you staunch conservatives who love career politicians, it totally helps your “conservative” arguments on here.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:50 am to Gifman
quote:
Pretty good time to lay some money on Paxton
If I gambled, I would agree. We have seen this story with Beto.
Starting to think prediction markets, like pollsters, ignore rural counties. Rural counties will not vote for Talarico, outside of the border counties. The only blue will be large cities and that has always been this way in Texas.
Again, we have seen it before. Red map, blue turds littering it.
https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/senate/
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:50 am to GreatLakesTiger24
He’s a crook.
He has ripped off his own friends in the past. In July and August 2015, a Collin County grand jury indicted Paxton on two first-degree felony counts of securities fraud and one third-degree count of failing to register as an investment advisor. He was accused of soliciting investors for a technology company named Servergy Inc. without disclosing that he was receiving a commission.
He doesn’t think of other Texans, only self interest.
He is a grifter. Somehow really good using his office at self enrichment.
He is a philanderer. Divorced on biblical grounds.
Just no morals at all, in any examples.
He is a slave to big money donors to the point where he has released sexual predators from jail for the right price and connections.
His own staff hated him enough to become whistleblowers. In late 2020, eight of Paxton’s top senior deputies mutinied and reported him to the FBI. They alleged that Paxton was abusing his office, taking bribes, and obstructing justice to benefit Nate Paul, a wealthy Austin real estate developer and political donor who was facing separate financial investigations.
Prompted by the whistleblower allegations and a proposed multi-million dollar settlement funded by taxpayers, the Republican-led Texas House voted overwhelmingly to impeach Paxton on 20 articles in May 2023. The charges focused on bribery, unfitness for office, and an alleged extramarital affair. He was suspended from office pending trial.
He has ripped off his own friends in the past. In July and August 2015, a Collin County grand jury indicted Paxton on two first-degree felony counts of securities fraud and one third-degree count of failing to register as an investment advisor. He was accused of soliciting investors for a technology company named Servergy Inc. without disclosing that he was receiving a commission.
He doesn’t think of other Texans, only self interest.
He is a grifter. Somehow really good using his office at self enrichment.
He is a philanderer. Divorced on biblical grounds.
Just no morals at all, in any examples.
He is a slave to big money donors to the point where he has released sexual predators from jail for the right price and connections.
His own staff hated him enough to become whistleblowers. In late 2020, eight of Paxton’s top senior deputies mutinied and reported him to the FBI. They alleged that Paxton was abusing his office, taking bribes, and obstructing justice to benefit Nate Paul, a wealthy Austin real estate developer and political donor who was facing separate financial investigations.
Prompted by the whistleblower allegations and a proposed multi-million dollar settlement funded by taxpayers, the Republican-led Texas House voted overwhelmingly to impeach Paxton on 20 articles in May 2023. The charges focused on bribery, unfitness for office, and an alleged extramarital affair. He was suspended from office pending trial.
This post was edited on 10/2/26 at 8:57 am
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:51 am to Lou Pai
Can anyone tell us the predictive value of betting markets a month from an election with regards to the actual outcome? Seems like these things have been plenty wrong in the past
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:52 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
And they had a guaranteed win in Cornyn right there
Is that really a win
Muh establishnent we want them out
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:53 am to Lou Pai
It's a betting site... They go with money laid down... Doesn't mean shite...
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:54 am to SlowFlowPro
Cornyn is NOT a win. He needed replacement.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:56 am to BoomerandSooner
quote:
Starting to think prediction markets, like pollsters, ignore rural counties. Rural counties will not vote for Talarico, outside of the border counties. The only blue will be large cities and that has always been this way in Texas.
Again, we have seen it before. Red map, blue turds littering it.
LINK
I think Paxton wins in the end. However, you can't compare this to 2018 Cruz vs. Beto. Yes...the lamestream media kept stumping for Beto and anointing him as the one to "turn Texas blue"; however, no legit poll had Beto leading None.
But some of those same polls that had Cruz winning all through the 2018 are showing Talarico supposedly leading.
Now all that, yes, polling can be skewed, and again, I think Paxton still comes out on top.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:56 am to GreatLakesTiger24
quote:
Can I ask a question? Why is Paxton so disliked? What is this baggage?
There are multiple reasons. Just take a look at his bio.
One example: his wife of 40 years filed for divorce while he was actively running for the Senate. The grounds: infidelity.
In 2018 he admitted to an affair and said he was recommitting himself to his marriage. He lied.
No big deal, you say. Lots of people get divorced.
Except that he was a self-professed devout Christian who wore his Christianity on his sleeve as one of the reasons Texans should vote for him.
This post was edited on 10/2/26 at 9:01 am
Posted on 10/2/26 at 8:59 am to Stinger_1066
Wow, Talarico campaign has gotten so bad they have decided campaign funds are best shifted from ads to Polymarket bets to enhance his image
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:01 am to ynlvr
quote:
Cornyn is NOT a win.
He's better than Talarico
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:02 am to Lou Pai
This should not be a competitve race with the views of Talarico. But when a POTUS has such bad numbers, inflation, gas prices, new war, Congress will typically flip from the POTUS party. It's just always done it. So I'm expecting it.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:02 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Muh establishnent we want them out
FAFO
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:10 am to Lou Pai
quote:
Texas should be a safe seat
There has always been a lot of progressive types in Texas.
Texas has never been as conservative as people want to beleive and its not because of hispanics.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:11 am to SlowFlowPro
But Talarico will not win
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:18 am to Bunk Moreland
(no message)
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:19 am to Trevaylin
quote:
Wow, Talarico campaign has gotten so bad they have decided campaign funds are best shifted from ads to Polymarket bets to enhance his image
It is possible that they could do that. All they would have to do is encourage supporters to go place bets in his favor. Pretty much the same as making a campaign contribution.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:20 am to TurkeyBaconLeg
Senate as do all Federal races come b4 state races on the ballot
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:20 am to Hulk Hogan
quote:
I would not be shocked, if the Democratic Party is placing bets for him. As a youth movement. I just don't see it.
quote:
Do you think that it's at all possible that democrats hire people to spam these sites ?
It seems like the absolute easiest poll to scam.
There is only $2000000 total involved. A lot of that total are real bets. How much would have to be spent to get the result that they want. The Dems already demonstrate how to spread out big individual donations over a gazillion little people.
What's the difference?
They just got greedy with the unrealistic 62%. Just one more poll to not pay attention to.
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