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re: Talarico now up to 62% odds in Polymarket
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:20 am to BoomerandSooner
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:20 am to BoomerandSooner
quote:
Starting to think prediction markets, like pollsters, ignore rural counties. Rural counties will not vote for Talarico, outside of the border counties.
I don’t think you can accurately poll most people who will vote for Paxton and most MAGA candidates. They simply won’t answer the phone or they are too busy. They will vote though.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:20 am to Lou Pai
You clearly don’t understand that the Democrats are manipulating Polymarkets by placing a couple of million dollar bets to game the polling statistics. Zero percent chance he wins.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:21 am to ragincajun03
2018 Poll Context
• The Poll: A Reuters/Ipsos poll in September 2018 showed Democrat Beto O'Rourke leading Republican incumbent Ted Cruz 47% to 45% among likely voters, which fell within the poll's margin of error.
• Campaign High Point: O'Rourke drew national attention and energized supporters by visiting all 254 Texas counties and outraising his opponent in fundraising.
• Other Polls: Most other polling during the cycle showed Cruz maintaining an advantage, and the race tightened significantly compared to past Texas elections.
Also, you need to factor in that polling has become far more questionable since 2018. Looking at you Des Moines register.
Remember the fake polling company? It was a social experiment to see if they could swing electors.
https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/08/fake-poll-california-politics/
Remember Wong leading by double digits in the Dem Primary for Wisconsin Gov?
https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/07/22/polls-show-hong-leading-with-almost-half-of-voters-undecided/
I prefer, unlike Hillary, to wait for actual results.
• The Poll: A Reuters/Ipsos poll in September 2018 showed Democrat Beto O'Rourke leading Republican incumbent Ted Cruz 47% to 45% among likely voters, which fell within the poll's margin of error.
• Campaign High Point: O'Rourke drew national attention and energized supporters by visiting all 254 Texas counties and outraising his opponent in fundraising.
• Other Polls: Most other polling during the cycle showed Cruz maintaining an advantage, and the race tightened significantly compared to past Texas elections.
Also, you need to factor in that polling has become far more questionable since 2018. Looking at you Des Moines register.
Remember the fake polling company? It was a social experiment to see if they could swing electors.
https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/08/fake-poll-california-politics/
Remember Wong leading by double digits in the Dem Primary for Wisconsin Gov?
https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/07/22/polls-show-hong-leading-with-almost-half-of-voters-undecided/
I prefer, unlike Hillary, to wait for actual results.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:21 am to La Place Mike
quote:
There has always been a lot of progressive types in Texas.
Texas has never been as conservative as people want to beleive and its not because of hispanics.
Especially since Rick Perry and Greg Abbott actively recruited Californians to move to Texas, along with H1B Indians and Muslims.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:22 am to NIH
Buzzbee is a democrat, married into a dem family in Galveston
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:24 am to La Place Mike
quote:
There has always been a lot of progressive types in Texas.
Texas has never been as conservative as people want to beleive and its not because of hispanics.
Don't read this as an argument for illegal immigration because I think it should be at 0 permanently, but if you're going to have a huge influx of people coming into your country we are lucky that the vast majority come from a population that is overwhelmingly Christian/Catholic and who value the institution of the family. If we had a bunch of Muslim countries to the south of us we would be completed fricked.
As far as Texas goes, Austin and other large cities have been getting an influx of people for years now and they aren't what you think of when we imagine a typical Texan. Would not surprise me at all if these polls turn out to be accurate and Talarico wins.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:28 am to Bunk Moreland
Rogers is toast, if he can’t get a pretty solid lead over El Sayed with everything that his come out, he is a loser and will lose probably in a landslide. There is no way a Republican can win a statewide election in Michigan outside of Trump. Since Rogers is not MAGA, the MAGA voters will not turn out.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:31 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
And they had a guaranteed win in Cornyn right there
This makes no sense at all.
If we are to believe Paxton will lose because of low turnout, what does that say about Cornyn losing to Paxton?
Maybe all the Bush/Cornyn voters should have voted if they felt like Paxton couldn’t beat Freakboy or Jazzy.
If Paxton loses, it’s squarely on the shoulders of the “establishment bogeymen” as you called them.
This post was edited on 10/2/26 at 9:35 am
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:34 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:The problem is a Cornyn win is functionally a loss.
And they had a guaranteed win in Cornyn right there
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:34 am to Tiger1955
quote:
Since Rogers is not MAGA, the MAGA voters will not turn out.
If this was that goofy female version of Chris Farley, I might agree. It is not her though. It is a socialist Muslim.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:35 am to Rip Torner
quote:The problem is traditional GOPE/Bush wing/Romeny moderates not supporting Paxton.
How exactly is this self inflicted when the voters of Texas nominated him? If fake conservatives are staying home or voting for Talerico
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:38 am to Taxing Authority
No
The problem is and this will be shown after the election that Independents that normally vote with the Republicans are fleeing to the Democrats now
one because of high gas prices and the shock of immigration enforcement, again not arguing against it it needed to be done but there's going to be a reaction
and then paxton is such a undesirable candidate and the Republicans have run such horrible campaigns statewide
And anyone that wants out of the bet is free to do
I'm not going to hold anyone to it,
im still committed to my end of it
The problem is and this will be shown after the election that Independents that normally vote with the Republicans are fleeing to the Democrats now
one because of high gas prices and the shock of immigration enforcement, again not arguing against it it needed to be done but there's going to be a reaction
and then paxton is such a undesirable candidate and the Republicans have run such horrible campaigns statewide
And anyone that wants out of the bet is free to do
I'm not going to hold anyone to it,
im still committed to my end of it
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:39 am to NIH
quote:Trump had to be dragged into endorsing him over Cornyn.
At least Paxton is pure MAGA
quote:
and has conservative advisors like Tony Buzbee
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:40 am to Lou Pai
quote:Largely due to the governor, who looks like he's getting re-elected.
Texas should be a safe seat and yet it’s going to exhaust a bunch of money and resources that should be directed elsewhere to competitive states.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:40 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Like I tell the people that asy "Kamala would have been worse!" This isn't an argument of merit.
Who is worse: Cornyn or Talarico?
And who is worse Paxton or Talarico?
This post was edited on 10/2/26 at 9:41 am
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:42 am to Taxing Authority
quote:
The problem is traditional GOPE/Bush wing/Romeny moderates not supporting Paxton.
If they can’t have their guy, their next best option is a Dem. Shows you that there really is a “uniparty” so to speak.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:43 am to OWLFAN86
quote:
No The problem is and this will be shown after the election that Independents that normally vote with the Republicans are fleeing to the Democrats now one because of high gas prices and the shock of immigration enforcement, again not arguing against it it needed to be done but there's going to be a reaction and then paxton is such a undesirable candidate and the Republicans have run such horrible campaigns statewide And anyone that wants out of the bet is free to do I'm not going to hold anyone to it, im still committed to my end of it
So how would Cornyn win?
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:45 am to AGGIES
quote:I don't disagree. Vote him out in 6 years. Talarico and Cornyn have many of the same issues.
Just no morals at all, in any examples.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:47 am to loogaroo
quote:
So how would Cornyn win?
That’s the delusion. Somehow Paxton, the guy who beat Cornyn, can’t win but Cornyn would’ve. Makes tons of sense if you latch on to shitty candidates and cry because the guy who won you didn’t support because maga did.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:52 am to OWLFAN86
quote:
The problem is traditional GOPE/Bush wing/Romeny moderates not supporting Paxton.
quote:
No The problem is and this will be shown after the election that Independents that normally vote with the Republicans are fleeing to the Democrats now
We're literally talking about the same people. The OP was saying the problem was conservatives not supporting Paxton. quote:Indeed. No disagreement on that. TX republicans as a group have become an odd bunch. Because it's become so difficult to win with D after your name, plenty of Democrat-lite people run and support republicans. Makes it tough to make sense of things many times. And blindly voting for republicans has become impossible.
and then paxton is such a undesirable candidate and the Republicans have run such horrible campaigns statewide
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