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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:02 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
There is no question CV19 is more lethal than common flu. None!
"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza"
- Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D. in the NEJM
It actually is a question. Dr. Ferguson (famous Imperial College modeler) has already started walking back his forecast mortality rate ... by an order of magnitude.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:03 pm to Superquincy
quote:
If it hits H1N1 numbers.
60 million infected
260k hospitalized
12000 dead
Only then will I take any of this more serious. Because the talking heads didn't give a good god damn about H1N1.
This... /thread
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:06 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:People are slobs. They don't wash their hands and if they do, they immediately touch the tainted door handle as they walk out of the bathroom.
germ awareness in the workplace.
I suppose after this is over we'll examine what other countries did and how that impacted the spread.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:06 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Message
Serious question to those who feel this is being overblown
I haven’t read all 8 pages but do want to point out 1 thing.
Taking this outbreak very seriously AND thinking there has been a massive overreaction by politicians and the general public are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
They can very easily both be true.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:08 pm to David_DJS
quote:We'll see. But, now we're onboard with Fauci?
"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza"
- Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D. in the NEJM
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:11 pm to memphis tiger
Laura Ingraham just said on Fox the same group in France did the Hydroxychloroquine and Z Pack again 79/80 were cured.
1 87 yr old man in an advanced stage died.
1 87 yr old man in an advanced stage died.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:14 pm to Jake88
quote:
We'll see. But, now we're onboard with Fauci?
We're onboard with acknowledging that we really don't know what the mortality rate of COVID-19 is.
We do know that a high percentage of people carrying the virus never know or suspect it. And we know there have been no studies to bring them into the calculation of a mortality rate.
So are you a believer in the Dr Ferguson's 1st model (as many as 2.2 million Americans die in a worst case scenario) or his most recent update (88,000 deaths in a worst case scenario - extrapolating his comments about the same model for the UK)?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:15 pm to sms151t
quote:
thought he got arrested for starting wildfires
He did. Apparently the kids he was trying to smuggle out of there for his sex ring escaped and turned him in for the arsons.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:15 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:N_C, I hear Dr. Fauci & Dr. Birx say up to 80% of CV-19 infected people never seek medical help because their symptoms are so mild.
There is no question CV19 is more lethal than common flu.
If true, we can multiply the number of confirmed cases by 4 to arrive at the real number of infected persons. That would reduce the mortality % to around .20% - .25% or so.
Would that mean it’s still more lethal than the flu?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:18 pm to LSURussian
quote:
If true, we can multiply the number of confirmed cases by 4 to arrive at the real number of infected persons. That would reduce the mortality % to around .20% - .25% or so.
Would that mean it’s still more lethal than the flu?
Also consider that the mortality rate, whatever it was at the beginning of the scare, will drop substantially as our Doctors develop better treatments for those seriously ill with the virus.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:20 pm to David_DJS
quote:
It actually is a question. Dr. Ferguson (famous Imperial College modeler) has already started walking back his forecast mortality rate ... by an order of magnitude.
Not true: LINK
quote:
The paper actually offered simulations of numerous scenarios. The one resulting in 500,000 deaths was one where Great Britain just carried on life as before. Other scenarios, where the country locked down whenever it was necessary to stop the disease’s spread, put death totals below 20,000. (See the rightmost death columns of Tables 4 and 5.)
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:36 pm to David_DJS
quote:I never believed the worst case scenarios. What I know is that I don't know enough to be strident on either side of this issue.
So are you a believer in the Dr Ferguson's 1st model (as many as 2.2 million Americans die in a worst case scenario) or his most recent update (88,000 deaths in a worst case scenario - extrapolating his comments about the same model for the UK)?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:37 pm to frogglet
quote:Yes, it IS true.
Not true
What he changed in his prediction this week is he no longer thinks the worst case scenario is a possibility.
He now believes fatalities will not exceed 20,000. Period.
He also changed his prediction regarding how long before the virus will peak.
quote:
Yesterday, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology that he is now “reasonably confident” there will not be an ICU shortage in London and that the fatalities will not exceed 20,000 in the U.K. He predicts that two-thirds of those would have died by the end of the year due to other conditions anyway. And rather than this lasting 18 months, as he projected in his first paper, which widely drove policies in the U.K. and U.S., Ferguson now predicts the virus will peak in “two or three weeks.”
LINK
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:38 pm to Superquincy
quote:
12000 dead
Only then will I take any of this more serious.
You'd have to be foolish at this point to think we don't hit 12K dead
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:39 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Yes, it IS true.
What he changed in his prediction this week is he no longer thinks the worst case scenario is a possibility.
He now believes fatalities will not exceed 20,000. Period.
Reread the link I posted. He thinks that because of the lockdown that the UK put in place.
edit: or just read it from the man himself:
LINK
quote:
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 9:42 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:41 pm to LSURussian
quote:
He now believes fatalities will not exceed 20,000. Period.
Not really
This is his statement clarifying his position
quote:
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
Refer to the updated portion at the bottom of this article
LINK
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:44 pm to Jake88
quote:
I never believed the worst case scenarios. What I know is that I don't know enough to be strident on either side of this issue.
Yet, you’re on this board everyday acting like you do.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:46 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:No, I'm not. I can't say if we've overreacted or not.
Yet, you’re on this board everyday acting like you do.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:48 pm to Jake88
quote:
I can't say if we've overreacted or not.
That's one of those things that's impossible to know
We don't know what the next couple of weeks might look like absent the extreme measures we've taken
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