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re: SCOTUS rules on Callais

Posted on 4/29/26 at 2:16 pm to
Posted by catholictigerfan
Member since Oct 2009
60005 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

Will those states redistrict in time?


So if they don't redraw the lines in time, wouldn't that mean they are using unconstitutional districts and would make any election unconstitutional?

It would seem they must redraw them to be in line with the Constitution.
Posted by SoggyCerealClub
Member since Apr 2026
138 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

Is the 5th the second minority district? What percentage?

Yes, would be 54% black & 51% black in terms of residents of voting age.
Posted by MidWestGuy
Illinois
Member since Nov 2018
2019 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

I do believe Louisiana has enough minority residents to justify a 2nd district, ...
What is this talk about a '2nd District" The number of districts is based on the latest census, and that puts LA at six.

Are you talking about something else?
This post was edited on 4/29/26 at 2:54 pm
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
115916 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

So if they don't redraw the lines in time, wouldn't that mean they are using unconstitutional districts and would make any election unconstitutional?

It would seem they must redraw them to be in line with the Constitution


Yes, and, in fact, the State of Louisiana should tell Shelly Dick to frick herself regarding oversight/ approval of the new districts that are about to be drawn.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
59644 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

Will those states redistrict in time?


I think the timer on that won't start until there's a lawsuit, so it's going to vary from district to district. I was hearing something earlier where someone made an estimate of it taking ~6 months for a state to re-district.

For us here in Louisiana, I wouldn't expect them to get it done in time for this year's election. The legislature will likely dither for the rest of this session to create a need for a special session (read: per diem pay) after regular session is over. They'll dither a bit more and then probably submit something just a smidge too late for this election cycle.
Posted by Kjnstkmn
Vermilion Parish
Member since Aug 2020
22150 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 3:00 pm to
Posted by Wally Sparks
Atlanta
Member since Feb 2013
32781 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 3:06 pm to
Looks like Lucy McBath in GA-6 is gonna have to move again.
Posted by LSUbasketballfan
Member since Jan 2021
711 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

Ironically enough, I think Cleo Fields map was the best.


No. Black parts of Baton Rouge and black parts of New Orleans should not be in the same district just because they are black parts of the cities
Posted by laxtonto
Member since Mar 2011
2794 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 3:43 pm to
As bad as some of these min/maj gerrymandering districts have been in Congress, wait till you see how this impacts the state-level House, Senate, and lower-level maps.

In Louisiana alone, 29 House + 11 Senate majority-Black districts will be under automatic scrutiny. Now start looking at parish and city councils, as well as school board districts, across the state.

Texas will be a blood bath for the democrats as well. In truth this will have a huge impact at the local level all across the south.

Posted by SoggyCerealClub
Member since Apr 2026
138 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 3:53 pm to
A 2nd majority-minority district, which is what this case is all about.

Louisiana would still have 6 districts. The holdup is trying to figure out how to draw up that 2nd minority district.

With the ruling in this case, the map will change. It could go 4-2 back to 5-1 or 6-0.
Posted by SoggyCerealClub
Member since Apr 2026
138 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

No. Black parts of Baton Rouge and black parts of New Orleans should not be in the same district just because they are black parts of the cities


Cleo Fields proposed map (SB1) did not have both these cities in the same district.


Posted by Sams Crow
Member since Apr 2026
243 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 4:09 pm to
Head throbbing? That's the idea.
Posted by OU Guy
Member since Feb 2022
31056 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 4:16 pm to
Christian Heiens
@ChristianHeiens

You can easily draw an 8-0 congressional map in Missouri where every district voted for Trump by at least 12 points.

Republicans don't have to just settle for dismantling the Kansas City district. They can destroy the St. Louis one as well.

With Callais no longer ensuring that Democrats get free Congressional seats based on race, there's no reason to keep this district intact any longer. All 8 of these districts have swung right since 2012, so there's very little risk of this turning into a dummymander.



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Posted by LaBoyNTn
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2005
730 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 4:20 pm to
And La AG! And both chambers of Congress! But most especially the trial lawyer governor
Posted by laxtonto
Member since Mar 2011
2794 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 4:22 pm to
If you guys really want to dig this, think about what this does for viable national-level Democratic candidates. They are going to need southern candidates to hope to pull at least one additional state needed for the new post-2030 census maps to break 270. Even with the entire blue wall, which is becoming much more difficult with the shifts in WI and PA, they need to now get both NV and AZ or get EC votes somewhere else.

So the viable answer would be to grab a Democratic-leaning southern state. Funny enough,if the local and state gerrymandered districts get decimated, the potential bench of viable new blood candidates shrinks even further.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
44433 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 4:28 pm to
quote:

As bad as some of these min/maj gerrymandering districts have been in Congress, wait till you see how this impacts the state-level House, Senate, and lower-level maps.

In Louisiana alone, 29 House + 11 Senate majority-Black districts will be under automatic scrutiny. Now start looking at parish and city councils, as well as school board districts, across the state.

Texas will be a blood bath for the democrats as well. In truth this will have a huge impact at the local level all across the south.


Exactly correct ... 110%. This is huge for our beloved South. But why?

It's huge on a State level, as you have already eluded to. But it's also huge on a Federal level because ....

1 - The '65 VRA was predicated on race, based upon race, because at the time the South had the largest per capita black population and the yankees knew that.

What was it that LBJ said? Paraphrasing ... "Once we sign this Bill into law we'll own the black vote forever," or something like that.

2 - Disenfranchised yankees have been moving South in droves. Our population has tripled since the mid-60s. And in the process we've been gaining voting power on a Federal level ... which the dems have tried to negate by gerrymandering. That is now overwith ... caput. In essence, it's a 24 seat swing in the South -12/+12 ... and that's huge.

So here's the next hurdle to overcome.

The SAVE Act. The democrats saw this coming and they've been trying to compensate with importing illegals for the sole purpose of illegal voting and anchor babies who are awarded birthright citizenship. How do we correct that? We keep fighting for The SAVE Act to be passed. We gain a solid majority and then get the law passed. That's gotta be next.

Obama made it clear what their objectives were during his exit interview in 2016 when he stated that his actions wouldn't be immediately felt, but that long term the anchor babies would one day be voters. And he doubled down in his third term during the Biden administration.
Posted by RT1941
Member since May 2007
32178 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

scrooster
Thank you for your efforts in providing clarification on this ruling.
Posted by MidWestGuy
Illinois
Member since Nov 2018
2019 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 4:43 pm to
Oh, district # 2 of the six. I just read it wrong, brain-fart on my part, thanks.
Posted by laxtonto
Member since Mar 2011
2794 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 4:57 pm to
If you want to do some other long term crystal ball gazing, think what this does in 2028 maps as well and how easy it would be to make a “compromise” as a R presidential nominee to promise to force congress to develop an algorithm based math driven congressional district map formula.

There is no way that, on the whole, the Red states redistricting is less skewed than the Dems. Knowing that there is a 2030 census, the number of congressmen will shift significantly towards the south and out of blue states. Since we are no where near as skewed as a whole, any automated system will in the long run benefit the Republicans.

Run on forcing “gerrymandering-free” districts across the entire nation and force the dems on voting against it and have them explain why they are against the idea or embrace it and provide more competitive R races in the blue states.

I don’t think people realize how big of thing this is. We are talking about forcing the death of many of the extreme partisan blue districts that have driven a ton of the racial animosity the last 20 years.
Posted by N.O. via West-Cal
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2004
7911 posts
Posted on 4/29/26 at 5:01 pm to
This really isn’t fair to any of them, for different reasons. Until this ruling today, Judge Dick’s ruling was very much in line with VRA precedent, which was drastically altered today.
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