re: Rubio: “Have to reexamine the value of NATO and alliances for our country.”

quote:

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I was just pointing out that, while that is a common goal in the rotation used in the Art of the Deal marketing strategy online, it isn't likely. Similar to regime change. Nobody has articulated a strategy that wouldn't lead to a stronger Iran-China relationship following this war, similar to how they didn't propose a viable strategy for regime change (and I use past tense b/c it seems regime change is a dead avenue now).

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I was negative-ambivalent on this when it looked like another nuclear wack-a-mole scenario with an assassination to see if they’d crumble.

I was opposed to it as soon as it was clear that Iran wasn’t crumbling, we didn’t have a deal with the IRGC and Israel wasn’t letting Trump walk away from it because they have much larger regional aspirations they need us to achieve for them.

I’m loudly 100% opposed to them escalating to a ground war for a litany of reasons I’ve already outlined.

We’re currently stuck in a Mexican standoff as I see it with the clock negatively impacting both sides hopefully resulting in some sort of deal.

On one side we have total naval and aerial control of the area and their economy is completely shut down making us the only safe major global source for oil while not really impacting our domestic supply which itself is a massive point of leverage for Trump.

On the other side they don’t care if their people starve because they’re religious extremists and our entire economic recovery becomes impossible if the world economy craters due to oil supply issues. My concern on that front stems from the downstream impact of that on our debt service situation particularly in an inflationary environment.

To get to a point of long term economic stability we need low interest rates and growth. That’s not where we’re quickly headed and no one wants to talk about that here because it’s complicated and negative.

But there are scenarios that end with us in an advantaged situation wherein we now control the strait with a neutered or neutral Iranian regime making us the global arbiters of the energy markets and thus able to set the terms for a post NWO/globalist order but we are not there and there are at least as many potential scenarios which end poorly for us at this point so I think it’s on a knife’s edge currently.