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re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:29 am to Desert King
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:29 am to Desert King
Can you discuss the impact of an inversion as an indicator to recession as determined by 10 year treasury yields? In other words, is it more ominous when the inversion occurs when yields are high?
I read that the last several inversions occurred when 10 year treasury yields were over 6% on average. At this point, they are closer to 2%. Just curious if that makes a difference.
I read that the last several inversions occurred when 10 year treasury yields were over 6% on average. At this point, they are closer to 2%. Just curious if that makes a difference.
0
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:32 am to Jjdoc
Trump Election = Rothchild Recession
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:45 am to Desert King
bullshite.
there was an inverted yield curve earlier this summer.
there was an inverted yield curve earlier this summer.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:25 am to yatesdog38
quote:Do you mean except for the recession ending about 3 months later??
There was nothing leading about that.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 12:07 pm to Desert King
Dow down 750 now. This is bad. Real bad. We could be staring down the barrel of a 2008 level crash beginning
Posted on 8/14/19 at 12:25 pm to Auslander
quote:Good luck with all that given where rates are presently.
fricking love it; that means RE is about to tank and it's gonna be a buyer's paradise.
quote:
Can usually get multifamly buildings on the cheap bc of competition and Class B/C being outweighed by new units in the market.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 12:28 pm to LSUBanker
quote:Nah. Don't fall for Yellen's bullshite on this. Maybe some pain in HY and maybe some ratings migration from IG to Xover.
It's corporate debt levels
Posted on 8/14/19 at 12:49 pm to deltaland
quote:
Dow down 750 now. This is bad. Real bad. We could be staring down the barrel of a 2008 level crash beginning
Lol
Posted on 8/14/19 at 1:25 pm to deltaland
quote:
Dow down 750 now. This is bad. Real bad. We could be staring down the barrel of a 2008 level crash beginning
Posted on 8/14/19 at 1:26 pm to Desert King
Even a recession will be fake news around here.
You can't drag a trade war out and expect no repercussions. It's not "winning" to try and tank other countries' economies. We're all in the same boat, economically these days.
You can't drag a trade war out and expect no repercussions. It's not "winning" to try and tank other countries' economies. We're all in the same boat, economically these days.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 8/14/19 at 1:32 pm to Northwestern tiger
Means nothing
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:31 pm to Desert King
Yeah but this goes against the winning narrative so downvotes for you!
All the winning!
All the winning!
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:32 pm to TejasHorn
But the minions don’t like hearing reality....downvote to you!!!!
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:33 pm to Desert King
quote:How often does it fall with no recession occurring?
On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.
Ahead of the last recession, the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:35 pm to Desert King
False. Money flowing in from Europe and Asia because of negative interest rates there. Flight to safety. They are buying Treasuries, especially 10 yr bonds, thus driving the price up and yields down. The economy and the fundamentals are a lot stronger than previous times and the underlying causes are completely different. A great buying opportunity.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:39 pm to TejasHorn
quote:
Even a recession will be fake news around here.
We’re not in a recession yet, and thanks to the fear mongering by the people writing these articles, the tools on Wall Street have tanked the market today.
Congrats
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:39 pm to iron banks
orange man as dangerous as aoc, bernie and warren. plus, he is bigger liar.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:42 pm to AlceeFortier
quote:
orange man as dangerous as aoc, bernie and warren. plus, he is bigger liar.
What a well thought out and lucid point. I am glad you folks finally woke up and came join us.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:43 pm to cajuncarguy
Consumer debt is high, student loan debt is at all time high and corporate buybacks are inflating EPS.
as a whole fundamentals are still pretty strong but tread lightly. 3rd quarter projections aren't great... buy buy buy! always buy. don't stop buyliving
as a whole fundamentals are still pretty strong but tread lightly. 3rd quarter projections aren't great... buy buy buy! always buy. don't stop buyliving
Posted on 8/14/19 at 2:54 pm to yatesdog38
Consumer debt is high - still lower than pre-2008.
Student Loan debt high - won't put us in a recession
Buybacks are inflating EPS - to a degree, but even before Aug 1st stocks were price at "fair value" compare to historical EPS over the last 20 years. Today they are cheaper.
One more point about buybacks when factoring in the historically low IPOs. The supply of total shares in the market is at all-time low, therefore I don't see a collapse in equities like 2008.
Buy on the dips like Dec '18 & May '19 or dollar-cost average.
Student Loan debt high - won't put us in a recession
Buybacks are inflating EPS - to a degree, but even before Aug 1st stocks were price at "fair value" compare to historical EPS over the last 20 years. Today they are cheaper.
One more point about buybacks when factoring in the historically low IPOs. The supply of total shares in the market is at all-time low, therefore I don't see a collapse in equities like 2008.
Buy on the dips like Dec '18 & May '19 or dollar-cost average.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 2:58 pm
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