re: Place your bets: DPRK fires missles towards Guam as being claimed- yes or no

I think the key to all of this has been separating NK from China. NK has played this game before knowing we wouldn't do anything because China has their backs. Things have changed for China though. They have a lot to lose economically with us, more so than in the past. I think the Trump admin has effectively leveraged that into separating China from NK. On the other front, they can't be sure if Trump is bluffing or dead serious with his fire and fury comments. I imagine what is taking place now is that China is putting the screws to NK to force some sort of change and the Trump admin is keeping the pressure on China to effectively muzzle the fat boy.

Do I think DPRK fires a "nuclear" missile toward Guam? NO - not at this point. The reason I do not think they will is "if" they have the capability to outfit a warhead now, they will not waste the limited number they have in their inventory on a platform that is not fully tested...

Do I think there is a possibility that DPRK could fire a missile toward Guam as a "test". YES, I think that is a very real possibility. While DPRK has been testing their missiles for years, they have not really performed long range tests, especially the tests necessary to prove the delivery platform can survive reentry or hit the "target" at distance. Right now DPRK supposedly has the warhead and the delivery platform but the delivery platform is suspect at best in the eyes of the rest of the world. So, here is what DPRK gains by doing it:

1. A fully tested platform that is proven capable of hitting within 25 kilometers of a designated target within the range of the platform. Even if it fails, they gain the data necessary to make the adjustments to improve the platform. However if it works - they have changed the game so to speak.
2. It gives the big middle finger to the U.S. and its allies in the region - Kim is all about this.
3. It potentially pushes the U.S. to strike first and if there are no warheads on the missiles and DPRK claims it was simply a missile test then that first strike gives the U.S. a black eye so to speak. It also gives Kim the "reason" to go ahead and flatten Seoul.
4. If the U.S. attempts to intercept the missiles and fails to do so, the U.S. takes another hit in the world of public opinion.
5. If the U.S. does nothing, it is a win win for the DPRK and Kim continues doing what he does.

Now, Kim is determined to develop nuclear weapons capable of hitting the mainland U.S. He has got to continue to test missiles in order to do that and he has got to prove to the rest of the world that he has done that. That is his "end game". I do not think he intends to ever nuke the U.S. or one of its territories or one of its allies but if he can develop the technology to do so then he will provide a better position for the DPRK on the world stage (at least in his eyes).

The real question becomes - where is the point that the U.S. says this is not going to happen?

Doubtful. If they do, not even China will have a reason to say anything about our response.

He isn't going to fire his missles at anyone. And neither are we.

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A) Send nukes and hit Guam

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They don't have a miniaturized nuke to put on an intermediate range ballistic missile or the guidance system to hit Guam with it, if they could.

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B) Send ICBMs with no nuclear payload and splash down before hitting Guam

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It doesn't take an ICBM to hit Guam, and they don't really have one, anyway. But they're getting there. It takes an intermediate range ballistic missile to hit Guam, which they have, but their guidance systems may not be up to snuff to put one out there that far and on target.

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C) Do nothing

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Probably. But they'll also probably engage in some other provocation (missiles into Sea of Japan, artillery rounds to a SK island, small boat attacks) and just act like this is a feint.

What is the big deal if they fire missiles toward but way short of Guam?

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What is the big deal if they fire missiles toward but way short of Guam?

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Because once launched, there is a limited time to take them out, and waiting to figure trajectory and range greatly limits that time frame.

OK, well, shoot back as soon as they launch it toward Guam. And yes they will launch toward Guam.

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Do I think DPRK fires a "nuclear" missile toward Guam? NO - not at this point. The reason I do not think they will is "if" they have the capability to outfit a warhead now, they will not waste the limited number they have in their inventory on a platform that is not fully tested...

Do I think there is a possibility that DPRK could fire a missile toward Guam as a "test". YES, I think that is a very real possibility.

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This is my line of thinking as well. They know if they fire a nuke at Guam (or anyone else), it is game over.

But, fire a test so that it splashes down in international waters near Guam, to prove that they can do it, as well as see what the US reaction would be. Either goad us into a real first strike and make us look like the bad guy to the rest of the world, or thumb their nose at us for not doing anything.