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re: Peter Schiff says we are early in the biggest bond market crash in U.S. history
Posted on 10/3/23 at 10:43 am to Jake88
Posted on 10/3/23 at 10:43 am to Jake88
quote:
Is he they guy that's been predicting this for the last 20 years?
Maybe. He and Michael Burry both predict a crash or two every year.
That being said, I don't see how he is wrong about some of what I put in the OP.
This post was edited on 10/3/23 at 10:44 am
0
Posted on 10/3/23 at 10:47 am to stout
I wish we had a moment in time that could have helped us predict exactly what's about to transpire from this current and incompetent administration. Oh wait silly me, we do, Carter and his reckless regulations on energy, runaway inflation followed by the ultimate cherry on top--stagflation. I mean who doesn't like double digit prime rates, unemployment and rationed commodities. Good times, hanging in a chow line.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 10:48 am to stout
Bidenomics at work
Posted on 10/3/23 at 10:55 am to stout
quote:
There is no soft landing. I said this months ago as has anyone with a brain.
Same here. The landing was always going to be just as "soft" as the inflation was "transitory".
Posted on 10/3/23 at 10:56 am to stout
quote:
Name me a crypto you trust as a store of value that is less volatile than any other means.
They are too volatile to be a short term storage of wealth.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:00 am to Broke
quote:
They are too volatile to be a short term storage of wealth.
That is one of the arguments Schiff used when stating bitcoin was worthless
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:00 am to stout
Is this what is know as STAGFLATION? Whatever you do doesn't help, right?
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:11 am to Timeoday
quote:
Is this what is know as STAGFLATION? Whatever you do doesn't help, right?
Sort of...
Stagflation is when you have high inflation, rising Unemployment and stagnant GDP.
The cure for that has been to raise interest rates, but the issue is that rates are already high. What this means is JPow is going to be forced to do the Volker thing and frick segments of the economy by raising them extremely high in a very short period in order to beat inflation down (through making more people poor, basically).
On top of that, we have student loan repayments starting back and government debt servicing accounting for at least 20% of net revenues (and likely to quickly increase as the government borrows more and high -and likely increasing- rates). This means that we're setting up for a massive economic crash where the federal government won't be able to fund the social programs which have pulled many through softer economic tribulations.
But... if someone sees things playing out differently I am all ears to hear how they foresee it happening.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:15 am to stout
Hasn't been saying this for like a decade?
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:17 am to Bard
quote:
The cure for that has been to raise interest rates, but the issue is that rates are already high. What this means is JPow is going to be forced to do the Volker thing and frick segments of the economy by raising them extremely high in a very short period in order to beat inflation down
I was an economics professor for 20 years. Inflation comes from an "overheated" and "fast growing" economy. That's not what we have here. We don't look out and think "man this economy is so good we have to slow it down" because the economy is actually pretty horrendous right now. Our issues stem from supply chain issues and the printing of money like we are fricking lunatics.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:19 am to Bard
quote:
This means that we're setting up for a massive economic crash where the federal government won't be able to fund the social programs which have pulled many through softer economic tribulations.
But... if someone sees things playing out differently I am all ears to hear how they foresee it happening.
The really crazy part is this is global, not just local to the good ole USA.
The Euros are F'ed. Chyna is F'ed. Everyone is F'ed.
The US is just a little less F'ed then some of those other guys...
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:24 am to SlowFlowPro
Assuming he is right, time to buy gold!!
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:28 am to Bard
quote:
for a massive economic crash where the federal government won't be able to fund the social programs
It’s crazy that we are essentially borrowing from China to pay for Ukraine, I mean it’s been crazy for a while, but there is no longer a point of reference, we are way off the path.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:28 am to Broke
quote:
Inflation comes from an "overheated" and "fast growing" economy.
quote:
Our issues stem from supply chain issues and the printing of money like we are fricking lunatics.
Printing money = inflation.
Our economy has been overheated and fast growing...compared to where it should have been post-2008. It's all been a house of cards built on printed money and cheap debt.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:29 am to Padme
quote:
we are essentially borrowing from China to pay for Ukraine
wut
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:31 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
wut
We aren’t bringing in enough money to pay our bills, so everything is being borrowed. Which means all the money going to the guy who plays the piano with his cock is borrowed and subject to interest.
The part of the argument which is incorrect is likely WHO holds our debt. Last I checked, the government was buying its own debt because no one else would.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:33 am to teke184
quote:
We aren’t bringing in enough money to pay our bills, so everything is being borrowed.
Sure. I thought mostly Americans were buying the debt, still.
quote:
The part of the argument which is incorrect is likely WHO holds our debt.
That's the "wut".
China hasn't been this major buyer of US debt for some time, and Ukraine spending is a drop in the bucket
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:37 am to Broke
quote:
I was an economics professor for 20 years. Inflation comes from an "overheated" and "fast growing" economy. That's not what we have here. We don't look out and think "man this economy is so good we have to slow it down" because the economy is actually pretty horrendous right now. Our issues stem from supply chain issues and the printing of money like we are fricking lunatics.
Agreed. A lot of the "strong economy" we heard about post-COVID was the economy trying to catch up to pre-COVID levels and consumers trying to maintain increasing amounts of their lifestyles on the backs of their credit cards (whose rates have been rising).
As the reality starts to sink in to many (because the news finally reports it, sooooo sometime in Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year), I can't help but wonder if we aren't going to see securities being bought at insane levels, thus lowering those rates some.
If so, I don't see how that does anything but prolong the pain as the federal government will likely just use that extra money as a basis for creating even more deficit spending.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:39 am to ScottFowler
quote:
The really crazy part is this is global, not just local to the good ole USA.
The Euros are F'ed. Chyna is F'ed. Everyone is F'ed.
The US is just a little less F'ed then some of those other guys...
To borrow and old quote (paraphrased from an even older quote): When the US sneezes (economy-wise) the rest of the world catches a cold.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:39 am to teke184
quote:
But Yellen et all think we are fine and that a shutdown would cause a recession.
That geriatric garden troll said she didn’t see inflation coming after all that govt spending.
We’d be better off if we did the exact opposite of what she says. It’s astounding how these dumbshit people keep getting put in critical positions of authority and they’re never removed even after being wrong about everything.
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