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Started By
Message
re: Per the CDC 98% of people tested have been negative
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:35 pm to TigerCruise
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:35 pm to TigerCruise
Well damn I just got my hands on some TP
Oh well
Oh well
0
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:36 pm to frogglet
quote:
Well, since March 1, we have been doubling cases about every 3 days. At that rate, it would take about 1.5 months to reach about 50%.
LOL
That's not how exponential curves work at all
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:48 pm to ShortyRob
That's exactly how exponential curves work. This thing won't follow an exponential curve forever, obviously, but that is how exponential curves work nonetheless.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:48 pm to TigerCruise
Now that the testing logjam has broken, the tests will flood in and I expect confirmed cases will actually skyrocket.
I am excluding Washington State from calculations so far, so we can do an apples-to-apples comparison to more expected outcomes.
So, taking Washington's numbers out, the CFR is sitting at about 0.8% and falling. Fingers crossed this drops throughout next week and we can being to relax - a little. The hospitals should be in for a bumpy ride - the media has convinced easily panicked Americans that anyone with the sniffles should "get tested" and many of these same people will flood hospitals, where they will risk infecting others if they have a mild case of this or, ironically, increase their chances of contracting if they don't already have it.
I think we're in the second quarter, but we will see. So far, USA is up big over the Wuhan Flu.
I am excluding Washington State from calculations so far, so we can do an apples-to-apples comparison to more expected outcomes.
So, taking Washington's numbers out, the CFR is sitting at about 0.8% and falling. Fingers crossed this drops throughout next week and we can being to relax - a little. The hospitals should be in for a bumpy ride - the media has convinced easily panicked Americans that anyone with the sniffles should "get tested" and many of these same people will flood hospitals, where they will risk infecting others if they have a mild case of this or, ironically, increase their chances of contracting if they don't already have it.
I think we're in the second quarter, but we will see. So far, USA is up big over the Wuhan Flu.
This post was edited on 3/14/20 at 7:50 pm
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:49 pm to TigerCruise
quote:
Most likely the number in the US peaks in 2 weeks, everyone goes to back to normal life.
I hope so. I think in 2 weeks we'll see the rate of growth slow down due to the extra measures being taken now, but I doubt it will be enough to actually shut it down the way China was able to.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:50 pm to CP3LSU25
quote:
Can't wait till June when all this is forgotten so we can make fun of everyone who overhyped it.
This.
The skyscreamers are so positive that everyone is positive.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:51 pm to TigerCruise
quote:
This is going to end up being the biggest overhyped panic in the history of the United States.
I hope it is.
This goes one of two ways. It gets really bad and people bitch that not enough was done or not much happens and people bitch that it was all a bunch of BS and overblown.
Very few will consider that maybe not much happens BECAUSE of what is being done
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:51 pm to frogglet
quote:
I hope so. I think in 2 weeks we'll see the rate of growth slow down due to the extra measures being taken now, but I doubt it will be enough to actually shut it down the way China was able to.
Not to be a Debbie downer or anything, but, the word I'm getting is to expect to work from home thru EOM April and the people I'm getting that word from are...……..well...……...let's say in a position to be getting fed info from the top of the food chain.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:55 pm to frogglet
quote:Nope
That's exactly how exponential curves work
Oh, sure. If you just ASSUME the exponent goes on forever.
Alas, diseases operate on an S-curve(unless they're basically 100% fatal and slow incubating and NO ONE is immune. Even then, it's an S curve. You just never reach the S.
But sheesh, NO, we are NOT dealing with a pure exponential growth curve for reasons you SHOULD understand.
This post was edited on 3/14/20 at 7:57 pm
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:58 pm to cssamerican
quote:
I’m confused, I thought like a million people had this but we just hadn’t tested them yet. Something isn’t adding up.
CNN and MSNBC are screaming fake news.
This is going to be the biggest con ever perpetrated on a national level. Hey, but they got 8.2 billion to piss away.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 7:58 pm to frogglet
China is meaningless. China has merely stopped their initial infection.
We won't completely get rid of this until there is a vaccine and even then it will make its rounds like current coronaviruses do.
We won't completely get rid of this until there is a vaccine and even then it will make its rounds like current coronaviruses do.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:00 pm to TigerCruise
quote:
and these are the people with all of the symptoms.
This is going to end up being the biggest overhyped panic in the history of the United States.
Where I live we have went from about a week and a half of high temperatures in the 70s and low temperatures in the 50s and upper 40s to three or four straight days of high temperatures in the lower 50s and upper 40s and low temperatures back down into the mid 30s. That is a wonderful recipe to get a spring time cold. You have a better chance of finding toilet paper than you do of having the media point that out however.
This post was edited on 3/14/20 at 8:01 pm
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:01 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
But sheesh, NO, we are NOT dealing with a pure exponential growth curve for reasons you SHOULD understand.
That's why I stopped at 50%. I understand that it is basically impossible to remain exponential as remaining uninfected become scarce. I could have stopped at 25%, 3 days earlier I suppose.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:07 pm to frogglet
quote:Even then, that assumes a constant exponent for FAR longer than would make any sense. You couldn't maintain that if we did friggin nothing.
That's why I stopped at 50%. I understand that it is basically impossible to remain exponential as remaining uninfected become scarce. I could have stopped at 25%, 3 days earlier I suppose.
It's not just about the unaffected being scarce. The moment there's even a significant number of affected, it reduces the exponent. Because how many I infect is a function of how many UNAFFECTED I come in contact with.
If I tend to give it to 2 people when basically no one is affected, that's 2 out of however many people I routinely interact with.
But, the second even 5% of the people I routinely interact with are infected, my personal likelihood of infecting 2 people goes DOWN.
And again, that's assuming ZERO actions taken which literally no one advocates.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:08 pm to Stonehog
quote:
Demand for goods and services hasn't gone anywhere,
That’s just not true. Flights, cruises - fuel demand also dropped as a result. Restaurants, particularly ones that make their money around professional sports, or certain events/festivals.
This is already a major disruption.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:09 pm to TigerCruise
Looks like Lousiana wins again. Advocate says 77/210 tested are positive.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:10 pm to ShortyRob
Exponential growth in new cases aside, has anyone ever explained why 2/3 of the passengers on that Carnival Princess cruise ship never became infected?
They spent a week eating with, socializing with, breathing the same air and otherwise coming in close contact with hundreds of infected passengers yet they’ve remained virus free.
Yet we’re being told COVID-19 is extremely contagious.
That don’t make no damn sense....
They spent a week eating with, socializing with, breathing the same air and otherwise coming in close contact with hundreds of infected passengers yet they’ve remained virus free.
Yet we’re being told COVID-19 is extremely contagious.
That don’t make no damn sense....
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:10 pm to OceanMan
quote:
That’s just not true. Flights, cruises - fuel demand also dropped as a result. Restaurants, particularly ones that make their money around professional sports, or certain events/festivals.
No to mention all of the people who WERE going to earn money working those events, didn't.
Which means, THEY will be demanding less.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:15 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Exponential growth in new cases aside, has anyone ever explained why 2/3 of the passengers on that Carnival Princess cruise ship never became infected?
Well, they instituted quarantine on the ship pretty early on. A lot of people were surprised it continued to spread even after everyone was quarantined in their quarters.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:17 pm to frogglet
quote:
Well, they instituted quarantine on the ship pretty early on
1. which should have had basically no effect because they'd been interacting freely with infected people for at least a few days.
quote:
A lot of people were surprised it continued to spread even after everyone was quarantined in their quarters.
2. Anyone surprised didn't think about 1.
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