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re: Paul Ingrassia: The formula is simple...if you stand by Trump, you win

Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:16 pm to
Posted by tivey6301
Member since Jul 2011
2001 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

The only way DeSantis loses is if a lot of Trump supporters stay home. If a lot of them show up, DeSantis will not only win the Electoral College, but he will also win the Popular Vote.

Gotta call Bravo Sierra on this... If what you say is true, then DeSantis should be polling MUCH higher than he is. Don't get me wrong, I will vote for Desantis if he is the nominee. Hell, I would vote for Satan himself against a democrat.
Posted by dgnx6
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
69060 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

Because the majority of the field hasn’t declared yet. Most of the 2016 field hadn’t declared at this point either. Traditionally it’s the summer. Trump just did it way early to try to stake his claim to the nomination and scare off competition



So why the arguing?

Is Trump not the best candidate rt now?

You basically want me choose someone other than Trump that may or may not be running. Yeah that’s not going to work.

Posted by RammerJammer91
Member since Jan 2016
5211 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

You sound like you should probably vote for biden then.


What did he say that isn't true?

"And when you listen to him you get non senators Lake, Herschel and Dr Oz" - Last time I checked none of these people were in office and they underperformed other Republicans in their states.

"Then you get less votes....over and over again" - Trump lost the popular vote to the 2nd most hated candidate in U.S. History, and in 2020 he lost the popular vote AND the Electoral College to a 78 year-old racist with dementia.

Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116357 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

then DeSantis should be polling MUCH higher than he is.


Name the candidates that have polled better than he has, undeclared, a year out from the primaries, running against a former President
Posted by dgnx6
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
69060 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

I would take Vivek over Trump.


See I don’t know who that is.

So instead of constantly shitting on Trump.

Maybe prop up some other good candidates to convince people like me.

Btw I’ll vote for Ron if he does get it. I just had a feeling he wasn’t going to run until 2028.



Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116357 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

See I don’t know who that is.


Then you are the problem

Also its march of 2023. We are almost a year out from the first real Primaries. We have plenty of time to get to know other viable candidates.

Look at the R polls in March of 2015...
Posted by tivey6301
Member since Jul 2011
2001 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

Name the candidates that have polled better than he has

What does that have to do with him being WAY behind Trump? He's behind, WAY BEHIND. You like desantis, great for you. I was responding to "The only way DeSantis loses is if a lot of Trump supporters stay home. If a lot of them show up, DeSantis will not only win the Electoral College, but he will also win the Popular Vote".
Posted by Plx1776
Member since Oct 2017
16322 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:25 pm to
To be fair.. if you stand by trump and are somewhat popular... then the state or fed government will target you.

Flynn lost his house for allegedly committing a crime that nearly everyone who speaks under testimony in the house commits.

Kavanaugh's reputation has been destroyed and his family stalked and harassed. Several investigations into him as well. Because he was merely trump's nominee..

Roger stone and Rudy Giuliani are still endlessly harassed by gov agencies.

Posted by RammerJammer91
Member since Jan 2016
5211 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

Gotta call Bravo Sierra on this... If what you say is true, then DeSantis should be polling MUCH higher than he is. Don't get me wrong, I will vote for Desantis if he is the nominee. Hell, I would vote for Satan himself against a democrat.



In the 17 polls (DeSantis vs. Biden) on RCP, DeSantis is ahead in 10 of them, Biden is ahead in 5, and they're tied in 2. For an incumbent (Biden) to be trailing in the overall average and in as many polls against someone with nowhere near the same name ID (DeSantis), let alone someone who hasn't entered the race, that's a horrible look for Biden. DeSantis' numbers will surely grow against Biden in 1-on-1 polls.

Trump has the same or even higher name ID as Biden and he is losing in the head-to-head average on RCP. In the 23 polls taken since the first DeSantis-Biden poll, Biden is ahead in 12, Trump ahead in 9, and they've been tied in 2.

Posted by tivey6301
Member since Jul 2011
2001 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:28 pm to
What has voting for establishment republicans gotten us? h bush, w bush, mccain or romney? There wasn't a pound of difference between w bush and obama. For too long we've went with the wishy washy go-along-to-get-along republicans.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116357 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:28 pm to
quote:

What does that have to do with him being WAY behind Trump? He's behind, WAY BEHIND.


The two leading candidates in March of 2015 were....


Scott Walker and Jeb Bush. Trump wasn't even in the the poll.
Posted by dgnx6
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
69060 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:31 pm to
quote:

Then you are the problem


I know y’all keep telling me that.

I’m that independent voter you guys keep shutting on that made sure we didn’t have 16 years of democrats while your Republican brother like Michigan voted democrat.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116357 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:31 pm to
In addition, Biden was well behind in January of 2016 and lost Iowa.

He finished FOURTH in Iowa and still eventually got the nom.

None of this shite matters until 2024.
Posted by tivey6301
Member since Jul 2011
2001 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:31 pm to
quote:

In the 17 polls (DeSantis vs. Biden) on RCP, DeSantis is ahead in 10 of them, Biden is ahead in 5, and they're tied in 2. For an incumbent (Biden) to be trailing in the overall average and in as many polls against someone with nowhere near the same name ID (DeSantis), let alone someone who hasn't entered the race, that's a horrible look for Biden. DeSantis' numbers will surely grow against Biden in 1-on-1 polls.



Sounds to me like the media (which runs the polls) want go against Desantis and not Trump. Democrats and the media act like Trump scares the bejesus out of them.

Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116357 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:32 pm to
quote:

Sounds to me like the media (which runs the polls) want go against Desantis and not Trump. Democrats and the media act like Trump scares the bejesus out of them.


HERRRRRDERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Posted by tivey6301
Member since Jul 2011
2001 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:32 pm to
Ok. It will all work itself out then, right? You should certainly not be worried at this point and not be arguing, because history shows it will work out in your favor. right? Yet here you are....
Posted by tivey6301
Member since Jul 2011
2001 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

HERRRRRDERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Is that supposed to mean something?
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116357 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

Is that supposed to mean something?


That the gibberish you spouted was total nonsense.
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5075 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

That would include the voter chosen America First candidates.


People like Doug Mastriano and Dr. Oz are dumbass losers who have no business being American First candidates
Blake Masters is a weirdo with some good ideas but has no chance to win a statewide election in a purple state

Kent was a good one but the GOP screwed him - he was also in a blue state
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116357 posts
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

Ok. It will all work itself out then, right? You should certainly not be worried at this point and not be arguing, because history shows it will work out in your favor. right?


That is what you took from all of that? Sheesh.

No, it won't always "work out". The point was simply that these things are unpredictable and we cannot know shite until at least March of 2024, if history is any indication.

Trump is still most likely to win the nomination especially given recent events, given the crazed cult like devotion of his following.

IF I was placing a wager for the nom it would be on Trump, but its still ok to let the process play out and hope for a candidate that can win a National election.
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