re: Paul Ingrassia: The formula is simple...if you stand by Trump, you win

quote:

---

So you will only vote R if desantis runs.

You should have just said that from the beginning jack arse.

---

I'll vote for whoever the nominee is. I'd vote for Trump knowing he would lose again

Well all I was asking was who are the others to vote for and you give me a name that’s not running.

I’ll give you one I know of. Niki Haley. Sorry but I’d vote Trump over her.

See that’s not so hard.

Desantis isn’t running yet. So give me some names of people we know is running. Y’all run your mouths about trump but can’t name any republicans running.

quote:

---

The reality is that the democrats cheating BIGLY in 2020.

---

That's not the reason Trump lost. Over 5.5 million people voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but not Trump. The majority of these voters are suburban voters and Independents (who historically vote Republican). Trump alienated them and thus they split their tickets. That insane volume of ticket-splitting has not occurred since 1996, and that was only because Perot was a spoiler for Dole. Perot's supporters voted Republican down the ballot.

Approximately 90K people in Wisconsin voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but not Trump. In Arizona, approximately 76K. In Georgia, approximately 136K. In Michigan, approximately 215K. In Pennsylvania, approximately 175K.

That isn't anyone's fault besides Trump. He got complacent and didn't improve his message discipline to make the election a referendum on Biden and his fellow lockdown crack-pots. He alienated those voters. I watched an interview Ben Shapiro did with Frank Luntz. It was very interesting. Luntz spent time warning Trump and his people that there were many people who agreed with him on the issues but were sick and tired of his shite and they weren't going to vote for him. Trump and his team laughed at him and said it was fake news. Well, he was right. Hence the high volume of ticket-splitters.

It wasn't just in the states he lost that he underperformed, either. In Texas, John Cornyn received over 100K more votes than him in the 10 largest counties alone. In Florida there were over 380K people who voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but not him. In Ohio there were over 230K such voters.

quote:

---

Well all I was asking was who are the others to vote for and you give me a name that’s not running.

I’ll give you one I know of. Niki Haley. Sorry but I’d vote Trump over her.

See that’s not so hard.

Desantis isn’t running yet. So give me some names of people we know is running. Y’all run your mouths about trump but can’t name any republicans running.

---

I would take Vivek over Trump.


Also its March 2023. Traditionally most major candidates haven't ever declared by this point.

quote:

---

Most of the 2016 field hadn’t declared at this point either. Traditionally it’s the summer. Trump just did it way early to try to stake his claim to the nomination and scare off competition

---

But GumboPot and Obama-voter Jjdoc say every Republican needs to declare and have their entire platform articulated RIGHT NOW!!!!!!

quote:

---

If he loses in 2024 he won't have a chinaman's chance in hell in 2028.

---

I wish I shared your optimism. I don't see any chance he won't run again. He'll claim without evidence that 2024 was rigged and his legal team will once again lose every single court case. But it won't matter. Enough of the Republican base will remain behind him to give him a chance in 2028. His supporters will say that other candidates (specifically Ron DeSantis) will have their turn in 2032.

So reading your post, Im concluding that when Trump was the president nominee, that republicans by in large cost Trump the election?

So when DeSantis supporters (not all of them) talk about Trump supporters not supporting the nominee....looks like it's all talk. Is that a fair assessment?

To me that's the reason republicans can't win. Democrats vote D period. Republicans by in large have this moral high horse mentally and it cost the Republicans last election.

You win the primaries and sometimes the Iowa Caucus

Then you get less votes....over and over again

And when you listen to him you get non senators
Lake, Herschel and Dr Oz

Stand by a proven loser

quote:

---

So reading your post, Im concluding that when Trump was the president nominee, that republicans by in large cost Trump the election?

---

Republicans and Independents (who consistently vote Republican), particularly in the suburbs, absolutely cost Trump the election. They hate him and will never vote for him. Since they will never vote for him, the only way he can win based on his history is if he runs against the most hated Democratic candidate in history, causing liberals to vote for a spoiler candidate. This happened in 2016 with Jill Stein. She received over 130K votes in MI/PA/WI. Trump carried those states by a combined 78K votes. Had Jill Stein not been on the ballot, or had the Dems nominated anyone else, he would've lost those states and the election. Biden isn't hated by anywhere near the number of people that Hillary was. Dems worked overtime to restrict ballot access to Green Party candidates in the midwest swing states in 2020, so I don't see any realistic scenario where Trump wins.

quote:

---

So when DeSantis supporters (not all of them) talk about Trump supporters not supporting the nominee....looks like it's all talk. Is that a fair assessment?

---

This is definitely a real risk. DeSantis has nothing to worry about with the 5.5 million ticket-splitters in 2016 and 2020. Conservatively speaking, he'd probably get at least 2/3 of them back in the fold. The only way DeSantis loses is if Trump voters, particularly in the rural counties, stay home. He can still win without some of them because he'll bring back a good portion of those 5.5 million voters, but if a good number of Trump supporters stay home then things get dicey.

quote:

---

To me that's the reason republicans can't win. Democrats vote D period. Republicans by in large have this moral high horse mentally and it cost the Republicans last election.

---

Yep. Democrats play the team sport. They've learned from 2016 when Trump won because of Jill Stein voters and Bernie bros writing in Bernie in the swing states.

The problem with Trump is that those 5.5 million people are never voting for him. Additionally, Green Party candidates won't receive much traction in the swing states. So therefore I don't see any realistic scenario where he wins.

The only way DeSantis loses is if a lot of Trump supporters stay home. If a lot of them show up, DeSantis will not only win the Electoral College, but he will also win the Popular Vote.