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re: Oil approaching $60

Posted on 12/10/14 at 11:52 am to
Posted by Asgard Device
The Daedalus
Member since Apr 2011
11562 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 11:52 am to
Woohoo.

That's extra spending money for myself and millions of other Americans.
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
27613 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 11:52 am to
quote:

where is nancy Pelosi and her investigation of the collusion of big oil



I remember when that Leftist pig Maxine Waters let it slip out during a hearing several years ago that some of them are warm to the idea of nationalizing the oil & gas industry.
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
46282 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 11:54 am to
What is causing the price drop? Demand isn't dropping, supplies have been increasing, but that has been happening over the past couple of years. Is the price drop due to the commodities market or OPEC setting a low price?
Posted by La Place Mike
West Florida Republic
Member since Jan 2004
30920 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

Global economics is not my forte, is there a point at which the low price of oil could have a seriously negative impact on our economy?
If you mean by our economy, Louisiana's economy than yes.
Posted by La Place Mike
West Florida Republic
Member since Jan 2004
30920 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

Is the price drop due to the commodities market or OPEC setting a low price?
I noticed that as soon as ISIS started taking over oil fields prices started dropping. Coincidence? I don't really know. the first article I see about ISIS taking over oil fields was on July 3rd. the price of oil was around $104. a barrel. It has been steadily dropping ever since. It had been cruising a long at $100 TO $110 a barrel for most of the year.
This post was edited on 12/10/14 at 12:14 pm
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
40252 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

is there a point at which the low price of oil could have a seriously negative impact on our economy? Or would the low price have to be sustained for that to happen?


I paid $2.27 a gallon this morning.

I would think, if this is sustained, this may slightly, ever so slightly, help tip the scales back towards the poor and middle class. Oil prices effect them more than the wealthy, and the wealthy tend to be more invested (or work with) oil and gas.

Think of it this way. My wife and I probably burn 15 gallons a week of gas. Gas prices have dropped pretty much a buck. That's $15 dollars a week I'm saving on gas, which is $60 per month. Not a lot... but to a person on a very low wage, that can be considerable. That's additional spending that a family can use other places.

Add to that, if this sticks, electric prices may come down to the extend we have oil-fired electric generation, transportation costs come down which may result in price decreases in consumer goods, etc.

But make no mistake, there are winners and losers.
Posted by arcalades
USA
Member since Feb 2014
19276 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 12:12 pm to
quote:

Why isn't Big Oil conspiring to keep prices high???
Is OPEC "big oil"? they are trying to destroy their competition.
quote:

I don't think that the Arabs have been getting along as of lately.
By "lately," do you mean the last 4 thousand years?
Posted by DaBike
Member since Jan 2008
10435 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 12:28 pm to
quote:

Global economics is not my forte, is there a point at which the low price of oil could have a seriously negative impact on our economy? Or would the low price have to be sustained for that to happen? I travel by car for the holidays, so this is great news for me and may actually impact my holiday spending.


Already starting to happen. Drilling rigs are being laid down and job cuts already underway. Also companies are already cutting back on spending. More to come.
The negative impact may not be felt yet but it is just around the corner.
Posted by Damaged Goods
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2013
15 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 12:29 pm to
"Gas tax won't pass the HOR anyways"

Barry doesn't need congress, Barry has a Pen!!!
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
29473 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

I doubt that. All it takes is talk of a war in the Middle East for the price to jump back up and I don't think that the Arabs have been getting along as of lately. Oil will come back up in time.


I disagree. Obviously crude prices will have upward pressure as a result of middle east conflicts, but the effects of any outbreaks in the region have become increasingly muted due to North America becoming increasingly energy independent. From the recession until this Thanksgiving, WTI was range bound between $80 and $100. Plenty of stuff happened in or around OPEC countries over that time frame.
This post was edited on 12/10/14 at 12:35 pm
Posted by S.E.C. Crazy
Alabama
Member since Feb 2013
7905 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 12:35 pm to
I read 2 months ago that OPEC was trying to bankrupt the shale oil producers by making it unprofitable and thus sending them into bankruptcy.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 12:54 pm to
Good article in the Economist today about this (sorry cant link from phone)
Posted by idlewatcher
Planet Arium
Member since Jan 2012
92768 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 1:09 pm to
quote:


Global economics is not my forte, is there a point at which the low price of oil could have a seriously negative impact on our economy?


When it becomes cost prohibitive for the oil companies to cut back on drilling they will have to lay these people off. It's happening right now in Texas and just outside of OKC. Some say it's a Saudi squeeze for the US fracking industry.
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29024 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

I'll always wonder what effect the ramping-down of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve had on oil prices. I'm no expert, but I've been suspicious.


Ding Ding Ding this is the driver followed by global geopolitical issues.
Posted by PillageUrVillage
Mordor
Member since Mar 2011
15753 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 1:38 pm to
I work in the drilling side of the oil field. We are actually hiring and business hasn't slowed down. Now, I don't pretend to know the future. But that is what's going on where I work.
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
29473 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 1:40 pm to
That's a great point. No one is really talking about that, but that's going to have an adverse effect on both Brent and WTI.

There's a pretty obvious negative correlation between the dollar index and crude.
Posted by Stuckinthe90s
Dallas, TX
Member since Apr 2013
2780 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 1:43 pm to
This is a good thing for most of the US Economy (excluding Oil and Gas Companies) because it give more disposable income and can lower operating costs of other companies. It is also a huge win for the US globally as our O&G companies can be profitable at a much lower price for barrel of crude than the rest of the world. It will really hurt Russia which needs about an $80 a barrel of crude to stay profitable. Also Russia's economy is heavily dependent of exporting energy. It is also good because it will start to break up OPECs power as there is a surplus of oil on the market so they cannot artificial inflate the price.

However, this is not great for Louisiana as it will hurt the bigger Oil Companies and states that are dependent on Oil (Louisiana). Also there is an inflection point at about $50 dollars a barrel where we really would start hurting because the oil companies cannot turn a profit in the US, this means the surplus of oil will shrink, OPEC will regain power and can start setting prices points again.

I think I would personally like to see it stay around $75 dollars, it squeezes Russia out and put enough Pressure on OPEC to work with us and not just hang us out to dry.

Also, some also believe that US Anti-Fracking movement is being heavily funded be Russia in order bring the price back up.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
51335 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 1:53 pm to
The price drop is speculative right now. Expect it be very volatile for the time being. I don't think anyone thought the Saudi's uh i mean OPEC wouldn't cut production so the market is trying to figure out what the hell to do with this information.
Posted by Captain Rumbeard
Member since Jan 2014
6385 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 1:59 pm to
That's because the big producers are hedged at higher prices for another year or so. If this drags out half that long you'll be stacking rigs.

This is definitely a shot at the shale boom in the US as well as Iran and Russia in order to keep market share for the Saudis. They have a lot of reasons to do this.

With ISIS now becoming a serious threat to the region the Saudis need to make sure they are still important enough for us to come save them if they need it. If we become energy independent, we could tell them to kiss our asses and watch ISIS roll up and take Mecca and behead the royals. US energy independence is the death of them and they aren't going to allow it if they can help it.

They are concerned that Iran is about to have sanctions lifted or adjusted to allow them to sell more of their oil. The Russians are poised to do the same. Neither of those is good for the Saudis. They're doing a preemptive strike. They're also tired of all the other OPEC members not having to lower their production and it all landing on the Saudis every time there's an adjustment to be made.

The Saudis believe they can shut down Texas if they can keep the price low enough for long enough. Problem is that while the shale boom has been happening, we've been getting much more efficient at it. Fracking methods are cheaper because of the growth in the market and the methods used. The more we frac, the more we learn, the better we get at it, the cheaper it gets.

The big players know this and that's why you saw such huge buys last year like Encana buying into the Permian Basin to the tune of like $8 billion or so. They aren't going to just sit on that and wait forever. So while the Saudis will definitely be able to dirt nap the smaller players who need oil above $70 a barrel to keep drilling, they are a long ways out from putting a hurting on the bigger ones.

All while the Russians and the Iranians bond over hating the US and the Saudis who are making sure they stay under our umbrella of protection while they frick us.

Posted by TigerDog83
Member since Oct 2005
8748 posts
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

The price drop is speculative right now. Expect it be very volatile for the time being. I don't think anyone thought the Saudi's uh i mean OPEC wouldn't cut production so the market is trying to figure out what the hell to do with this information.


I think ultimately the Saudis are trying to avoid the mistakes of the 1980's when they cut and ultimately had to return production to a huge market glut to maintain revenues. Although the dynamics are a little different (sources of oil and economic price) the market essentially is oversupplied. The swing barrels appear to be US shale oil, which of course requires much higher prices than the conventional deposits in the middle east. By allowing the market to rebalance and not making cuts the Saudi's are attempting to let all producers take the pain and the highest cost oil will fall out first until we rebalance. Where speculation drives that is anybody's guess for the time being but declines are much steeper on the shale wells. More oil today globally comes from higher cost deposits like deepwater, shale wells, and oil sands than in the 1980's or 1990's.
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