re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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We started bombing them first. A drawn out war in the Middle East is fricking stupid, especially at the behest of Israel. Ever heard of sunk cost fallacy?

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Starting to think that we are currently witnessing the transition from Step 4 to Step 5 in Trump’s 7 Steps of Maximum Pressure.

Step 1. US has already “Asked for the Moon” (initial pre-conflict demands)

Step 2. “Whipped out the Big Button” (decapitated Iran leadership, destroyed Iran Navy,..)

Step 3. “Punch Someone in the Mouth” (Infrastructure Day)

Step 4. Break Bread, Make Friends ->

The ceasefire is the magnanimous gesture.

Trump went from “a whole civilization will die tonight” to “workable basis for negotiation” & “Golden Age of the Middle East” within a few hours.

He “accepted” Iran’s 10 point plan as a starting framework after calling it “not good enough” the day before.

He invited delegations to Islamabad.

Markets rallied & the world exhaled.

Now you sit down, you break bread, you behave generously & you make the other side believe the deal is real & imminent.

Which means that the walkaway (Step 5: Leave the Bride at the Altar) hasn’t happened yet.

The Islamabad talks on April 10 are the altar.

Vance, Witkoff, & Kushner fly in.

Pakistani mediators set the table.

Iran sends a delegation (probably led by Araghchi or Ghalibaf).

The optics will suggest momentum.

The world will believe a deal is forming.

Then, if Iran doesn’t concede to a favorable deal for the US..

Trump walks away.

If Iran’s version of “reopening” amounts to escorted convoys under IRGC coordination rather than unconditional free passage, Trump can declare the ceasefire condition unmet.

He goes back to Truth Social: “Iran has NOT opened the Strait. They are playing games. The deal is OFF.”

Oil spikes & markets panic again.

Iran, having already made concessions (accepting the ceasefire, sending a delegation, publicly engaging), is now in a worse position than before, because the world saw them come to the table & now fail.

The blame now rests on Iran, they are now the “unreasonable party” that is causing an economic calamity.

The external & internal pressure on Iran to concede will intensify dramatically.

That’s when we get to Step 6 (Kiss & Make Up).

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As a Pakistani diplomat who I happened to meet today, told me, "In essence, the United States can not conduct serious diplomacy; their arrogance and maximalist approach make it extremely difficult for them to show minimum care and flexibility for the interests and concerns of other nations."

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As an Iranian inside Iran, I cannot describe the wave of relief that hit me when I heard the ceasefire talks had failed.

I knew from the beginning this so called ceasefire would end like this. Still, these past few days sat on my chest like stone. I could think of nothing except the nightmare of this ending with the terrorist Islamic Regime occupying Iran still standing over us, after everything we have endured, after all the dead, after all the blood, after all the years stolen from us.

The moment I saw JD Vance say no agreement had been reached, it felt like breath returning to my lungs.

Once again the terrorist Islamic Regime occupying Iran proved what it is. Terror is not a tactic for them. It is in their marrow. You cannot soften it with promises or frighten it into decency with pressure alone. The carrot changes nothing. The stick changes nothing. Its nature remains the same.

The only road back to peace in the Middle East runs through the end of this occupation over Iran.

Level the field. Let the Iranian people finish what history has already begun.

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