re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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Trump is doing something as we speak. Trump is maintaining the blockade and financial strangulation as the regime implodes. And our military answers the IRGC tit for tat while the strategy works.

This has gone on long enough that everyone should understand the strategy.

This strategy requires time and patience to work.

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From Al Jazeera this morning. It is a pretty long story. Here is the link:

How the US naval blockade has bled Iran of nearly $6bn in oil revenues

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Iran’s crude oil exports fell to their lowest level in at least six years in May, as a United States naval blockade squeezes Tehran’s most important source of income amid a fragile ceasefire between the two nations.

The blockade on Iran’s ports, which Washington commenced on April 13, is part of President Donald Trump’s effort to pressure Iran to agree to its terms for a peace deal. Tehran has condemned the move as illegal and described the US seizure of ships around its ports as an act of “piracy”.

The US action came after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to ships from most countries following the start of US-Israeli attacks on February 28. The narrow waterway is the Gulf’s main route to the open ocean and normally carries about 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

The disruption sent global energy prices soaring and severely curtailed exports from chief Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.

During that period, however, Iran was largely able to continue exporting its own oil. With fewer competitors able to move cargoes through the strait, Iranian exports remained strong through March and some of April, while higher oil prices boosted revenues.

New data now shows that has changed since the US began its naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz account for about 80 percent of total Iranian exports. The latest shipping data suggests the blockade has sharply reduced the amount of crude Iran can sell abroad, particularly to China, its largest customer.

Analysts say the blockade is now beginning to inflict a high financial cost on the Iranian economy, raising questions about how long Iran can sustain the war.

How have Iranian oil exports been affected by the US blockade?

According to data from trade intelligence firm Kpler, Iranian crude oil and condensate exports fell from close to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) to below 300,000bpd in May. Kpler used figures for the 40 days before the blockade began for comparison.

The collapse comes despite Iran initially benefitting from the disruption it caused in the Strait of Hormuz. After Tehran closed the strategic waterway following the outbreak of war, global oil and gas prices surged. Iran continued to export its own oil through the strait, while restrictions on other Gulf producers helped push prices higher.

Before the blockade, Iranian exports were relatively strong through March and much of April – and benefitted from the surge in the oil price caused by the closure of the Strait of Homuz to all other shipping.

Iranian crude grades have generally traded above $90 a barrel and have occasionally exceeded $100.

Using a conservative price estimate of $90 a barrel, exports of 300,000bpd would generate about $27m in revenue each day, or roughly $837m over the course of May.

That is a sharp drop from earlier in the year. In March, when exports averaged 1.84 million bpd, Iran was earning an estimated $165.6m a day, or about $5.13bn over the month.

In April, exports averaged 1.34 million bpd, generating about $120.6m a day, or roughly $3.62bn during the month.

The figures suggest Iran’s oil revenues in May were approximately 84 percent lower than they were in March, according to Lloyd’s List, which offers a glimpse into the growing economic impact of the blockade.

And if Iran expected monthly revenues on the scale of its March returns, it has lost $5.8bn over April and May.

Kpler told Al Jazeera that while the data shows the blockade has sharply reduced the amount of new oil leaving Iran, it may not capture all the Iranian oil reaching buyers, because some cargoes are being transferred between vessels near Malaysia after leaving Iranian waters.

Is Iran still producing oil?

For now, yes. However, Tehran is increasingly being forced to store the crude that it cannot sell.

Marc Ayoub, an energy policy researcher and consultant, told Al Jazeera that “Iran is strategically using the storage capacity it has left. The data shows the blockade is working, but the real pressure comes once that storage starts running out.”

Much of that storage is floating on tankers at sea. According to Kpler, about 147 million barrels of Iranian crude and condensate are currently being held in floating storage. Of that total, roughly 67 million barrels are stranded inside the Gulf and Gulf of Oman, unable to move beyond the US blockade line.

Iran has increasingly relied on oil tankers as temporary storage facilities, loading crude onto vessels and leaving them anchored offshore while it searches for ways to move cargoes to buyers.

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More info here.

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I guess Iran sees the cease fire as more of a suggestion than we do

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Iran wants the US to break the ceasefire, that’s what they are trying to get us to do.

For Trump this is Atlanta 1864.

Pakistan, still trying to make itself important:

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Or we could just forcefully reopen the strait. It’ll cost us some lives but that’s what happens in a war.

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Iran wants the US to break the ceasefire, that’s what they are trying to get us to do.

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That's probably an intermediate goal. What they really want, my guess, is to give their allies in the US Congress some leverage to end the blockade.

my family does volunteer and serve. You do you.

I am older now but some grand nephews and niece are in the Air Force now.


Have a day

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You really got to believe that Iran nuking US soil is credible (it isn't in my opinion) to make that price worth it.

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All you have to believe is that Iran's constant threats to close the strait of Hormuz were credible and achievable, which they clearly were. Iran has wielded that threat for decades, as they built and supported militia throughout the Middle East and even branching out to another distant oil rich region, Venezuela. During that time they've been continually building their conventional forces, with assistance from China, to a position nearing regional dominance. At first, China directly supplied Iran with weapons and technology. Later they switched to supplying "dual use" technologies and materials as a way of getting around sanctions against Iran. There are good indications that Iran now has access to China's satellite system for targeting purposes.

It would require a credulous person to suggest that Iran's goals in the ME and South America are benign (already provably false), particularly when it became clear that they were on the verge of acquiring enough fissile material for a substantial nuclear arsenal, something never done by a non-nuclear power. This is not a Trump assertion, it's universally acknowledged. There has never been adequate supervision to monitor their progress toward nuclear weapons, including under the JCPOA. They've made it abundantly clear that they have no intention of stopping that effort, including development of long range missiles. Once they have nuclear weapons, before or after they develop long range missiles, the options for deterring their aggressive posture in both hemispheres become draconian. Despite suggestions to the contrary, at this time last year they were close to achieving that goal. China did it from that position in under two months, 60 years ago. Soon the price of opposing Iran's agression would've been deemed unbearable, which is their goal. The fact that they still have the support of China makes them an undeniable global threat and motive is not hard to ascertain.

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Will Trump fire back? Nope. The blockade is having an effect because Iran continues to fire at its neighbors.

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So the question becomes, which side in this conflict gains advantage from the current status quo? Is it the side with significant industrial damage, trying to dig out and rebuild while suffering from a blockade and extreme inflation, or the side still fully intact and able to re-arm and re-align strategy while dealing with a much lower, albeit higher than prewar, level of inflation?

I'm not minimizing the US cost of this war; it's substantial. I also believe that, due to debt, our economy is more fragile than most believe; prone to high inflation with or without fighting wars. But it's possible we're the ones gaining advantage during this ceasefire, Iran's occasional missile tantrum notwithstanding. The folks insisting otherwise haven't provided enough evidence to make their case, IMO.