re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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I guess Iran sees the cease fire as more of a suggestion than we do

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Iran wants the US to break the ceasefire, that’s what they are trying to get us to do.

For Trump this is Atlanta 1864.

Pakistan, still trying to make itself important:

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How the US naval blockade has bled Iran of nearly $6bn in oil revenues

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This is great and all but I think it is fair to state that this is also coming at a cost to the US domestic economy too. What is that number? It seems to be making another rate hike from the Fed a possibility.

Between the AI speculative bubble reaching its end stage where it folds in construction and hardware production [to build datacenters to nowhere like fiber buildouts in the dotcom boom] to keep the bubble coherent for another 6-12 months and this war, we're seeing inflation exploding again and setting up for the possibility of a recession.

You really got to believe that Iran nuking US soil is credible (it isn't in my opinion) to make that price worth it.

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It’ll cost us some lives but that’s what happens in a war.

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You volunteer to lead first or maybe one of your children.

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Iran wants the US to break the ceasefire, that’s what they are trying to get us to do.

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That's probably an intermediate goal. What they really want, my guess, is to give their allies in the US Congress some leverage to end the blockade.

my family does volunteer and serve. You do you.

I am older now but some grand nephews and niece are in the Air Force now.


Have a day

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You really got to believe that Iran nuking US soil is credible (it isn't in my opinion) to make that price worth it.

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All you have to believe is that Iran's constant threats to close the strait of Hormuz were credible and achievable, which they clearly were. Iran has wielded that threat for decades, as they built and supported militia throughout the Middle East and even branching out to another distant oil rich region, Venezuela. During that time they've been continually building their conventional forces, with assistance from China, to a position nearing regional dominance. At first, China directly supplied Iran with weapons and technology. Later they switched to supplying "dual use" technologies and materials as a way of getting around sanctions against Iran. There are good indications that Iran now has access to China's satellite system for targeting purposes.

It would require a credulous person to suggest that Iran's goals in the ME and South America are benign (already provably false), particularly when it became clear that they were on the verge of acquiring enough fissile material for a substantial nuclear arsenal, something never done by a non-nuclear power. This is not a Trump assertion, it's universally acknowledged. There has never been adequate supervision to monitor their progress toward nuclear weapons, including under the JCPOA. They've made it abundantly clear that they have no intention of stopping that effort, including development of long range missiles. Once they have nuclear weapons, before or after they develop long range missiles, the options for deterring their aggressive posture in both hemispheres become draconian. Despite suggestions to the contrary, at this time last year they were close to achieving that goal. China did it from that position in under two months, 60 years ago. Soon the price of opposing Iran's agression would've been deemed unbearable, which is their goal. The fact that they still have the support of China makes them an undeniable global threat and motive is not hard to ascertain.

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Will Trump fire back? Nope. The blockade is having an effect because Iran continues to fire at its neighbors.

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So the question becomes, which side in this conflict gains advantage from the current status quo? Is it the side with significant industrial damage, trying to dig out and rebuild while suffering from a blockade and extreme inflation, or the side still fully intact and able to re-arm and re-align strategy while dealing with a much lower, albeit higher than prewar, level of inflation?

I'm not minimizing the US cost of this war; it's substantial. I also believe that, due to debt, our economy is more fragile than most believe; prone to high inflation with or without fighting wars. But it's possible we're the ones gaining advantage during this ceasefire, Iran's occasional missile tantrum notwithstanding. The folks insisting otherwise haven't provided enough evidence to make their case, IMO.

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The question is how to protect it from drones.

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Our military has been talking about lasers for a long time now. I'm not an expert, but it seems like they'd be useful for that, if they work.