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Started By
Message
Not Only Can Trump Win, Right Now He's the Favorite To Win the Presidency
Posted on 11/28/23 at 5:41 pm
Posted on 11/28/23 at 5:41 pm
His support is being deliberately low-balled by the media. 
As he has made all of the GOPe "candidates" irrelevant ("who's gonna be #2?"), you can bet that he's putting some polling distance between himself and the Obama surrogate who lives in the WH.
Real Clear Politics
As he has made all of the GOPe "candidates" irrelevant ("who's gonna be #2?"), you can bet that he's putting some polling distance between himself and the Obama surrogate who lives in the WH.
Real Clear Politics
quote:
As the saying goes, actions speak louder than words. Elections analysts seem to know that they are obliged to mouth the words that Trump can win, but deep down, they don’t believe them. The notion that Biden is the favorite is deeply internalized, likely for a variety of reasons.
So let us set the record straight: Trump can win.Not in a “maybe if all the stars align and then Russia changes the vote totals (even somehow in states like Michigan that use hand-marked paper ballots)” kind of way.Just flat out: Trump can win.
quote:
As of this writing, Trump leads Biden by 2.6 percentage points nationally in the RealClearPolitics Average. This is Trump’s largest lead in the RCP average to date. Not for 2024, mind you. Ever.
quote:
In 2020, Trump never led Biden in the national RCP Average. He briefly closed to within four points in early January of 2020, but that is it. He led in five polls all cycle.
So, counting the L.A. Times tracker as a single poll, Trump led in a total of 24 national polls. This cycle? He’s led in that many since mid-September. [/b]He’s led in more polls in the past three weeks than he did against Biden in all of 2019-2020.[/b]
quote:
What does the state polling show today? Trump leads in the RCP Average in Michigan for the first time, ever.
Pennsylvania? He leads for the first time ever, and has led in most polls.
He narrowly trails Biden in Wisconsin but has already led in almost as many polls as he led in the state in 2016 and 2020 combined. His 0.7% deficit compares to his previous best showing in the state: A 3.5% deficit in August of 2020.
Florida? Trump has led or tied in every poll, including some double-digit leads.
Arizona? He leads by five in the RCP Average.
Georgia? He leads by six.
Ohio? Polling is sparse, but he leads by 10.
quote:
In other words, analyzing this election correctly isn’t just a matter of giving lip service to the notion that Trump can win this election. The correct position right now is that Trump is better positioned in the polls to win this election than any GOP nominee since at least 2004.
quote:
These all make for fun speculation and are useful reminders that if a week is a lifetime in politics, then a year is, well, a very, very long time. Analysts should, of course, feel free to indulge in gaming out the possibilities.
But when the conversation returns to what we do know, there honestly is only one correct answer: Trump can win this election, and is well-positioned to do so.
13
Posted on 11/28/23 at 5:53 pm to Perfect Circle
His support has been deliberately low-balled forever. It doesn't matter how much support he has when they can rig the election to get the outcome they desire.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 5:57 pm to Perfect Circle
Op, why do you think anything will be different than 2020?
Posted on 11/28/23 at 5:57 pm to BuzzSaw 12
Stalin addressed this, it’s who counts the votes…..
Posted on 11/28/23 at 5:57 pm to Perfect Circle
but but but I was told he was 100% GOING TO JAIL THIS TIME!!
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:01 pm to Perfect Circle
If you believe that those polls, many by Trump and many others by Dems, showing him winning a year out mean anything I honestly feel sorry for you. First off if they really think Biden will lose they will replace him and they likely will anyway. If that happens Trump is fricked. The amount of ammo the Dems can use on him if you replace Biden with a younger and well spoken candidate like Newsom or Granholm is limitless.
There are a LOT of folks with a vested interest in Trump being the nominee but most of them either don't want him to win the General or aren't really impacted if he loses. Lots of Republicans like being in the minority, it's a much easier way to grift because no one expects you to do anything.
I'll vote for Trump is he is the nominee but he likely loses Goldwater style. It staggers me how people are blind to that.
There are a LOT of folks with a vested interest in Trump being the nominee but most of them either don't want him to win the General or aren't really impacted if he loses. Lots of Republicans like being in the minority, it's a much easier way to grift because no one expects you to do anything.
I'll vote for Trump is he is the nominee but he likely loses Goldwater style. It staggers me how people are blind to that.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:04 pm to Perfect Circle
He won last election by a landslide.
He will win this election by a landslide
One of the liberals will be the next president though so there’s that
He will win this election by a landslide
One of the liberals will be the next president though so there’s that
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:04 pm to aggressor
quote:
First off if they really think Biden will lose they will replace him and they likely will anyway. If that happens Trump is fricked. The amount of ammo the Dems can use on him if you replace Biden with a younger and well spoken candidate like Newsom or Granholm is limitless.
I’m banking on Ron taking Gavin out at the kneecaps Thursday.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:05 pm to 756
quote:
Op, why do you think anything will be different than 2020?
Guess you missed this part:
quote:
In 2020, Trump never led Biden in the national RCP Average. He briefly closed to within four points in early January of 2020, but that is it. He led in five polls all cycle.
Polling data is significantly more favorable Trump right now than at any point in 2020
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:09 pm to Powerman
It's a year from the election and the polls are beyond meaningless at this point. It's insanely easy to cook up samples to say whatever you want because there is zero accountability for them. They could sway 80 points by next year and a poll right now has nothing to worry about in terms of being called out.
Most polls now are used for propaganda not hard data. You would think people would have learned that by now.
Most polls now are used for propaganda not hard data. You would think people would have learned that by now.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:10 pm to aggressor
quote:
aggressor
You should log off for a while
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:11 pm to aggressor
quote:
It's a year from the election and the polls are beyond meaningless at this point.
sure, they can't guarantee the future, but we can enjoy the trend
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:11 pm to 756
quote:
why do you think anything will be different than 2020?
This
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:13 pm to BuzzSaw 12
quote:
His support has been deliberately low-balled forever. It doesn't matter how much support he has when they can rig the election to get the outcome they desire.
This is against Biden. Biden will not run. Sociopath Newsom will be the guy, at the very best it’s going to be close enough in swing states for Dems to play the system and get a few extra votes. They have a huge advantage by living in smaller, more dense areas. Republicans can’t just go door to door in rural areas as easily.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:18 pm to Perfect Circle
But never underestimate the power of hooliganism, 'riots,' utter chaos and destruction, all desperate (and sadly effective) tools of communist and reactionary infiltrators. After all, isn't that what happened during the last time this country was the world leader?
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:24 pm to aggressor
Hahaha amazing how after that first debate you grabbed onto a couple polls that showed a slight Desantis bump and exclaimed The surge is coming! now all polls are fake. Lol
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:28 pm to Perfect Circle
quote:
Not Only Can Trump Win, Right Now He's the Favorite To Win the Presidency
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:39 pm to Perfect Circle
To buy in to this line of thinking you have to believe first that the 2020 election was legitimate.
I don't believe that for a second.
Polling is highly inaccurate also, but if you believe the trend is more positive to Trump after the Biden shitshow, that wouldn't surprise me.
Trump won 2016, Trump won 2020, and he is poised to win 2024 if we have a free and fair election.
I don't believe that for a second.
Polling is highly inaccurate also, but if you believe the trend is more positive to Trump after the Biden shitshow, that wouldn't surprise me.
Trump won 2016, Trump won 2020, and he is poised to win 2024 if we have a free and fair election.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:50 pm to aggressor
quote:
If you believe that those polls, many by Trump and many others by Dems, showing him winning a year out mean anything I honestly feel sorry for you.
Polls aren’t worthless. They are kind of like online reviews. Just one piece of information to base your opinion on.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:04 pm to Perfect Circle
quote:
As he has made all of the GOPe "candidates" irrelevant ("who's gonna be #2?")
If I were the GOPe or their candidates I would suggest they all go take a nice vacation. Love him or hate him, DJT has this one in the bag. Someone needs to make nice and be the VP and then let's move on.
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