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re: Non partisan topic - any real economic plan by anyone that addresses AI displacement?
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:07 am to anchor_down
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:07 am to anchor_down
quote:
But let’s talk about just 50% reduction for now. If 1 employee can do the job of 2, what do you think the decision becomes for an entity interested in reducing labor spend?
To play devil's advocate, yes many companies will just keep the status quo & cut some jobs. We already see that in terms of H1Bs and offshoring. But we also typically see a drop in quality.
Now that will fly better in some industries, some regulatory environments etc. And maybe with AI, you could maintain the same standards at half the employment. But there are other industries that are likely to use AI to augment productivity, keep the same # of employees, and just do things at a much higher standard.
So many companies run on lean staffing models already that there is usually plenty of work to do or work that doesn't get done because "we're too busy." By introducing AI, you free up people's time and let them tackle more of what's getting put off today. And suddenly the guys that cut half their staff and kept the same quality are falling behind everyone who improved their quality.
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Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:08 am to Powerman
i work in the sox compliance/audit world and i 100% expect to be displaced by AI at some point 
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:14 am to AaronDeTiger
quote:I could see that as a possible solution for gen 1 of all of this but what happens when that plays out and there is no "Sarah" to replace. The next Sarah doesn't even get a chance at employment. I honestly don't know how AI will evolve and when certain jobs can be done with evolving AI. However, I could see extremely high unemployment for my granddaughters' generation. Technology to me is both good and bad. But some sinister types could really do some damage with AI and its mission being nefarious at best.
Scenario:
Sarah, a warehouse worker earning $40,000/year, faces job loss due to an AI robot that saves her employer $30,000 annually. Under Eric Weinstein’s Coasian rights framework, Sarah holds a tradable "job right," forcing the company to negotiate with her before automating her role.
Bargaining Process:
The company offers Sarah $20,000 to relinquish her right. She counters with $50,000 for a year’s salary and retraining. After back-and-forth, they settle on $35,000, including health insurance, allowing the company to automate.
Possible Outcomes:
1. Buyout Agreement: Sarah accepts $35,000, leaves, and retrains for a $38,000/year job. The company nets $5,000 in savings after the payout.
2. Partial Automation with Retraining: Sarah stays part-time at $20,000/year, gets $15,000 for retraining, and assists with robots. The company saves $5,000 versus her full salary.
3. Sarah Sells Her Right: Sarah sells her job right to a third party for $40,000. The buyer negotiates $45,000 from the company, profiting $5,000. The company automates after paying.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:15 am to Powerman
quote:
Non partisan topic - any real economic plan by anyone that addresses AI displacement?
Why does there need to be a government plan for this? Let the market figure it out.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:28 am to GumboPot
Not surprisingly there are current AI tools like Originality, Neural Writer, Prompt Perfect, expertex and Quartize that help you create prompts from plain language. You take the prompt it generates and drop it into whatever AI platform you're using. They are very helpful.
Roles like Lawyers and Developers, or really anything research based is going to have a tough go of it in the near future. I've already been using AI tools to write contracts that would typically need to go through an attorney. I've actually caught loopholes and mistakes from attorneys using AI to analyze contracts.
Roles like Lawyers and Developers, or really anything research based is going to have a tough go of it in the near future. I've already been using AI tools to write contracts that would typically need to go through an attorney. I've actually caught loopholes and mistakes from attorneys using AI to analyze contracts.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:29 am to anchor_down
quote:
To be precise, “accounting” was a stand-in phrase that I should have really thought for more than 2 minutes about before using it. I was fishing for a better way to describe “desk jockey” and didn’t want to use the term “accountant”.
What I really meant was “analyst,” which could be an accountant, a medical billing coder, a supply chain middle manager, etc…
Gotcha. That is more fair.
Hell the accounting profession has run "lean" my entire 13 year career...we are always trying to automate as much of the "grunt work" as we can.
We keep getting more and more work however. Another counterpoint is the accounting profession is very old and grey.
There will be opportunities for younger folks to be successful as there is always a need for good financial information and data and for a person(s) on the team who can understand the data and help the business make decisions.
quote:
Job replacement won’t be 100%, I strongly doubt that. Hell, 90% reduction across the board is pretty extreme too - I use the 1:10 analogy because we are using that figure in two current project estimates.
This has been happening in accounting for time immemorial.
What happens when your "AI accountant" fricks up and there is another Enron or WorldCom?
Who is responsible for the AI? Who gets sued or is held liable?
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:30 am to Ostrich
quote:Plenty of folks still waiting for the market to figure out their offshore outsourced jobs. This is outsourcing on a greater scale.
Why does there need to be a government plan for this? Let the market figure it out.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:34 am to jclem11
quote:The company I work for has both a Responsible AI team (think HR for [AI solutions instead] of [people]) and an AI Risk team (fleet of lawyers).
What happens when your "AI accountant" fricks up and there is another Enron or WorldCom? Who is responsible for the AI? Who gets sued or is held liable?
I’m sure they have better answers than me, but it is being addressed. More stringent government regulations for AI use might be a viable answer to stemming some of the job replacement.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:37 am to Powerman
quote:
Having no contingency plans in place is irresponsible and stupid
You say this as if what potential contingency plans should be are apparent. If this threads proves anything it's that no such thing is the case. I'm a big fan of plans. But I'm not a big fan of plans just to be able to say you have a plan. It is perfectly possible for a bad plan to be worse than no plan at all
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:39 am to Powerman
quote:
Difference with those examples is the speed and scale appear to be different this time
This is always the response people give but you're missing the fact that that's actually a double-edged reality. Not only is the speed at which it will occur faster but the speed with which the economy will respond is likely to be faster for exactly the same reasons.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 9:45 am to The Egg
quote:
i work in the sox compliance/audit world and i 100% expect to be displaced by AI at some point
Again, I don't see this happening. Someone still needs to verify everything AI spits out because you never know if it's making things up or not. Also, someone needs to input the prompts. We won't have AI managing AI submitting reports to AI.
AI lacks judgment and discretion. It lacks ethics. It's not innovative or adaptable. It cannot collaborate with other AI.
AI is a tool, not a solution.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 10:03 am to anchor_down
quote:
The company I work for has both a Responsible AI team (think HR for [AI solutions instead] of [people]) and an AI Risk team (fleet of lawyers).
I’m sure they have better answers than me, but it is being addressed. More stringent government regulations for AI use might be a viable answer to stemming some of the job replacement.
Let's take AI to it's logical extreme: what happens to us plebs in a hypothetical all jobs are eliminated scenario?
To me that is just a recipe for a dystopian hellscape of either mass unrest and chaos or death camps for the "undesirable" or "no longer needed".
The whole AI revolution is headed down a very very dark path and I have extreme distrust for those in charge and at the top of all this as they have nefarious intentions imo.
This post was edited on 5/27/25 at 10:05 am
Posted on 5/27/25 at 10:05 am to jclem11
quote:
My biggest question with all the AI stuff is simple: what happens to us plebs in a hypothetical all jobs are eliminated scenario?
hopefully a large scale revolution.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 10:07 am to 4cubbies
quote:And maybe that's true but reducing that department from 10 to 2 (2 doing the things you mention) is still displacement for the other 8.
Again, I don't see this happening. Someone still needs to verify everything AI spits out because you never know if it's making things up or not. Also, someone needs to input the prompts. We won't have AI managing AI submitting reports to AI.
AI lacks judgment and discretion. It lacks ethics. It's not innovative or adaptable. It cannot collaborate with other AI.
AI is a tool, not a solution.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 10:07 am to 4cubbies
We will get a gubment stipend (taxes paid by companies for worker displacement) and all be gig workers.
Govt will be a technocratic socialist jumble where opportunity is stripped from the lower classes.
Govt will be a technocratic socialist jumble where opportunity is stripped from the lower classes.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 10:07 am to Powerman
quote:
I'd have to imagine 5 to 10 years from now a ton of jobs will be replaced by AI. Companies still consumers and those consumers need an income to consume. I suspect a lot of middle and upper middle class white collar jobs will be the first on the chopping block until robotics catches up to replace blue collar trades.
This won't replace jobs taken over by AI but starting an Optimus repair shop should be a great business.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 10:10 am to Powerman
Do you think AI and robots will replace the farmer, the pipeline welder, the mechanic, the plumber, the electrician, the brick layer, etc.?
Posted on 5/27/25 at 10:12 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
We will get a gubment stipend (taxes paid by companies for worker displacement) and all be gig workers.
not happening. the government would let us all starve before helping most of its citizens. the population would likely vote against anything like this, anyway.
the government needs us to be busy working 40+ hours a week so we don't organize and rise up against it.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 10:13 am to 4cubbies
quote:
not happening. the government would let us all starve before helping most of its citizens.
If you starve, its on you.
I'm going to eat well, regardless. You could too, if you didnt prefer constant victimhood.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 10:14 am to RogerTheShrubber
I hope your day improves, bud 
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