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New Democrat internal poll shows Paxton leading Talarico.

Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:19 pm
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
44041 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:19 pm


quote:

TX-09 POLL (Dem internal)

?? Alex Mealer: 45%
?? Leticia Gutierrez: 39%
——
Senate
?? Ken Paxton: 48%
?? James Talarico: 47%

Governor
?? Greg Abbott (i): 48%
?? Gina Hinojosa: 46%

@ppppolls | 9/18-19 | Trump +20 district
Posted by FATBOY TIGER
Valhalla
Member since Jan 2016
14191 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:25 pm to
OWLSHIT69 will be along shortly to question the polling.
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6-- the Brazos River Valley
Member since Sep 2015
33226 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:39 pm to
If that's reliable polling, then that's a dire sign for Ken Paxton.

Texas-09 represents a district (mostly in Northern Brazoria County, Northern Galveston County and far Southeastern Harris County) --- a very conservative and Republican district. Trump won it by 20 points in 2024. If he's only leading by 1 in what should be a slam-dunk regional race, then he's getting shellacked statewide.
Posted by RohanGonzales
Pronoun: Whatever
Member since Apr 2024
13336 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

tarzana


Keep hope alive!
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
49226 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

If that's reliable polling, then that's a dire sign for Ken Paxton.


Dire?

Paxton has been behind in nearly all polling until now.
Posted by davyjones
NELA
Member since Feb 2019
37786 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:42 pm to
Guaranteed as things stand today, there are some amongst us who scoff at the idea that Trump has any realistic shot at winning the 2024 Presidential election.
Posted by Onyx Aggie
Foothills of the Smokies
Member since Sep 2012
3216 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

If that's reliable polling,
quote:

New Democrat internal poll
It's not
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6-- the Brazos River Valley
Member since Sep 2015
33226 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:50 pm to
Look at those numbers in TX-09 carefully, and make a more informed conclusion as to what they mean. TX-09 is one of the most Republican districts in the Greater Houston area; Trump carried the district by 20 points in '24! The fact that Paxton leads by just 1 in the district looks like curtains for a statewide campaign. Abbott is in serious trouble as well.
Posted by davyjones
NELA
Member since Feb 2019
37786 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:52 pm to
Why would I do that? That’s not what I was referring to.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
68885 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

New Democrat internal poll shows Paxton leading Talarico


Any poll showing Talarico winning is simply false.
Posted by Adam Banks
District 5
Member since Sep 2009
39466 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:53 pm to
Trump +20 district.



Awful poll for Rs
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
44041 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:54 pm to
quote:

TX-09 is one of the most Republican districts in the Greater Houston area;


You just owned yourself.

That means that younger voters and independents are gravitating towards Paxton.
Staunch GOP were never going to vote for Freakboy.
Posted by NawlinsTiger9
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
40830 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:56 pm to
quote:

Trump +20 district


Posted by TigerIron
Member since Feb 2021
4165 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 7:57 pm to
quote:

Dire?

Paxton has been behind in nearly all polling until now.


It's a poll in one congressional district. That district was Trump +20 in 2024. Paxton is up by one. I literally cannot understand how people could say, or claim to believe, that is a good sign for Paxton. The "tarzana" poster is generally full of shite but seriously what is the take that this is a good sign for Paxton? Even worse, presumably it's being pushed because it's one of the only polls to be found that has Paxton ahead at all.

If you want to fall back on "all polls are fake," fine, but if you are pushing this poll to show something what it shows is Paxton is in trouble.
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
44041 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

It's a poll in one congressional district. That district was Trump +20 in 2024. Paxton is up by one. I literally cannot understand how people could say, or claim to believe, that is a good sign for Paxton.


Because we were told by everyone that Trump won only because women, young voters, Hispanics and independents voted for him.

Then they said he lost all of them.

What is TX 09’s demographics?
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6-- the Brazos River Valley
Member since Sep 2015
33226 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 8:05 pm to
You apparently don't get it. And I was about ready to praise you for posting that poll.

I don't know who Alex Mealer is but he's doing well in his house race. Paxton and Abbott are in poor shape statewide to be within the "Marge Innovera" in what should be a gimme putt.
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
44041 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 8:06 pm to
See my post above yours.
Posted by NawlinsTiger9
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
40830 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 8:06 pm to
quote:

What is TX 09’s demographics?


Trump +20 in the last election

This poll has it Paxton +1

I need you to acknowledge that you understand those two facts.
Posted by mwade91383
Washington DC
Member since Mar 2010
8053 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 8:07 pm to
Jsut wanna say if any of you are really that confident Paxton wins you can get 2.5x on your money right now on Kalshi. Monster payout available.

Something tells me none of you will but….
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
42738 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 8:10 pm to
Oh we are believing polls again?
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