re: New ABC/ Wash Post poll. Biden 54-45 Pennsylvania

lol we all know this is complete bullshite

Actually in the 2016 Pennsylvania exit poll 53% were female. 59% were college grads or had some college. Trump won every education level in Pennsylvania except post graduate. Those Master and PhD liberals loved them some Hillary.

The poll is counting the ballots they are filling out and turning in.

My theory on all these polls:

Whitey is afraid to say he/she is voting Trump, especially now with all the BLM stuff they're seeing.

So the whites answering these polls are more likely to be Biden people.

Meanwhile, Hispanics & blacks are less afraid, so the polls are showing Trump's real gains with them.

For reference: Trump won PA whites by 16 in 2016. He's up with whites by just 4 in this poll.

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Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls. Gary Johnson has 5 percent support, Jill Stein 2 percent.

...even in states like Virginia and Pennsylvania that polls show are now trending Clinton's way.

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ABC News Poll - October 23, 2016

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The Philly suburbs went overwhelmingly for Clinton in 2016. It may not have been 66-33, but it wasn’t enough to explain a 10 pt Biden lead. Not even close.

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It was 59-37.

This poll is complete BS. There there a plenty of people in the Philly burbs that are keeping their mouth shut, and are planning to vote for Trump. The polls aren’t capturing any of this.

Another data point re voting in PA. I’ve spoken to a number of people, and every Trump supporter I’ve spoken with is going to vote in person, they’re not leaving this in someone else’s hands. This is consistent with the response Martha MacCallum got from the female voters from Ohio on her show last night.

I've posted this before but there is no historical precedent for incumbent President's losing a state they previously won by the substantial margins these polls are forecasting.

In fact incumbent Presidents rarely lose a state they won and they usually increase their margin of victory in those states. But a narrow victory followed by a narrow loss is at least plausible under historical modeling.

But double digit swings just don't happen. There's really only one that stands out and that was Obama barely winning Indiana in 2008 (a huge upset which nobody expected at all) and then losing Indiana big in 2012 (which was a return to the norm). Jimmy Carter saw some major flips in the South in 1980, but that had more to do with ideological realignment.

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In fact incumbent Presidents rarely lose a state they won and they usually increase their margin of victory in those states. But a narrow victory followed by a narrow loss is at least plausible under historical modeling.

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This is why asking the "Who did you vote for in 2016" question is so vital

I give that example I gave from a past Pennsylvania poll where Biden was up 53-41 in the poll but Trump won 41-36 on who did you vote for in 2016.

So Trump's support from 2016 to 2020 was unchanged, at 41 in both.

But Biden was able to add 17 points onto Clinton's 2016 number with all 17 points of that gain being without any of Trump's support?

So basically what that poll wants us to believe is that there was a 17 point swing fueled 100% by voters who didn't vote in 2016 all saying they were voting Biden?

There is NO WAY an 8 point swing, let alone a 17 point swing, can happen without a candidate losing support. They want us to believe Trump went from being up 5 to down 12 despite losing no support? No way in hell.