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Nate Silver is out with his 2022 midterm election projections
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:30 pm
quote:
Our forecast is out! Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House, but the Senate is a toss-up.
LINK
14
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:31 pm to Street Hawk
put no faith in any poll, model, word from your uncle's buddy's roomates cousin who worked in the clinton white house at this point
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:32 pm to Street Hawk
I'll take 59 Senate seats
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:34 pm to Street Hawk
I feel like the Rs win the Senate, and likely 53-47, but that is only a gut feeling, not based on any polls or models. It just so happens to basically match his projection.
I give Rs 99% chance to win back the house.
I give Rs 99% chance to win back the house.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:55 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
I feel like the Rs win the Senate, and likely 53-47, but that is only a gut feeling, not based on any polls or models. It just so happens to basically match his projection.
Why do you say this? Did you go state by state? Right now control is basically 50/50 (2 I's who side with D). D's will likely flip PA so that's D +2. Georgia/Nevada are a coin flips (current D). Where are you flipping 4-5 seats to get to 53? Which states specifically?
I'm as R as they go but this election mid term is not favorable to the R's even with Biden polling low. I think R's flip 2 seats at most to hold a 51/49 advantage but likely lose either Georgia or Wisconsin so it's basically improbable if not impossible to get to 53.
People keep talking about R's crushing it in the Senate but they are not looking at the map and just looking at national polls which mean nothing.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:58 pm to LSUSkip
I hate that we need a 10-15 representative lead in both house and senate to neutralize the GOPe.
But, this would be a good start.
But, this would be a good start.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:05 pm to Street Hawk
They have Kelly as a double digit leader over each Republican candidate for senator in Arizona, that’s ridiculous.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:06 pm to Street Hawk
Dominion says LOL
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:06 pm to hnds2th
When liberals say "its close" you know the Democrats will lose....or have to cheat.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:10 pm to Street Hawk
So what he really means is the Dims will focus their fraudulent efforts on select Senate races…much easier goal than dozens of house fights.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:12 pm to Street Hawk
so basically every mid term election in the last 50 years
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:13 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
I feel like the Rs win the Senate, and likely 53-47, but that is only a gut feeling, not based on any polls or models. It just so happens to basically match his projection.
There's a chance it could happen. But it would take weak Rs to win in blue lean states (PA and GA).
Need to hold NC, WI, and flip NV and AZ. That gets us back 50/50, so would need to pull an upset somewhere else.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:36 pm to Street Hawk
I will believe polls when Dominion starts putting them out.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:39 pm to Street Hawk
Can someone post election night picture of ole Nate?
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:41 pm to MeTarzanYouInsane
according to consensus the 6 battle ground senate seats are:
state / current
GA - D
PA - R
NV - D
AZ - D
WI - R
NH - D
Rs need to hold their 2 and then win 3 of 4 vs D held state. I think we are likely back to 50/50 or 51/49 R
these are listed in the order of closeness per 538
next level looking in:
NC - R
CO - D
state / current
GA - D
PA - R
NV - D
AZ - D
WI - R
NH - D
Rs need to hold their 2 and then win 3 of 4 vs D held state. I think we are likely back to 50/50 or 51/49 R
these are listed in the order of closeness per 538
next level looking in:
NC - R
CO - D
Posted on 6/30/22 at 4:17 pm to MeTarzanYouInsane
quote:
is only a gut feeling
I've looked at the maps, and the polls, but they're not always right. Might be wishful thinking on my part as well.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 4:19 pm to Street Hawk
thr house has like 540 seats so there is a lot more then 100 house elections happening, why only look at 100?
i think the house graph is the real expectation for what the senate will look like if elections were fair
i think the house graph is the real expectation for what the senate will look like if elections were fair
This post was edited on 6/30/22 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 6/30/22 at 4:22 pm to Rex Feral
quote:
I'll take 59 Senate seats
nope, you need 60 because the dims will stand the party line and not cross over like rinos do
Posted on 6/30/22 at 4:43 pm to keakar
quote:
thr house has like 540 seats so there is a lot more then 100 house elections happening, why only look at 100?
Que? That's not what those charts are saying.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 4:49 pm to MeTarzanYouInsane
Georgia is already Democrat so if they lose Georgia it does not impact the current makeup of the Senate but you are correct winning 4-5 seats seems unlikely
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