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Street Hawk
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2014
3113 posts

Nate Silver is out with his 2022 midterm election projections

quote:

Our forecast is out! Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House, but the Senate is a toss-up.



LINK


geauxtigers87
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2011
23951 posts
 Online 

put no faith in any poll, model, word from your uncle's buddy's roomates cousin who worked in the clinton white house at this point


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290
Rex Feral
Georgia Fan
Member since Jan 2014
7883 posts

I'll take 59 Senate seats


LSUSkip
LSU Fan
Central, LA
Member since Jul 2012
11567 posts

I feel like the Rs win the Senate, and likely 53-47, but that is only a gut feeling, not based on any polls or models. It just so happens to basically match his projection.

I give Rs 99% chance to win back the house.


MeTarzanYouInsane
LSU Fan
Lower Bucks
Member since Sep 2013
554 posts

quote:

I feel like the Rs win the Senate, and likely 53-47, but that is only a gut feeling, not based on any polls or models. It just so happens to basically match his projection.


Why do you say this? Did you go state by state? Right now control is basically 50/50 (2 I's who side with D). D's will likely flip PA so that's D +2. Georgia/Nevada are a coin flips (current D). Where are you flipping 4-5 seats to get to 53? Which states specifically?

I'm as R as they go but this election mid term is not favorable to the R's even with Biden polling low. I think R's flip 2 seats at most to hold a 51/49 advantage but likely lose either Georgia or Wisconsin so it's basically improbable if not impossible to get to 53.

People keep talking about R's crushing it in the Senate but they are not looking at the map and just looking at national polls which mean nothing.


WhiskeyThrottle
Member since Nov 2017
3615 posts

I hate that we need a 10-15 representative lead in both house and senate to neutralize the GOPe.

But, this would be a good start.


hnds2th
Arizona
Member since May 2019
2132 posts
 Online 

They have Kelly as a double digit leader over each Republican candidate for senator in Arizona, that’s ridiculous.


FredBear
USA Fan
Member since Aug 2017
12244 posts

Dominion says LOL


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93
TheBoomerEntomber
Member since Jul 2021
51 posts

When liberals say "its close" you know the Democrats will lose....or have to cheat.


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21
FlySaint
Alabama Fan
FL Panhandle
Member since May 2018
1327 posts

So what he really means is the Dims will focus their fraudulent efforts on select Senate races…much easier goal than dozens of house fights.


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32
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USA
Member since 2001
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WinnPtiger
TCU Fan
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2011
21744 posts
 Online 

so basically every mid term election in the last 50 years


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20
burger bearcat
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2020
5910 posts
 Online 

quote:

I feel like the Rs win the Senate, and likely 53-47, but that is only a gut feeling, not based on any polls or models. It just so happens to basically match his projection.


There's a chance it could happen. But it would take weak Rs to win in blue lean states (PA and GA).

Need to hold NC, WI, and flip NV and AZ. That gets us back 50/50, so would need to pull an upset somewhere else.


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deathvalleytiger10
Member since Sep 2009
6084 posts

I will believe polls when Dominion starts putting them out.


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12
ItzMe1972
Member since Dec 2013
7469 posts
 Online 

Can someone post election night picture of ole Nate?


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11
tigeraddict
USA Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
10251 posts

according to consensus the 6 battle ground senate seats are:
state / current
GA - D
PA - R
NV - D
AZ - D
WI - R
NH - D

Rs need to hold their 2 and then win 3 of 4 vs D held state. I think we are likely back to 50/50 or 51/49 R

these are listed in the order of closeness per 538

next level looking in:

NC - R
CO - D


LSUSkip
LSU Fan
Central, LA
Member since Jul 2012
11567 posts

quote:

is only a gut feeling


I've looked at the maps, and the polls, but they're not always right. Might be wishful thinking on my part as well.


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keakar
Member since Jan 2017
22793 posts

thr house has like 540 seats so there is a lot more then 100 house elections happening, why only look at 100?

i think the house graph is the real expectation for what the senate will look like if elections were fair
This post was edited on 6/30 at 4:21 pm


keakar
Member since Jan 2017
22793 posts

quote:

I'll take 59 Senate seats


nope, you need 60 because the dims will stand the party line and not cross over like rinos do


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20
saintforlife1
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2012
1171 posts

quote:

thr house has like 540 seats so there is a lot more then 100 house elections happening, why only look at 100?

Que? That's not what those charts are saying.


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30
Rip Torn
Member since Mar 2020
899 posts
 Online 

Georgia is already Democrat so if they lose Georgia it does not impact the current makeup of the Senate but you are correct winning 4-5 seats seems unlikely


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