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re: Nate Silver has lost it and never be taken seriously again
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:25 pm to Lima Whiskey
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:25 pm to Lima Whiskey
He recently tweeted "but Hunter's emails" and how it's only to " boost the morale of the Trumpiest." He really does have a lot of TDS
0
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:29 pm to OMLandshark
538 is predicting like 340 something electoral votes. This is one of the outlier scenarios if there was a landslide.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:32 pm to TBoy
quote:He posted it on Twitter
I don’t see where Silver has released this map as a prediction about the election. What’s the link for this?
This isn't "his" prediction, this is the map that corresponds to a cluster or spike in the probability chart.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:33 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
538 is predicting like 340 something electoral votes. This is one of the outlier scenarios if there was a landslide.
So they just throw a ton of possible “predictions” out there, then point to the one that ends up being right?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:34 pm to Flats
quote:
So they just throw a ton of possible “predictions” out there, then point to the one that ends up being right?
Yep, see the post right above yours
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:37 pm to OMLandshark
Lol what a clown show
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:37 pm to OMLandshark
Guarantee AT LEAST 20 Million fraudulent ballot are in process and going into the system. Biden's TX campaign manager, Dallas Jones, already got busted in Harris County with up to 700,000 and nobody is doing jack about it either. And just released this afternoon - stacks and stacks of thousands of fraudulent driver licenses have been found in Texas.
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 5:43 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:37 pm to Flats
quote:No. They have a forecast of the most likely scenarios (340-350 EVs) based on 40,000 simulations, and a range of possible scenarios from a Biden landslide to Trump winning comfortably since it’s a probabilistic forecast.
So they just throw a ton of possible “predictions” out there, then point to the one that ends up being right?
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 5:38 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:38 pm to OMLandshark
Only dems took him seriously before
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:39 pm to OMLandshark
I will say this, if Trump loses Florida, Michigan or Wisconsin, he's toast. He HAS to win all three.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:41 pm to hogcard1964
He has to win Wisconsin?
How about snagging Minnesota instead?
He has to win Michigan? What about Pennsylvania?
Florida is huge for either candidate.
How about snagging Minnesota instead?
He has to win Michigan? What about Pennsylvania?
Florida is huge for either candidate.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:44 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
No. They have a forecast of the most likely scenarios (340-350 EVs) based on 40,000 simulations, and a range of possible scenarios from a Biden landslide to Trump winning comfortably since it’s a probabilistic forecast.
Based on flawed polling models. In fact going out of his way to disparage the only poll that predicted trump to win the rust belt states. If I poll the local republican chairs of every state then I have a 99% chance that Trump wins every state. Doesn’t mean my analysis isn’t flawed.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:45 pm to hogcard1964
quote:
I will say this, if Trump loses Florida, Michigan or Wisconsin, he's toast. He HAS to win all three
Trump is over 270 if he wins fl NC arizona and Michigan. Which is not an unreasonable prediction whatsoever
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 5:49 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:56 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Nate Silver has lost it and never be taken seriously again
I can do the same in Photoshop, but it equates to jack shite. Polls and predictions skewed so much reminds me of the white dude in a Ford with a 24 inch lift and bull nuts on the rear.
They are obviously overcompensating for something...
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:59 pm to redneck hippie
quote:
Doesn’t he just crunch the numbers?
Yes, but you have to start with valid data.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:02 pm to crazyatthecamp
Omar has Minnesota covered with tens of thousands of illegal ballots in her district alone. Her associates have the rest of the state covered.
The Michigan governor has the corruption covered for Biden too.
Do not underestimate the massive corruption that has been going on for decades and is currently in hyperdrive for this election.
The Michigan governor has the corruption covered for Biden too.
Do not underestimate the massive corruption that has been going on for decades and is currently in hyperdrive for this election.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:02 pm to Flats
quote:No, but the fact that you've asked this question gives us some insight into why so many people don't understand probability.
So they just throw a ton of possible “predictions” out there, then point to the one that ends up being right?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:03 pm to clooneyisgod
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/4/21 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:12 pm to Korkstand
But if it isn’t a prediction, then this is more fake outrage.
Right wingers are all emotion and no facts.
Right wingers are all emotion and no facts.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:13 pm to PUB
quote:
Guarantee AT LEAST 20 Million fraudulent ballot are in process and going into the system. Biden's TX campaign manager, Dallas Jones, already got busted in Harris County with up to 700,000 and nobody is doing jack about it either. And just released this afternoon - stacks and stacks of thousands of fraudulent driver licenses have been found in Texas.
Link? That's the stuff of nightmares.
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