re: Morning Melt jobs numbers report "this is an 11 year extension to Obama economy"

quote:

---

Oh for frick's sake. Look at the post I was responding to.

---

Looks like you’re as professional as these economists

quote:

---

If I recall correctly, George W. Bush had a pretty good economy during his first term too. We all saw what happened during his second term in office.

---

Keep the faith, keep resisting. He can't keep getting away with this!

quote:

---

Hourly wage growth topped out at just slightly higher than 3% a year. That was a surprisingly modest increase ith unemployment hovering at a 50-year low and many companies announcing the tax cuts would be channelled to employees.

---

I certainly agree that the wage dynamics have been meh, with or without inflation adjustments.

Roughly how big of an impact would you expect this revision to take on weekly or hourly earnings in whatever time frame you're expecting it to show up?

quote:

---

quote: when the next recession hits, which is inevitable, will that be Obama's to claim as well yes, it's all very confusing about which person is individually responsible for which thing. i don't really wish to add to the confusion, but in the threads about this so far, literally no one has mentioned something in this very same report that's pretty fricking massive. i refer to the revision of the 2018-2019 numbers, which at the endpoint of the rebenchmarking were revised down from 2.5 million for that year to 2.0 million. that's a downward revision of twenty fricking percent to the numbers ending in q1 2019. to reiterate, job growth in the first 3-4 quarters following the tax cut & trade war just got revised down by half a million. not sure who to blame this on though. eta: here's the split between y/y payrolls growth from last month's pre-revision numbers (green), and this month's post-revision (red)

---

You never disappoint......100ProofFraud......you're that dude in the corner at the kick arse party.

quote:

---

You never disappoint

---

i was just marveling at your reliability as well!

Obama’s economy was trash and Bush’s fault his entire 8 years in office.

Trump comes along and the economy improves significantly and the MSM says it’s all Obama’s doing.

quote:

---

trump was a hardcore free trader who spent his first term maximizing trade with other nations,

---

Also a one term president.

quote:

---

Just guessing? A fraction of a percent?

---

i'm not sure of the timing you're proposing this impact would materialize, but the rebenchmark did change y/y average hourly wage growth from about 3.24 to about 3.42 for march 2019.

if that's the window you're getting at, that's obviously an improvement, but it doesn't change the shape of the wage growth deceleration that we've been seeing. and in level terms, it's still very meh, as upsides go.

if you want to find a substantive upside, i'd look to the fact that this will mechanically translate to somewhat better productivity growth. and imo productivity growth is what drives everything in the big picture.

quote:

---

there is always going to be a lag in economic response to tax reduction. So no real surprise there. That is why, no matter status on the Laffer Curve, year one will inevitably entail a revenue hit.

---

agree on the upfront revenue hit, but the economic response has already come and gone, both on the supply side and almost entirely on the demand side too.

for the supply side, it's hard to disentangle how much the trade war weighed on that capex response so far. but it's still the case that the supply side response is already gone- just look at where we are today compared to the last 2 years in any measure of investment dynamics (real, nominal, ex-transport, ex-housing, private- anything).