re: Macro wakeup call - what happens to price when demand goes up and supply goes down?

That's what was described with the PS5's. I agree with the blockade. I expect higher energy sector prices to hold higher and will shift some exposure over there on dips. Energy is s sneaky AI play as well. The FED will probably start to hammer down rates in July / September unless commerce is flowing freely in the middle east. Probably wrong because everything shifts on a dime.

Because contracts are forward looking, so as prices are locked in then producers like Valero, PBF have costs that incur and need recouping regardless of a price tomorrow is / a new contract for additional oil. They can hold off on buying till the last second but may get hit with even higher price or less oil available to get

Totally understand all that. Let's discuss situation further.lets say an established oilfield is pumping 1M barrels per day, and it goes to a refinery (here in US, or to a close friendly neighboring refinery)
After refining, we are buying it all back for US consumption. How does that supply get to be raised to higher prices, from a war in middle east?
If we drill, we send it to refinery, and we use domestically....it doesn't seem reliant on world pricing....to be jacked up at the pump, even when no additional expense, demand, etc was taken on.

Lot less poors with no insurance driving POS vehicles on the road.

I get it all.about the contracts. I dont understand why those contracts connect to local produce, refined, and retail sold.
Can the market be bypassed. Me and you agree I send you 1m barrel, you refine, and I get back and retail out. We cant agree on a set cost, no matter what happens? (someone like chevron owns the field and also retail outlets)