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Louisiana: Governor’s race unusually muddy one year from qualifying
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:20 am
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:20 am
quote:
Qualifying for the 2023 Louisiana governor’s race happens one year from today and we still do not have any announced candidates to replace the term-limited John Bel Edwards. ULM political science professor Joshua Stockley says a lot will depend on who controls the U.S. Senate after the federal midterm elections. He says after the national picture is clear Louisiana’s race will finally develop.
“I would expect announcements to occur very quickly. And that’s going to be because whoever announces first kind of gains a little bit of a fundraising advantage,” Stockley said.
U.S. Senators John Kennedy and Bill Cassidy, along with statewide elected officials Jeff Landry, Billy Nungesser and John Schroder have been rumored to run.
If Republicans take control of the senate Stockley thinks it’s more likely Cassidy and Kennedy stay there, opening the door for Lt. Governor Billy Nungesser and Attorney General Jeff Landry. Stockley says the lack of a prominent Democratic candidate is a bad sign for Democrats.
“I think the lack of noise among Democrats with such unknown in the Republican field is a testament to the weak state of the party right now,” Stockley says.
He adds that with so many unknowns affecting the governor’s race it might be quite a while before we know who the major contenders will be.
“We could see nine significant candidates in August, we could see only one significant candidate in August. It’s really hard to know,” Stockley said.
LINK /
For grits and shiggles:
1- Let's assume a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate, who do you think will ultimately throw in on the Republican side of the 2023 Governor's race?
2- Which Democrats give it a go, and if a Democrat does make the runoff (I still think it'll be one Repub and one Dem, not a two Repub runoff), will it be another JBE-type candidate who can be parlayed as a "moderate", or will many of the activists in the Louisiana Democrat Party organization finally get their wish and have "a true liberal" represent their side?
14
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:21 am to ragincajun03
quote:
John Kennedy and Bill Cassidy, along with statewide elected officials Jeff Landry, Billy Nungesser and John Schroder
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:25 am to Damone
If Pinky Nungesser runs, there will be tons of personal dirt thrown at him (some by his own family). It's unavoidable.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:27 am to ragincajun03
1- I think our GOP field will be definitely include Jeff Landry, Bill Nungesser and John Schroder. I expect someone from the Legislature like Rick Ward to run, and maybe Brett Allain. Sharon Hewitt has been mentioned, but at the end of the day, I don't think she runs. Even if the Republicans take the U.S. Senate, I could see someone like Bill Cassidy being convinced to run, especially if he is tired of the hyper-partisanship in D.C. Worst that can happen is he doesn't become Governor, and he can serve out his current term before taking a lobbyist position. Garrett Graves has drawn speculation, but I think the GOP definitely takes over the U.S. House, and as a result, he stays in D.C.
2- I think Gary Chambers runs, and I'll speculate that Walt Leger is convinced to run. Leger is definitely not a moderate, not even as close as JBE, but if it's him vs. Chambers, I think Leger pulls in more votes to win the runoff. Maybe groups convince someone like Jeff Arnold or Rob Marionneaux comes out of state politics retirement and run in order to have that "JBE Moderate Democrat".
2- I think Gary Chambers runs, and I'll speculate that Walt Leger is convinced to run. Leger is definitely not a moderate, not even as close as JBE, but if it's him vs. Chambers, I think Leger pulls in more votes to win the runoff. Maybe groups convince someone like Jeff Arnold or Rob Marionneaux comes out of state politics retirement and run in order to have that "JBE Moderate Democrat".
This post was edited on 8/8/22 at 10:29 am
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:31 am to ragincajun03
quote:
1- Let's assume a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate, who do you think will ultimately throw in on the Republican side of the 2023 Governor's race?
Not Kennedy. Graves still might if he doesn't get a good committee assignment. I don't know that chair of the "aviation subcommittee" will cut it.
quote:
2- Which Democrats give it a go, and if a Democrat does make the runoff (I still think it'll be one Repub and one Dem, not a two Repub runoff), will it be another JBE-type candidate who can be parlayed as a "moderate", or will many of the activists in the Louisiana Democrat Party organization finally get their wish and have "a true liberal" represent their side?
Good question. Gary Smith has made some noise. That's about it. And of course Gary Chambers could always run.
Key issue is Landry is the front runner, but nobody that has worked with him thinks he will be a good governor. So the field is still uncertain.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:40 am to BigJim
quote:
Key issue is Landry is the front runner, but nobody that has worked with him thinks he will be a good governor. So the field is still uncertain.
Doesn't Landry have an illegal immigrant problem? In business with Marcus Pesquera?
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:51 am to ragincajun03
I don’t see a Dem in this state with the ability to pull white voters, which is what they will need because Gravy et all can’t get many whites to vote for them.
Getting JBE was a perfect storm for them with multiple factions of the GOP running and hating each other. I don’t see that happening again.
Getting JBE was a perfect storm for them with multiple factions of the GOP running and hating each other. I don’t see that happening again.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:55 am to ragincajun03
It’s hard to believe it’s almost time for the next election. Time goes by so fast.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 10:59 am to ragincajun03
quote:
Stockley says the lack of a prominent Democratic candidate is a bad sign for Democrats.
His name is Bill Cassidy
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:01 am to keltonAve
quote:
If Pinky Nungesser runs, there will be tons of personal dirt thrown at him (some by his own family). It's unavoidable.
You are 1000% correct on this one. The Canal Street Madame will make an appearance with her black book.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:01 am to MrLSU
What’s Cassidy’s approval looking like from Republicans?
I figure he can get Dem crossovers if he manages to make it to the runoff but I don’t see that happening if Gravy runs.
I figure he can get Dem crossovers if he manages to make it to the runoff but I don’t see that happening if Gravy runs.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:03 am to ragincajun03
Landry is the favorite at this point.
I think Schroeder is a dark horse.
No way in hell do I want Cassidy, and I think he knows we don’t want him either. Enjoy your last term as our senator.
Either way…. We have to vote R regardless of who gets the nod. We can’t afford another JBE.
I think Schroeder is a dark horse.
No way in hell do I want Cassidy, and I think he knows we don’t want him either. Enjoy your last term as our senator.
Either way…. We have to vote R regardless of who gets the nod. We can’t afford another JBE.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:05 am to ragincajun03
quote:
Let's assume a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate, who do you think will ultimately throw in on the Republican side of the 2023 Governor's race?
Jeff Landry.
quote:
Which Democrats give it a go, and if a Democrat does make the runoff (I still think it'll be one Repub and one Dem, not a two Repub runoff), will it be another JBE-type candidate who can be parlayed as a "moderate", or will many of the activists in the Louisiana Democrat Party organization finally get their wish and have "a true liberal" represent their side?
No clue.
Probably a guy who was a dem then a Republican and is now a dem again.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:08 am to ragincajun03
If Gary Chambers wins the governors race I am leaving the state.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:08 am to BigJim
The only currently elected politician I would get behind with enthusiasm is Julia Letlow, otherwise I prefer a businessman with personalty---a Rispone with enough charisma to actually attract voters.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:16 am to teke184
quote:
I figure he can get Dem crossovers if he manages to make it to the runoff
Democrats in Louisiana, especially the party involved types, still HATE Bill Cassidy.
As a result, I don't see how he gets the votes needed to make the runoff. However, should he someone make it against a Republican like Landry, Schroder or someone seen as more conservative, then he very likely could get elected. Again, though, I don't see how he even makes the runoff.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:21 am to ragincajun03
Seeing as our mayor in Shreveport just fudged up his own ability to run again, my guess is Adrian Perkins would throw in his hat. Probably the plan
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:22 am to ragincajun03
quote:
1- Let's assume a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate, who do you think will ultimately throw in on the Republican side of the 2023 Governor's race?
Billy and Jeff plus maybe Nelson.
quote:
2- Which Democrats give it a go, and if a Democrat does make the runoff (I still think it'll be one Repub and one Dem, not a two Repub runoff), will it be another JBE-type candidate who can be parlayed as a "moderate", or will many of the activists in the Louisiana Democrat Party organization finally get their wish and have "a true liberal" represent their side?
Cedric Richmond, Gravy, and probably a proggy white woman from New Orleans. Richmond will run as the “moderate”, but dems throw their weight behind Billy.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:24 am to MrLSU
quote:
there will be tons of personal dirt thrown at him
This sort of tactic won't even phase me or those I associate. This is how they steer the RINOs to the front.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 11:26 am to mmonro3
quote:
If Gary Chambers wins the governors race I am leaving the state.
There's a better chance of UL-Monroe winning the FBS College Football Playoff Championship.
This post was edited on 8/8/22 at 11:29 am
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