- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Let's talk early voting vs 2020
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:21 am
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:21 am
I see numbers posted daily with growing excitement.
But...
When the GOP and Trump have intentionally transitioned their voters from election Day voters to early voters, how on earth are people not recognizing that it's meaningless, UNLESS there are new voters added in. Big Early voting doesn't demonstrate that at all.
I just don't see the benefit of comparing to 2020 numbers unless it includes voters who didn't vote in prior elections
Feels like folks are counting on big Early voting numbers + comparable election day voters. That's simply not reasonably attainable.
But...
When the GOP and Trump have intentionally transitioned their voters from election Day voters to early voters, how on earth are people not recognizing that it's meaningless, UNLESS there are new voters added in. Big Early voting doesn't demonstrate that at all.
I just don't see the benefit of comparing to 2020 numbers unless it includes voters who didn't vote in prior elections
Feels like folks are counting on big Early voting numbers + comparable election day voters. That's simply not reasonably attainable.
7
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:24 am to SportTiger1
I think it is a belweather for new registrations as well and is seen as an overall net positive. Especially when democrat early voting is waaaay down when they normally excel at that.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:25 am to SportTiger1
There are two factors at play:
1. The reports of “low propensity” voters increasing for Republicans, and
2. The notion that Democrats are not keeping up with their 2020 voting, which COULD be indicative of a big issue.
The question ultimately becomes, do you believe the trend of “Republicans outnumbering Democrats on Election Day” actually switches, because if it remains the trend, as it always seems to be, this is all really good info for Republicans.
No one really knows though.
It is somewhat uncharted territory.
Democrats always go into Election Day with a firewall.
1. The reports of “low propensity” voters increasing for Republicans, and
2. The notion that Democrats are not keeping up with their 2020 voting, which COULD be indicative of a big issue.
The question ultimately becomes, do you believe the trend of “Republicans outnumbering Democrats on Election Day” actually switches, because if it remains the trend, as it always seems to be, this is all really good info for Republicans.
No one really knows though.
It is somewhat uncharted territory.
Democrats always go into Election Day with a firewall.
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 10:31 am
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:27 am to SportTiger1
Republicans are beating democrats at turning out low propensity voters so far. Democrats are eating into more of their high propensity voting base. Go do some research.
Let’s also not act like high enthusiasm so far is a bad thing.
Let’s also not act like high enthusiasm so far is a bad thing.
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 10:28 am
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:27 am to SportTiger1
From what I'm hearing it's new voters that don't normally vote. I would fall into this category, Being from Arkansas I didn't vote in 16 or 20 because Trump had Arkansas locked up.
This time I went and voted early because I realized it needed to be done to secure my local elections. In Northwest Arkansas we had an influx of liberals move in. On top of that all the liberal candidates now take these extreme left positions where they used to be much more moderate.
I think what your seeing is that the further left these candidates are getting across the country, it's drawing out people with conservative views that used to sit on the sidelines.
This time I went and voted early because I realized it needed to be done to secure my local elections. In Northwest Arkansas we had an influx of liberals move in. On top of that all the liberal candidates now take these extreme left positions where they used to be much more moderate.
I think what your seeing is that the further left these candidates are getting across the country, it's drawing out people with conservative views that used to sit on the sidelines.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:28 am to JumpingTheShark
quote:I get this in theory, but comparing early/mail in voting to the covid year is fulls gold in and of itself...even if you take republicans out of the picture.
Especially when democrat early voting is waaaay down when they normally excel at that
It's just a very different election procedurally. Square peg round hole and such.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:29 am to SportTiger1
quote:
When the GOP and Trump have intentionally transitioned their voters from election Day voters to early voters, how on earth are people not recognizing that it's meaningless, UNLESS there are new voters added in. Big Early voting doesn't demonstrate that at all.
I just don't see the benefit of comparing to 2020 numbers unless it includes voters who didn't vote in prior elections
Depends on what side you are looking at. If we are talking Dems then it's a comparison on where they were and where they at at this point. That data tells us, she has little support. The levels from 2020 are no where near what she is pulling.
If it's the GOP, yes. NEW voters. That's what we are looking at.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:30 am to SportTiger1
quote:
I get this in theory, but comparing early/mail in voting to the covid year is fulls gold in and of itself...even if you take republicans out of the picture. It's just a very different election procedurally. Square peg round hole and such.
They’re down in both mail and in person. Democrats aren’t turning into majority Election Day voters all of a sudden.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:31 am to Bunta
quote:I understand that that's the argument, but these posts of early voting don't demonstrate that on its face.
Republicans are beating democrats at turning out low propensity voters so far. Democrats are eating into more of their high propensity voting base. Go do some research.
I think Trump wins, maybe bigly, but from an analytical perspective, these early voting numbers are comparing apples to oranges
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:31 am to Ham Solo
When looking at the numbers, a large number of Republicans showing up are the so called low propensity voters.
When looking at the Democrat numbers the large majority are from their high propensity pool.
That is huge.
Also there has been a large push to get Republicans registered to vote and it has paid off. The electorate in a couple of battleground states has switched to Republicans. Whether we see that in the vote or not is to be seen, but these are promising things.
Much more promising than 2016 or 2020.
When looking at the Democrat numbers the large majority are from their high propensity pool.
That is huge.
Also there has been a large push to get Republicans registered to vote and it has paid off. The electorate in a couple of battleground states has switched to Republicans. Whether we see that in the vote or not is to be seen, but these are promising things.
Much more promising than 2016 or 2020.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:32 am to SportTiger1
quote:
I get this in theory, but comparing early/mail in voting to the covid year is fulls gold in and of itself...even if you take republicans out of the picture.
Well, that's not true.
Dem turn out in mail in voting is extremely low.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:33 am to SportTiger1
Not concerned. Voted early. Let the chips fall where they may. I'm planning on an excellent 2025.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:34 am to SportTiger1
quote:I think a lot is also in regards to motivation.
I think Trump wins, maybe bigly, but from an analytical perspective, these early voting numbers are comparing apples to oranges
Let’s be honest here, if Democrats were as motivated as the Republicans seem to be, we would see early voting trends similar to 2020.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:35 am to BCreed1
quote:but shouldn't it be if everything is equal? Covid leftists were scared to death to leave the house. Of course there were going to be more mail in voters in 2020
Dem turn out in mail in voting is extremely low
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:37 am to SportTiger1
There’s literal data showing this. Not sure what else you want.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:37 am to SportTiger1
That is the ultimate question.
I also think there is data showing it is low compared to 2016 in many areas.
I also think there is data showing it is low compared to 2016 in many areas.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:40 am to SportTiger1
quote:
but shouldn't it be if everything is equal? Covid leftists were scared to death to leave the house. Of course there were going to be more mail in voters in 2020
Then where are they? Their in person early voting numbers are not good at all for them. There’s an enthusiasm gap showing right now and I wouldn’t bet they turn into the major Election Day voting party.
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 10:41 am
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:41 am to thetempleowl
quote:
When looking at the numbers, a large number of Republicans showing up are the so called low propensity voters.
Show me where any of this statement is fact or based on something other than some persons opinion.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:43 am to sidewalkside
quote:The best info for that I think is either NV or AZ.
Show me where any of this statement is fact or based on something other than some persons opinion.
They actually release that info.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:44 am to sidewalkside
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. LINKThis post was edited on 10/28/24 at 10:48 am
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News