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re: Let's suppose Trump is right. All countries come to the table...
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:49 pm to David_DJS
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:49 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Well, does deceit/incoherence cause anxiety or calm fears? Because it's anxiety they would want.
I think confusion is more appropriate and accurate in this current situation. The anxiety is secondary to that.
This post was edited on 4/5/25 at 6:50 pm
0
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:49 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Because it's anxiety they would want.
Anxiety for sure.
I'm probably firing up Margin Call tonight now
quote:
Will Emerson: Jesus, Seth. Listen, if you really wanna do this with your life you have to believe you're necessary and you are. People wanna live like this in their cars and big frickin' houses they can't even pay for, then you're necessary. The only reason that they all get to continue living like kings is cause we got our fingers on the scales in their favor. I take my hand off and then the whole world gets really frickin' fair really frickin' quickly and nobody actually wants that. They say they do but they don't. They want what we have to give them but they also wanna, you know, play innocent and pretend they have no idea where it came from. Well, thats more hypocrisy than I'm willing to swallow, so frick em. frick normal people. You know, the funny thing is, tomorrow if all of this goes tits up they're gonna crucify us for being too reckless but if we're wrong, and everything gets back on track? Well then, the same people are gonna laugh till they piss their pants cause we're gonna all look like the biggest pussies God ever let through the door.
Seth Bregman: Do you think we're gonna be wrong?
Will Emerson: [long pause] No, they're all fricked.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:50 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
To paraphrase what Bunk has stated numerous times, I don't remember promoting a forced recession in Agenda47
To paraphrase myself, nobody gives a shite how you or Bunk feel about it.
Give us your alternative strategy, SFP. You've to $10T to float in 2025 and the country cannot afford rates that have prevailed for a couple of years. What's your plan?
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:53 pm to Flats
quote:
But it's also true that just because disruption might be needed, not all disruption will be a good answer. It might be downright destructive and leave you worse off than before.
No doubt about it. Like I said, it's a high wire act and nothing close to certainty that it'll be successful.
I'd feel a ton better if they did something meaningful about spending, but that's probably more meaningful to right-sizing fedgov than addressing our debt situation.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:55 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
In that scenario, per the OP, then manufacturing isn't being brought back, which is what many MAGA people argue the tariffs are for.
This is why it’s a bad faith argument.
You are against tariffs but can’t tell me why every country has tariffs.
Also, no one said tariffs are coming to zero. So in your perfect world of no tariffs, the rest doesn’t matter if that’s the end goal.
And of course there is a very easy way to have manufacturing jobs come back and lower tariffs.
Let’s see if the lawyer can figure it out.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:56 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Give us your alternative strategy, SFP
I already did. Cut federal spending. It's the only way out of the debt mess.
Forcing a trade war is going to negatively affect our ability to do that (by hurting GDP from multiple angles). Refinancing at a lower rate will help, but this strategy, even if it unfolds perfectly as planned, is going to hurt our ability to address the debt from the GDP-tax revenue angle.
Also, doing this after agreeing to spend at Biden levels for another 6 months certainly isn't going to help things.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:57 pm to dgnx6
IF we can bring back millions from the trade deficit, I think he would then move to congress to pass registration for more tax breaks that will be paid for.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:59 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I already did. Cut federal spending
Sounds pretty easy. It’s so basic and simplistic, how did they not think of that?!Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:59 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I already did. Cut federal spending. It's the only way out of the debt mess.
You seriously believe cutting spending will reduce the borrowing costs on $10T in 2025? Hell, Biden's budget doesn't end until Sep 30.
quote:
Forcing a trade war is going to negatively affect our ability to do that (by hurting GDP from multiple angles). Refinancing at a lower rate will help, but this strategy, even if it unfolds perfectly as planned, is going to hurt our ability to address the debt from the GDP-tax revenue angle.
You're assuming that Trump is dug in on these tariffs.
I don't think he is.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:59 pm to dgnx6
quote:
This is why it’s a bad faith argument.
You're having difficulty understanding his question with a very simple hypothetical behind it b/c you're trying to force an irrelevant "tariffs bad" angle.
Tariffs can be good, bad, or negligible and it's irrelevant to this discussion b/c they are 0 in this discussion. The subjective evaluation of them is literally irrelevant.
quote:
Also, no one said tariffs are coming to zero.
This is a thread discussing the scenario where they are. That's the presupposition. All relevant discussion flows from that presupposition.
quote:
So in your perfect world of no tariffs, the rest doesn’t matter if that’s the end goal.
It matters a great deal to people who think the goal is bringing manufacturing back and who want manufacturing back (which is a large portion of MAGA).
They don't care about Vietnam having 0 tariffs. They want der jerbs back
quote:
And of course there is a very easy way to have manufacturing jobs come back and lower tariffs.
Not quite.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:00 pm to SlowFlowPro
We racked up debt being in a trade deficit for 50 years.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:00 pm to Powerman
quote:
That seems to be the problem with this strategy There is no possible way of predicting the outcome It's a dart throwing gamble at best
I am willing to predict that a true global consensus on unfettered free trade is not happening. It is too important to protect domestic agriculture and every country has a pet industry or militarily strategic industry they want to protect.
However, I don’t think many industries can be done cheaply enough in the US that it is economically feasible. Unless y’all want to legalize child labor, lower wages, ease labor protections, and generally make work more dangerous for people.
This post was edited on 4/5/25 at 7:04 pm
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:01 pm to David_DJS
DJ, I’m very pleased with these pragmatic and rational vibes I’m getting from you.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:01 pm to SlowFlowPro
I'm starting to get more frustrated at the tariff "policy" the further I read this thread.
This is like an elaborate game of policy telephone.
Everybody seems to have different ideas of what a policy is or trying to accomplish.
That's how you know you've failed out the gate.
I really think this entire announcement was dumb because nobody set this as a deadline. This could have been phased.
I think we've got broadstrokes of some ideas with no real end goal. "America is being ripped off" is the thesis statement, but there's no succinct argument behind it. We are but pick a lane. Free trade isn't a possibility if you want to bring back manufacturing.
God bless you folks that can unscramble this noodle of a policy.
But I shouldn't have to listen to a hour podcast with a cabinet official to understand something this transformative.
This is like an elaborate game of policy telephone.
Everybody seems to have different ideas of what a policy is or trying to accomplish.
That's how you know you've failed out the gate.
I really think this entire announcement was dumb because nobody set this as a deadline. This could have been phased.
I think we've got broadstrokes of some ideas with no real end goal. "America is being ripped off" is the thesis statement, but there's no succinct argument behind it. We are but pick a lane. Free trade isn't a possibility if you want to bring back manufacturing.
God bless you folks that can unscramble this noodle of a policy.
But I shouldn't have to listen to a hour podcast with a cabinet official to understand something this transformative.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:01 pm to David_DJS
quote:
You seriously believe cutting spending will reduce the borrowing costs on $10T in 2025?
I'm talking long term. There are no short term solutions.
quote:
Hell, Biden's budget doesn't end until Sep 30.
Because they agreed to that
quote:
You're assuming that Trump is dug in on these tariffs.
No. I'm assuming we crash our economy to get rates down to refinance the $10T in 2025.
That could end up in depression, which will certainly outweigh the savings by refinancing at lower rates (due to GDP decreasing and the corresponding tax revenue decrease)
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:02 pm to dgnx6
quote:
We racked up debt being in a trade deficit for 50 years.
No
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:03 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
I think we've got broadstrokes of some ideas with no real end goal. "America is being ripped off" is the thesis statement, but there's no succinct argument behind it. We are but pick a lane. Free trade isn't a possibility if you want to bring back manufacturing.
Correct
quote:
God bless you folks that can unscramble this noodle of a policy.
But I shouldn't have to listen to a hour podcast with a cabinet official to understand something this transformative.
And you're an educated professional with a high IQ
Imagine the uneducated with mid-low IQs trying to unwind this
This post was edited on 4/5/25 at 7:07 pm
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:06 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
You're having difficulty understanding his question with a very simple hypothetical behind it b/c you're trying to force an irrelevant "tariffs bad" angle. Tariffs can be good, bad, or negligible and it's irrelevant to this discussion b/c they are 0 in this discussion. The subjective evaluation of them is literally irrelevant.
No one is arguing that tariffs are going to zero.
If that’s your end goal and it happens, job done.
And yes, if you are against tariffs, you clearly are, then you should want it to go to zero. The other shite doesn’t matter if that’s the goal.
It’s a completely bad faith argument because you are making up a hypothetical no one is saying will happen.
Then trying to play gotcha with, how will you bring back manufacturing jobs if tariffs are zero.
Bitch, you and Roger and rest have been arguing they aren’t coming back with tariffs.
It’s a bullshite argument.
You are a shitty lawyer. And a bad economists cos player.
This post was edited on 4/5/25 at 7:07 pm
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:06 pm to dgnx6
quote:
We racked up debt being in a trade deficit for 50 years.
Jesus wept.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:07 pm to Flats
quote:
Jesus wept.
Damn. Maybe I'll watch Hellraiser instead of Margin Call
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