re: Let's suppose Trump is right. All countries come to the table...

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No one is arguing that tariffs are going to zero.

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That is the literalpresupposition of OP

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We negotiate full scale equal trade. 0% across the board. Big win, I suppose.

How exactly is that pushing manufacturing back stateside? Labor is still cheaper in Vietnam.

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It’s a completely bad faith argument because you are making up a hypothetical no one is saying will happen.

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It's not bad faith because the manufacturing coming home is the real focus of his OP. He just cleared any rhetorical or emotional arguments out of the way by presupposing tariffs are at 0.

His question was, given that flawless victory with a fatality, will manufacturing jobs come back? The answer is "No."

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Bitch, you and Roger and rest have been arguing they aren’t coming back with tariffs.

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No. I said it would be suboptimal and inefficient allocation of resources via government-forced redistribution. It can happen, it would just be terrible for us.

It will not happen in a 0-tariff scenario, though, which is what many MAGA types believe they were promised.

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We negotiate full scale equal trade. 0% across the board.

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Donald Trump has been advocating for tariffs for 40 years. If that was all a ploy to negotiate complete and unfettered free trade across the globe that’s the most 4D chess move I’ve seen.

Tariffs aren’t going away. The goal isn’t 0% tariffs.

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That's why I asked about Trump being dug in. The economy isn't crashing on Monday, I assure you.

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As you said, we have to refi over a period of months, correct? We will have to force this crash for a period of time.

Note, we already had a "natural" recession coming. We are doubling down on that, and if the plan is really the "refi" plan, we have to crush the economy over a long period of time.

His goal is a fair world trading platform, and that will be great for the globe!

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As you said, we have to refi over a period of months, correct? We will have to force this crash for a period of time.

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I'm no expert but I think we have some control here.

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Note, we already had a "natural" recession coming. We are doubling down on that, and if the plan is really the "refi" plan, we have to crush the economy over a long period of time.

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What kind of GDP hit are you fretting? 75% of our economy doesn't involve trade of any type. Our exposure here is less than half what it is abroad.

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And you're an educated professional with a high IQ

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This has snowball effects, due to the "natural" recession and issues we had boiling (CRE, consumer credit, housing market teetering). We had a recession up on deck (one that I argue we needed), and we just threw petrol over our economy specifically to hurt it.

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Yeah, there are risks.

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If they frick this plan up, we're not ending the recession/depression by pulling back on this tariff policy. That's the concern.

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So you say.

This situation is a couple decades in the making. If we didn't want to deal with risk/uncertainty and flirt with a severe downturn, we should have made different choices every one of the last 25 years and the last ten years in particular. Trump played the kick the can down the road game his first term. I'm glad he's at least trying to change the game.

It may be the worst unforced error ever.

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It may be the worst unforced error ever.

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Why do you think he's doing it? Do you really think his goal is to reshore the manufacture of a shite ton of plastic, umm, shite?

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don't know. I can swallow the higher prices if our goal is baseline tariffs to onshore manufacturing back to US. I'm for this. I can even deal with just negotiating better deals 0%. I think pursuing both at once makes you fail at both because neither will accomplish any clear outcome.

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It really isn’t zero sum. Take France for example. There’s no value in trying to onshore manufacturing from France to the USA. However, there is value in removing tariffs that make it difficult for American companies to do business in various markets. This grows demand for American made (or more likely American sold) products.

I see it as 3 pronged.

1. Open markets in other countries by levying tariffs then negotiating both down.

2. Make money. Some countries/markets will have the elasticity to absorb this. People will foot the bill. In this case, the government makes money.

3. Adapt supply chains out of unfavorable areas. Mainly China. I doubt you see a major re-shoring of manufacturing, but I definitely believe we will see a significant diversification of supply chains into more American friendly countries. If nothing else, both sides should be able to agree on how dependent on China we are for critical medical and mineral resources.