re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Russian forces are attempting to cut the road leading to Pokrovsk and Myrnorhad. If they can do this they will cut all supply lines to Ukraine defenders in the areas surrounding the two cities.

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would be huge for them if they can accomplish before they are out of season.

Interesting 'inside baseball' tidbit, those maps rely on Leaflet, which is a pretty cool open source JS library used for making interactive maps. It was developed by a software engineer from Ukraine. I've used it for years, great stuff.

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Yea it would quite a damaging blow to Ukraine if they accomplish it. Especially with those being the last two major cities in that part of Donetsk region with mostly open countryside after. And yea I like those maps they always seem fairly accurate and updated.

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We were discussing this yesterday. It is a key position and if Russia can take it before the muddy season it will be a big deal.

Has the money printing started?

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Today, the Central Bank issued repo to banks for a record amount in 2.5 years - 2.160 trillion rubles..

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These are short term bonds issued by the Central Bank in normal times for 'liquidity' purposes. The Cenral Bank sells the security and agrees to repurchase it later at a higher price, thus adding liquidity to the system. But in the last year, the only buyers are the Russian Federal States and some larger municipalities, who absolutely have no choice in the matter. The repayment schedule is HAHAHAHA. Thus it now simply acts as a transfer from the local governments to the Kremlin.

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I have 3 versions of what happened -

1. The largest bond placement is being prepared;

2. Banks are preparing for an outflow of deposits caused by Trump's threat to impose sanctions;

3. The liquidity deficit is caused by the payment of taxes on July 25-28, and a short-term liquidity gap.

A precise conclusion can be made later. But such volumes of repo issuance are a bad sign for Russia.

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Call me a cynic but to clarify, #1 results in supporting the Kremlin budget; #2 and 3 result in supporting the middle class consumer. Another way of looking at it - which one would require 2.16 trillion Rubles?







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Maybe some limited counter offensive but I don’t know how big it would be. There’s been no large troop movements by Ukraine to indicate they are preparing for a large counter offensive. And even if there were it’s still hard to say how successful it would be because they would be under constant air, drone, and arty attack.

Not only bring the old empire back but Ukraine is the key piece to recreating it. It was the real bread basket as well as significant with industrial capacity along with science and engineering. Kharkiv made the most tanks for the USSR from T-34 through T-62 models Mariupol was were the vast majority of Neon gas extracted in the world when it fell.

Putin NEEDS all of Ukraine to even begin to meet his goals

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take Trump's sudden about face to Putin as a symptom (not the cause) of Ukraine possibly pulling something big.

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Possibly, but based on what we know on the ground it seems more related to Russian progress in cutting off strategically important areas.

Trump is about as subtle as a Kiss concert

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I think they care

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Putin may not care, we may see whether or not his customers care about the secondary sanctions.

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Putin may not care, we may see whether or not his enablers care about the secondary sanctions.

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FIFY

The "Mighty" BRICS

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The tariffs mentioned by Trump are expected to be secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil, gas and other products, such as China and India.

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That will leave a mark.