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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 9/17/26 at 7:20 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 9/17/26 at 7:20 am to VolSquatch
This is what happens when you deal with the Chinese, especially from a position of weakness and existential need.
Posted on 9/17/26 at 7:52 am to DMAN1968
quote:
Has he not been criticized and downvoted in the past for using Rybar?
I’ve criticized him for posting maps wit little context. I never criticized him for using Rybar.
On his last CV post I noted Rybar appeared to be ahead of ISW reporting Lyman news. I wasn’t being critical.
But Vol likes to jump in and “defend” people. He likes to do that.
Others have called Nate a bot or a Russian, not me. I think he’s wrong about things, but you don’t have to be Russian to be wrong. He’s just wrong.
Posted on 9/17/26 at 8:12 am to Coeur du Tigre
Someone is losing and desperate.
quote:
The number of Russian acts of hybrid warfare and outright warfare has accelerated at an unprecedented level. In the last 10 days, we've recorded almost 50 confirmed and probable acts from Svalbard to Washington to Tsareva Livada in Bulgaria.
That's a 10% jump in recorded incidents since March 2022 in just 10 days.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/17/26 at 10:18 am to DMAN1968
quote:
Nates maps are more interesting than tigre's MSPaint pictures
Yeah, single maps are a data point.
You can get info from them despite some people trying to claim they are essentially useless, but you have to take them with a grain of salt. You really need to know how the creators define controlled areas and contested areas because there are a few different ways you could go about that.
As for Tigre, he weaponizes pedophillia accusations as a political cudgel when Trump doesn't do what he wants and then completely changes his tune when Trump swings the other way. If you legitimately believe someone is a pedo you either care about someone being a pedo all the time or you don't actually care at all, and if it's the latter and you're trying to use it for political gain you're a POS person, full stop.
This post was edited on 9/17/26 at 10:19 am
Posted on 9/17/26 at 11:21 am to VolSquatch
So much winning.
quote:
CNN: Zelensky is ahead of Trump in popularity ratings in the US. Trump’s net approval rating for his actions in the war in Ukraine has fallen by 33 points, and among independent voters by 53.
At the same time, attacks on Zelensky are not adding to Trump’s support at home. [But TACO can't help himself, insulting people is the only form of communication he knows.] Zelensky’s net approval rating among Americans is plus 13 points, while Trump’s is minus 18 points.
That is, the Ukrainian president is ahead of Trump in popularity in the US itself by 31 points.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/17/26 at 11:57 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 9/17/26 at 1:59 pm to cypher
Now repost that map next week, next month, etc.
Then we can see the overall trend and not just how it looks today.
Then we can see the overall trend and not just how it looks today.
Posted on 9/17/26 at 3:36 pm to doubleb
The thing about Rybar was they actually tried to report the truth, and I respect them for that.
But then, about three years ago, Putin pulled all the warbloggers in and threatened them if they posted info that "disparaged the military" and he threw a couple of writers in jail to emphasize that he meant business.
After that, Rybar had to follow the party line. So, I don't think that he's any worse than other Russian bloggers or reporters. But, as I've indicated, they don't have a free press in Russia---far from it---and all writing (and mapping) from the Russian side reflects that.
But then, about three years ago, Putin pulled all the warbloggers in and threatened them if they posted info that "disparaged the military" and he threw a couple of writers in jail to emphasize that he meant business.
After that, Rybar had to follow the party line. So, I don't think that he's any worse than other Russian bloggers or reporters. But, as I've indicated, they don't have a free press in Russia---far from it---and all writing (and mapping) from the Russian side reflects that.
Posted on 9/17/26 at 5:13 pm to cypher
Why Operation Vivaldi is worth studying: Ukraine is combining offense, drones, EW and robotics into one battlefield system.
EW is evolving from individual jammers protecting individual positions into a coordinated battlefield layer designed to reduce the effectiveness of thousands of enemy drone missions.
In a war where drones increasingly determine who can move, resupply and concentrate forces, suppressing the enemy’s unmanned system can create something increasingly scarce:
freedom to maneuver.
That may be the most important thing about Vivaldi.
Not simply how much territory Ukraine takes.
But how Ukrainian Defense Forces are trying to create the conditions in which taking territory becomes possible again on a drone-saturated battlefield.
EW is evolving from individual jammers protecting individual positions into a coordinated battlefield layer designed to reduce the effectiveness of thousands of enemy drone missions.
In a war where drones increasingly determine who can move, resupply and concentrate forces, suppressing the enemy’s unmanned system can create something increasingly scarce:
freedom to maneuver.
That may be the most important thing about Vivaldi.
Not simply how much territory Ukraine takes.
But how Ukrainian Defense Forces are trying to create the conditions in which taking territory becomes possible again on a drone-saturated battlefield.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/17/26 at 5:27 pm to cypher
Seems the Ukrainians are pushing all their chips to the middle of the table in the Lyman direction. I agree it is interesting and consequential.
Posted on 9/17/26 at 5:32 pm to T1gerNate
I will note though that “Operation Vivaldi” is an extremely dumb and gay name. It would have been better to call it “Thanks for the Money Ursula” if they were going to call it “Operation Vivaldi.” I’d be embarrassed.
Posted on 9/17/26 at 8:33 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
Seems the Ukrainians are pushing all their chips to the middle of the table in the Lyman direction. I agree it is interesting and consequential.
Maybe Rybar thinks this is the case but they have been clearing forests of Russians elsewhere
Posted on 9/17/26 at 8:34 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
I will note though that “Operation Vivaldi” is an extremely dumb and gay name.
Not as gay as doing each other in the trenches because it's military tradition.
Posted on 9/17/26 at 11:11 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
Has he not been criticized and downvoted in the past for using Rybar?
I don't pay attention daily but I seem to remember that.
But a Ukraine positive Rybar map doesn't get the same treatment?
I mean...C'mon...
As usual, ya'll have missed the point.
The maps don't matter . I've downvoted him not because I didn't like the maps, or that they are inaccurate or biased or anything, but becuase he doesn't understand what he's looking at, draws the wrong conclusions and as such the maps don't mean squat.
Who was it? T1ger, or GOP or who that said, "I repeat, I believe the Donbass is falling" and I always repeated 'Who cares??" Well, we're a couple of months past it and not only has the Donbass not fallen, they are in fact going the other way now, and it wouldn't matter if it had fallen because the DONBASS DOESN"T MATTER FOR MILITARY REASONS, ONLY PUTIN'S POLICIAL CRAP.
I even posted RYBAR HIMSELF saying the 'granny hamlets' the Russians are taking don't matter. So, who gives a damn if the Russians take a few meters a day??
Coupla Rubes down south, I guess.
Posted on 9/18/26 at 3:15 am to Leopold
One of the proven highly mobile mainstays against the increasing number of drones. With modification of long range detection systems communicating with these weapons, they have been proven effective against cruise missiles as well. These modifications are becoming standard now.
quote:
Rheinmetall plans to ramp up production of Skynex and Skyranger air defense systems to around 400 units annually by 2027, reaching eight systems per week. Production capacity is planned at 140 systems annually in Switzerland, another 140 in Italy and 100 in Germany. Ukraine already operates Skynex systems, while deliveries of Skyranger 35 systems mounted on Leopard 1 chassis began in November 2025. The systems are designed to counter threats including Shahed drones.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.quote:
Skyrangers are also (partly) built in the Netherlands' factory of Rheinmetall.
quote:True.
Eight systems weekly helps, but interoperability, ammunition stocks and trained crews will determine whether this capacity translates into a resilient shield.
Posted on 9/18/26 at 3:17 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Bingo: Russia’s Yaroslavl refinery halted crude processing after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged its AVT-3 unit, four industry sources told Reuters. AVT-3 accounts for about 40% of the plant’s capacity, while another key unit was already under repair from an August strike.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/18/26 at 3:22 am to Coeur du Tigre
Compare this to Russia's sources of finance. One side's growing by billions, one side's going the other way. Any help from the BRICS - NORKs? 
That's a one-way street going the wrong way for Putin.
That's a one-way street going the wrong way for Putin. quote:
The EU will provide Ukraine with €3.3 billion tomorrow for missiles and drones, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after speaking with Zelensky. The EU also agreed last week to finance Patriot systems under its loan supporting Ukraine. Von der Leyen said remaining SAFE funds could support new joint EU-Ukrainian defense projects, including the planned Freya air and missile defense system. The EU has mobilized nearly €15 billion for Ukraine this year.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/18/26 at 3:27 am to Coeur du Tigre
Why are they worried? Putin will never institute sanctions against his allies.
quote:
Russia, China and India pushed back after Congress passed new sanctions legislation targeting Russian energy. The Kremlin said the measure would complicate efforts to find a path toward ending the war against Ukraine. China’s Foreign Ministry called the restrictions unjustified and defended its cooperation with Russia. India warned Washington that new tariffs over purchases of Russian oil could affect bilateral relations and said it would continue buying Russian crude.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/18/26 at 3:40 am to Coeur du Tigre
Last night and the night before Rostov drone airfields were hit. This is going to be an established pattern. The heavier long range Geran-type drones require protected storage and a long launch runway, both of which fix them as immovable targets.
This will require more AD to be pulled from other vulnerabilities. Except Putin's summer palaces, of course.
This will require more AD to be pulled from other vulnerabilities. Except Putin's summer palaces, of course.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. This post was edited on 9/18/26 at 3:42 am
Posted on 9/18/26 at 6:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
I believe this is probably true, and Ukraine’s operation “Thanks For The Money Ursula” in the Lyman direction did disrupt this. However, it also appears that by concentrating forces in the Lyman direction it has allowed Russia to advance broadly in the Dobropillya/Druzhkivka direction, which both ISW and Rybar mapping seems to support.
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