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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:37 am to crazy4lsu
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:37 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
Attack on Novorossiysk, - Aug. 12
1. NKHP — grain and fuel oil terminals
Recorded damage: Numerous damage to grain storage facilities and transport infrastructure facilities, including elevators, is noticeable on the territory of the NKHP grain terminal.
NKHP is one of the three main grain terminals in Novorossiysk and provides about 12% of Russian grain exports. The other two terminals — NZT (12%) and KSK (14%) — remained unaffected according to satellite images. The three grain terminals in Novorossiysk together provide about 40% of Russian grain exports. In total, about 80% of such exports pass through the Azov-Black Sea basin.
2. Russian Navy base in Novorossiysk
Probably affected ships and vessels:
Project 11356R frigate Admiral Makarov — damage in the area of ??Kalibr missile launchers, as well as the aft superstructure with radar systems.
Project 11356R frigate Admiral Essen — damage in the area of ??Kalibr launchers. Each frigate has 8 launch cells.
Project 266M minesweeper.
Project 20360 research vessel Viktor Cherokov.
Project 22160 patrol ship — specific vessel not identified.
Project 864 reconnaissance ship Priazovye — possible damage to the stern; the extent of damage is difficult to determine from the available images.
Unidentified dry cargo ship.
Coastal infrastructure: Several hits were also recorded on the ground infrastructure of the 4th submarine brigade.
3. Sheskharis Oil Export Terminal Recorded damage: The main berths of the terminal were hit, in particular berth No. 1, which is used to service large Aframax and Suezmax tankers.
Vessels: An Aframax tanker was probably attacked during loading.
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Exilenova+ satellite analysis of the August 12 Novorossiysk strike shows extensive damage at three key sites: the NKHP grain and fuel-oil terminals, Russia’s naval base and the Sheskharis oil-export terminal. Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen were likely hit near their Kalibr launchers, while a minesweeper, patrol ship, intelligence ship and experimental vessel also appear damaged. NKHP handles around 12% of Russian grain exports, while Sheskharis suffered hits on its main tanker berths.
quote:
At least 7 vessels were likely hit at Russia’s Novorossiysk naval base: Project 11356R frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen, a Project 266M minesweeper, Project 20360 OS experimental vessel Viktor Cherokov, an unidentified Project 22160 patrol ship, Project 864 intelligence ship Priazovye and an unidentified dry cargo vessel. Makarov and Essen appear damaged around their Kalibr launcher areas; Makarov also shows damage near the aft radar superstructure.
quote:
Six of seven Sheskharis loading stands hit, oil exports suspended, and the Black Sea Fleets last Kalibr carriers are now sitting ducks in their own harbor. Novorossiysk was supposed to be the safe fallback after Sevastopol. It isnt.
2
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:37 am to T1gerNate
quote:
Can Russia make Ukranians believe that they're really just western Russians?
quote:
They are.
And your point is? They have shared ancestry, sure, but they don't identify with Russian nationality. There's a long history of the region, but perhaps the most impactful event for Ukrainian independence was the Holodomor. That was generational trauma that they never forgot. In 1991, 92% of the Ukrainian electorate voted for independence. Russia and Putin and you (possibly) can claim they are part of Russia, but Ukraine has clearly and firmly separated itself for 35 years.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:42 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Exilenova+ satellite imagery indicates all four atmospheric-vacuum distillation units at Russia’s Orsk refinery were hit [Aug.10] in the Ukrainian strike. If confirmed across the full site, that means every AVT unit at the plant was affected. The scale of damage makes the attack one of the most successful recent strikes on a Russian oil refinery and helps explain why crude processing was halted after the attack.
quote:
Orsk is 6.6 million tons of annual crude processing, feeding the Urals and western Siberia with gasoline and diesel. Four AVT units down means zero primary distillation. The refinery is a brick until those columns get rebuilt, and moscovia has no quick fix for that.
quote:
Taking out all four AVT units means there's no partial processing to fall back on, the whole site sits idle until they're rebuilt.
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Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:43 am to VolSquatch
quote:
I'm more looking at it from some combination of regional identity, historical identity, and somewhat ethnically.
In the Catalonian case, they are distinct by all those metrics, as well as by language.
quote:
If a part of Mongolia suddenly voted to join China I wouldn't suddenly view those people there as Chinese even if they were Chinese citizens.
But China is, again, a national identity. You can already be Mongolian and Chinese. In fact, there is a Mongolian autonomous region of China, called Inner Mongolia, just as there is an autonomous region of Catalonia in Spain. You aren't being consistent here and are treating national identities as though they are not descriptions of both convenience as well as for organization. And for what it is worth, during the Warring States period, Inner Mongolia was among the regions in which the seven states competed, and parts of it were included in the unified Chinese empire during the Qin, meaning that the influence of Chinese polities in the region called Mongolia predates the founding of the County of Barcelona by nearly a millennia.
If that historical association is not enough to call people who are reside there 'Chinese,' I have no idea what possible historical associations you can use to include one autonomous region over another.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:44 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/12/26 at 12:04 pm to Coeur du Tigre
LINK
Seems like Russia is making a big push into Kostiantynivka (had to look back 6 times to spell that right), with Ukraine trying to make a push North of Lyman.
Seems like Russia is making a big push into Kostiantynivka (had to look back 6 times to spell that right), with Ukraine trying to make a push North of Lyman.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 12:33 pm to LARancher1991
The opsec surrounding Ukraine’s operation in the Lyman direction has been exceptional. Drapatyi’s fingerprints are all over it. Whatever is going on there could be very significant. I believe even potentially outcome determinative of the entire war.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 12:47 pm to T1gerNate
Potentially yes. It would really hinder on how long they can sustain their current progress. Also with Russia's big push in the South it'll be interesting to see the amount of resources Ukraine diverts to defend it. In the past Ukraine has diverted a lot of resources to make it as tough as possible for Russia to take large cities. Be interesting to see if they do that here or if the operations in the North take precedence.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 3:45 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/12/26 at 7:39 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
The referendum was for independence from the Soviet Union, not the Russian Federation, which did not exist yet.
We all know that Comrade Nate doesn't care, But I will say this for everyone else: when Ukraine had its independence referendum, every other Soviet republic had already declared independence, with the one exception of Kazakhstan.
The USSR was only going to be Russia and Kazakhstan, and 92% of Ukrainians wanted out of that arrangement, including majorities in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 7:43 pm to LARancher1991
quote:
Russia's big push in the South
Wat?
Ukraine has made steady progress in the southern front this summer. A lot of it was just recently announced (though obvious for a while by geolocations of strike videos).
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:Ukraine attacks halt operations at Russian Black Sea grain terminals Oilprice.com
Did President Zelensky and the Ukrainian armed forces not listen to US Vice President JD Vance's warnings and request after all?
On Wednesday a "massive" Ukrainian drone and missile strike was unleashed on Russia's port city of Novorossiysk, which badly damaged grain export terminals at what also constitutes the last major Russian naval base on the Black Sea.
Three were killed, including an eight-year-old child, and also 24 people were injured in the Wednesday nighttime attack.
Zelensky acknowledged the rocket and underwater drone attack in what he hailed as a "unique operation" to strike the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk.
It seems Zelensky is distinguishing this instance as a hit on a purely 'military target' given he did not mention the grain export terminal aspect of the destruction.
"The occupying fleet and all the infrastructure that supports it will not be safe as long as Russian aggression continues," Zelensky said.
Many Russian assets previously docked at the longtime Russian fleet's home base of Sevastopol were forced to vacate during earlier phases of the war, given the frequent prior targeting of the historic Crimean naval hub. Some ships have even been relocated as far away as the Caspian Sea in order to protect them.
The attack could seriously impact global food supplies, particularly in the African continent.
Reuters has said shutdowns resulted: "Two of Russia's biggest grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk have suspended operations as a result of overnight Ukrainian drone strikes, four industry sources told Reuters on Wednesday."
"Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter and most of those exports are shipped via its Black Sea ports like Novorossiysk. Russia's main grain lobby group warned last month that Ukrainian drone attacks could shut down grain exports via the Black Sea in the near future, pushing up prices and causing hunger in Africa and the Middle East," the report added.
Novorossiysk is also home to vital oil export infrastructure. Kiev has essentially declared open season on Russian oil exports, arguing that proceeds fuel Russia's military machine.
A state of emergency has been declared in Novorossiysk after a Ukrainian drone attack
Due to the rupture of two water mains, the city’s water supply system has been damaged, and water delivery to residents has been restricted.
We reported earlier that at the urging of Vice President Vance, Ukraine indicated that it has suspended attacks on oil tankers using Novorossiysk. The request was made in late July, but first reported today by the Financial Times, citing Ukrainian officials.
Vance's plea sprang from the Trump administration's worries that Ukraine's attacks were creating dangerous instability in global fuel markets. There were also concerns that strikes on vessels transporting Kazakhstan crude oil to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal at Novorossiysk were detrimental to American companies.
So it will be interesting to see if in the wake of this latest Wednesday attack, Washington ramps up the pressure on its Ukrainian ally - or whether such attacks will continue and be met with US silence.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:29 pm to bigjoe1
Vance needs to ramp up pressure on Putin. Only Putin can stop the war.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:06 pm to doubleb
quote:
Vance needs to ramp up pressure on Putin. Only Putin can stop the war.
Putin started the invasion, but I suspect that the collapse of the Russian Army will be what ends it.
Posted on 8/13/26 at 2:54 am to Auburn1968
quote:
Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat, Russia’s 10th-largest refinery, is located [in Bashkortostan] more than 1,000 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
This is a return attack, targeting the repaired sections from the July 14 attack -
quote:
[On July 14] both of the plant's primary processing units were damaged and shut down. These are CDU-6, with a capacity of 17,140 tonnes per day, and CDU-4, which can process 11,430 tonnes of oil and gas condensate per day. Some secondary processing units and other equipment were also damaged. Sources suggest repairs could take several weeks or even months.
quote:
In 2024, Salavat processed 7.2 million tonnes of oil, or about 2.7% of Russia's total oil refining volume.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/13/26 at 2:58 am to Coeur du Tigre
Coincidentally, also in Bashkortostan -
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 8/13/26 at 3:25 am to Coeur du Tigre
Sakhalin is an island in the Pacific, north of Japan. He has been seen west of the Urals exactly once since May 13..
quote:
The only place where Putin didn't chicken out and board a warship is Sakhalin. Sakhalin, you get it? In St. Petersburg on Navy Day, Putin was hiding in the backyard of the Admiralty. And only 8,000 km from Ukraine did he dare to climb aboard a ship.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/13/26 at 3:34 am to Coeur du Tigre
I guess the FSB arrests of oligarchs for the confiscation of their wealth is not counted by the Ministry of Finance.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/13/26 at 5:44 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/13/26 at 7:45 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
BREAKING: Robert Shageev, a former Ukrainian submarine commander who betrayed Ukraine and defected to Russia in 2014, and later took part in Russian submarine missile strikes against Ukraine, was killed in an explosion in occupied Sevastopol.
After his defection, Shageev rose to the rank of Captain 1st Rank and commanded a Project 636 submarine crew of Russia’s 4th Submarine Brigade at the Novorossiysk Naval Base.
In that role, he was responsible for cruise missile launches against Ukrainian cities, energy facilities and civilian infrastructure.
According to preliminary information, the explosive device was planted inside a trash bin next to a bench on Stoletovsky Prospekt. Shageev died at the scene.
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