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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 7:47 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 8/12/26 at 7:47 am to VolSquatch
Russia is making a killing from selling wheat grown in Ukraine that is now under Russian control
3
Posted on 8/12/26 at 7:51 am to No Colors
But but Tigernate has said that he isn't pro Russia. That was obviously a lie
Posted on 8/12/26 at 7:53 am to texag7
quote:
Russia is making a killing from selling wheat grown in Ukraine that is now under Russian control
Congratulations to the four oligarchs who will see a ruble out of those proceeds.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:10 am to texag7
quote:
Russia is making a killing from selling wheat grown in Ukraine that is now under Russian control
They have been killing for over four years.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:23 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Then why did they vote for independence from Russia? After the collapse of the USSR, they all voted in favor of leaving Russia and becoming part of an independent Ukraine. Even Crimea.
The fact that most people in Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk wanted to be Ukrainian obviously doesn't refute the fact that a lot of them still wanted to be Russian, and so of course Russia has found many willing collaborators in those regions.
Many Catalonians want independence but they are still Spanish.
For the record I disagree with the premise that Ukranians are Russian, but people voting to be or not to be governed by a certain body doesn't really mean anything in terms of who those people are.
This post was edited on 8/12/26 at 8:27 am
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:26 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I mean, maps are extremely relevant to the Russian theory of victory. They are not particularly relevant to the Ukrainian theory of victory.
So yeah, how important you think maps are is, at some level, a reflection of who you think is going to win.
I think Russia is going to "win" but individual maps or even several maps supporting my thesis to me don't necessarily refute that or back it up. I've said for years at this point that unless one side or the other taps out this will be a slog for some time period and then someone will collapse and there will be tons of movement in a relatively short time frame.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 9:05 am to VolSquatch
Russia is currently winning because they hold Ukrainian territory worth billions that Ukraine cannot take back.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 9:23 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Then why did they vote for independence from Russia?
The referendum was for independence from the Soviet Union, not the Russian Federation, which did not exist yet.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 9:31 am to T1gerNate
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:01 am to CitizenK
quote:
But but Tigernate has said that he isn't pro Russia.
I'm not pro-Russia. I'm pro-reality.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:06 am to T1gerNate
quote:
I'm not pro-Russia. I'm pro-reality.
When are your sources NOT Russian? Rybar maps were accurate early on but Putin quashed that
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:11 am to cypher
quote:
The Ukrainian forces have reportedly suspended drone attacks on oil tankers at the port of Novorossiysk following a request by U.S. Vice-President JD Vance, the Financial Times wrote today, citing unnamed Ukrainian officials.
The request was prompted by concern that the drone attacks that shut down the Caspian Pipeline Consortium twice over the last two months were additionally destabilizing an already destabilized global oil market. The Ukraine has also targeted tankers docked at the port of Novorossiysk with drones.
CPC operates the pipeline from the Caspian coast in northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port, which handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports from giant oilfields in the country operated by international oil firms, including U.S. supermajor Chevron. CPC transports crude oil from three major fields in Kazakhstan: Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak, in which major western companies have stakes, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and Eni.
The drone attacks on the pipeline and the port caused a sharp drop in Kazakh oil production, with the daily total falling to just about 1 million barrels at the end of July, down from over 2 million barrels daily in June.
“The administration views the CPC as a vital conduit of Kazakhstan-origin energy for European markets that serves as an alternative to Russian energy supplies,” an unnamed U.S. government official told the Financial Times. Washington also told the Zelensky government to stop attacking non-Russian tankers in the Black Sea, according to the report.
Kazakhstan sends some 80% of its oil exports via the CPC to Novorossiysk. Following the drone attacks, the country said this month it was considering alternative routes for its oil. “Transportation through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan system, shipments across the Caspian Sea through the territory of Azerbaijan, as well as the Baku-Supsa route are being considered,” the Kazakh Ministry of Energy said on Monday.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
quote:Vance ssks Ukraine to halt attacks on oil tankers Oilprice.com
LINK
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:48 am to GOP_Tiger
Well, all I am saying is that you can understand the war though multiple means and approaches. Maps are one way, not the only way. Maps might reveal tactical choices but obfuscate strategic or operational goals or might show that tactical choices are subject to other conditions and on and on. I think Perun on YouTube does an especially good job with seeing the strategic realities through an approach that is almost solely focused on defense economics and procurement cycles. Another on YouTube who does really good work is Mark Takacs, a former captain in the Hungarian Defense Forces, who has really granular analysis of tactical choices, especially of the Ukrainians, that discuss some really interesting organizational problems the Ukrainians were having in Pokrovsk. That was almost a year ago now, and in the aftermath, the Russians have advanced all of 10 miles from Pokrovsk to Dobropillya, which was the advance connected to the northern push at Pokrovsk.
That fact also tells a story, but again, as the original poster I responded to had said, it is not the only way of understanding what is going on. Given his posting history, I don't think it is one that he in particular would consider.
That fact also tells a story, but again, as the original poster I responded to had said, it is not the only way of understanding what is going on. Given his posting history, I don't think it is one that he in particular would consider.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:50 am to texag7
Exactly how much wheat is reaching markets from occupied Ukraine?
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:51 am to T1gerNate
quote:
The West will get sick of it first.
Based on what? The defense economics of the next ten years suggest something, and it isn't this, which is unfortunate for all of us.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:03 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Many Catalonians want independence but they are still Spanish.
How? Being Spanish is a national identity. If Catalonia became independent, they would by definition not be Spanish. I'm unclear as to what you mean here.
The notion that Russia can make Ukrainians believe they are just 'Western Russians' is nonsensical. Ukrainian identity survived being part of Imperial Russia, as did several other regional identities that are also distinctly not Russian. There are even groups that survived as ethnic identities after Russian genocide attempts, such as the Circassians and Chechens. If the Russians could not completely subdue groups after nearly 50 years of war, as they attempted during the Caucasian war from 1817 to 1864, I am unsure why they would be able to make Ukrainians think they are just 'Western Russians.'
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:14 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
Based on what?
See, e.g, Afghanistan, Iran.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:21 am to T1gerNate
quote:
See, e.g, Afghanistan, Iran.
You realize there is a world of difference here? In both instances, these are American-led operations in theaters far away from Europe. Secondly, none of these involve Russia, which has been the historical threat to the Central European Plain for centuries. Thirdly, in the Afghanistan case, the Europeans did not correspondingly increase their defense spending, which is the exact opposite of what is going on currently. Again, nothing about the defense economics here suggests that the 'West' will get tired. The US might get tired, as Trump has said many times, but the security situation has already been made clear. France, Germany, the UK, Poland, and Turkey are all on new procurement cycles and, in the absence of a unified European response, Turkey and Poland will absolutely want to compete in the Black Sea (for Turkey specifically) and Eastern Europe (for both Poland and Turkey). There is just no situation where any of the powers who were formerly restrained by the US will now suddenly not act in their own interest. This is just a plain misreading of the situation.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:30 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
How? Being Spanish is a national identity. If Catalonia became independent, they would by definition not be Spanish. I'm unclear as to what you mean here.
I'm more looking at it from some combination of regional identity, historical identity, and somewhat ethnically. If a part of Mongolia suddenly voted to join China I wouldn't suddenly view those people there as Chinese even if they were Chinese citizens.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 11:32 am to texag7
quote:
Russia is currently winning
I don't think you can say that.
I think Russia will win, hope they don't, but imo you can't say they are right now. I think the pendulum has swung back their way a bit.
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