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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 11:03 am to T1gerNate
Posted on 8/3/26 at 11:03 am to T1gerNate
quote:
Hard to say but in my opinion it seems to correlate pretty directly with Syrskyi getting sacked. This is pure speculation on my part but I wonder if elements in the AFU loyal to Syrskyi are not laying down?
The sacking was interesting because Ukraine had their best few months of the war recently just before it happened, but you could probably attribute that more to Russia losing Starlink than Syrski. But does the army feel the same way?
0
Posted on 8/3/26 at 11:07 am to texag7
quote:
Do you question whether ISW posted Ukrainian claims are real?
I sure do, I think ISW is the best source on the war and puts a lot of time into their analysis. I think they would rather be right than first.
But they are providing both sides don’t you agree?
Posted on 8/3/26 at 11:24 am to doubleb
quote:
I sure do, I think ISW is the best source on the war and puts a lot of time into their analysis. I think they would rather be right than first.
But they are providing both sides don’t you agree?
Not really
They are the most widely cited source, but they are influenced by MIC dollars and neocon think tanks.
They have consistently been one of the slowest to acknowledge changes that aren't favorable to Ukriane
Both sides have used their methodology, which is publicly available, to post fake gains. A couple of Russians or Ukranians holding a flag in a building does not necessarily equal control or that area in the age of drone warfare
Posted on 8/3/26 at 12:57 pm to doubleb
quote:
I sure do, I think ISW is the best source on the war and puts a lot of time into their analysis.
Nah, I can't agree with that. ISW has been saying Russia has been teetering on the edge of losing morale for like 4 years.
There are better sources on YouTube. William Spaniel and Perun are two I like a lot. Preston Stewart at least references Russian sources directly for situation maps of the frontline. There are others too that do a better job of integrating sources than ISW, in my view.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 1:51 pm to VolSquatch
LINK
As far as the most accurate up to date maps of the war I find this one to be the best. It pulls from multiple different sources including news broadcast, social media, etc. then apparently uses AI to paint the most accurate picture of what's going on. Probably not 100% accurate but the best I have found so far.
As far as the most accurate up to date maps of the war I find this one to be the best. It pulls from multiple different sources including news broadcast, social media, etc. then apparently uses AI to paint the most accurate picture of what's going on. Probably not 100% accurate but the best I have found so far.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 2:08 pm to doubleb
quote:Wildberries trying to find warehouse space abroad oilprice.com
Desperate to blunt the threat posed by Ukrainian drone attacks, the operator of Wildberries, Russia’s leading e-commerce platform, is looking to lease warehouse space in neighboring Kazakhstan.
In response to a series of recent Ukrainian drone strikes across Russia that have destroyed at least 10 percent of Wildberries’ inventory, representatives of RMB Group, the e-commerce platform’s parent company, are scouring Kazakhstan and are “ready to occupy all available warehouse space in the country,” according to the Russian business daily Kommersant, citing four anonymous real estate sources.
Ukraine has asserted that Wildberries is a legitimate military target because the platform has been used to distribute equipment and electronics that are used on the battlefield in Ukraine. Wildberries representatives deny any connection to the warfare in Ukraine.
Wildberries representatives told Kommersant that the company is building a 100,000 square meter facility near Almaty and another facility of 160,000 square meters near Astana. But those warehouses won’t be ready until 2027 at the earliest, and they appear mainly intended for serving the Kazakh market.
Additional space is needed in Kazakhstan to handle the distribution of goods to customers in Russia. According to the Kommersant sources, Wildberries is reluctant to find new warehousing space in Russia to replace facilities destroyed by drones, and instead wants to add storage capacity in Kazakhstan. At the same time, Russian vendors are reportedly balking at making deals, worried that the risks of working with Wildberries outweigh any financial reward. Warehouse inventory in Kazakhstan is reportedly very limited.
While warehousing goods in Kazakhstan would likely shield the company’s facilities from Ukrainian drone attacks, it could pose other difficulties for Wildberries’ efforts to quickly and efficiently deliver goods. Kazakhstan and Russia are both members of the Eurasian Economic Union, which, in theory, facilitates free trade between the two countries. In reality, the Kazakh-Russian border is far from open.
Over the past year, cargo trucks have faced lengthy waits to clear customs at border points all along the frontier.
And in July, Kazakh authorities introduced police checkpoints at major border crossings, ostensibly to eliminate gas-purchase tourism by Russians seeking to circumvent gasoline shortages in Russia.
Vendors in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are reporting significant losses due to Ukraine’s destruction of Wildberries’ warehouses in Russia. Some small businesses in Kyrgyzstan that rely on Wildberries’ distribution network have been hurt so badly that the State Tax Service in Bishkek has offered them tax holidays until the end of the year. Kazakh businesses have not been hit as hard, but still have reportedly lost at least $3 million worth of merchandise.
Meanwhile, Central Asia is experiencing a second massive wave of Russian immigration, similar to that which occurred in 2022 after the start of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine. Kazakh authorities have reported a large increase in real estate purchases and investments by Russians. The catalyst for the new wave is fear in Russia that the Kremlin will resort to a military draft/full mobilization in the fall, aiming to bolster the depleted Russian army and solidify its eroding fighting capability in Ukraine. Armenia is also reporting a large influx of Russians.
By Eurasianet
Posted on 8/3/26 at 3:39 pm to bigjoe1
quote:Denial is a wonderful thing until it's not. As the antithesis of intelligence it is the basis of modern Russian life. But the penny has dropped for this second wave of emigrants, following the smarter ones of 2022. Better late than never and the coming mobilization is the big never.
Meanwhile, Central Asia is experiencing a second massive wave of Russian immigration, similar to that which occurred in 2022 after the start of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine. Kazakh authorities have reported a large increase in real estate purchases and investments by Russians. The catalyst for the new wave is fear in Russia that the Kremlin will resort to a military draft/full mobilization in the fall, aiming to bolster the depleted Russian army and solidify its eroding fighting capability in Ukraine. Armenia is also reporting a large influx of Russians.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 5:36 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Everywhere is SE Asia got over run by Russians in 2022. Personally knew several Indonesia gals that married Russians seemingly out of the blue
Posted on 8/3/26 at 7:07 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:Russia's oil refining hits 24 year low oilprice.com
Russian crude processing fell to its lowest level in more than two decades in July after Ukraine expanded its drone campaign from refineries to tankers, pipelines and export infrastructure, according to The Moscow Times, citing Bloomberg analysis.
Russian refineries processed an estimated 3.6 million barrels per day in July, the lowest monthly level since May 2002 and roughly one-third below the seasonal average. Between 2020 and 2025, Russian refineries typically processed between 5.3 million and 5.6 million barrels per day during the same period.
Ukraine struck 18 Russian refineries in July, surpassing the previous monthly record of 17 attacks set in May. Targets included the 440,000-barrel-per-day Omsk refinery, Russia’s largest, more than 2,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Ukrainian drones also struck five large oil tankers, five pieces of port infrastructure and two pipelines during the month. Bloomberg counted 30 attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure in July, the second-highest monthly total since the full-scale invasion began.
Ukrainian forces concentrated on refineries during the first half of July before moving against tankers and export logistics later in the month. Refinery strikes resumed during the final week, with three large plants hit during the last three days of July and four more attacked over the weekend, according to Sergei Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Last week, Russia extended its ban on most diesel and gasoline exports to prevent domestic shortages as refinery outages reduced fuel production. Reduced processing has also forced producers to export larger volumes of crude oil, increasing pressure on ports and tanker fleets already disrupted by Ukrainian strikes.
Bloomberg reported that only four tankers loaded crude at Novorossiysk during the week ending July 26, down from seven and eight during the previous two weeks. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said Russia can reroute some crude through Baltic ports, though pipeline, storage and tanker capacity is insufficient to replace all Black Sea export volumes.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
Posted on 8/3/26 at 8:13 pm to bigjoe1
Yes, Wildberries was indeed revolutionary in moving to the cloud.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 8:21 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 8/3/26 at 8:32 pm to lsuoilengr
quote:
Everywhere is SE Asia got over run by Russians in 2022. Personally knew several Indonesia gals that married Russians seemingly out of the blue
As I stated before, biz friend who is Russian was in Central Asia setting up companies for Russians in 2022, and doing the same in SE Asia in 2023. He's a former director of Gazprom.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 10:00 pm to GOP_Tiger
Another good ISW analysis
:
ISW
:
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces are replicating aspects of their Summer-Fall 2025 battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign that set conditions for late 2025 advances near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole to prepare for offensive operations against the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast.
The main objective of the ongoing Russian BAI campaign against the Fortress Belt — as with previous BAI campaigns — is to isolate Ukrainian forces defending the Fortress Belt from sustained logistics. The ongoing Russian BAI campaign aims to shape the battlefield ahead of planned Russian offensive operations against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the future, although Russian forces remain unlikely to advance quickly to or through these cities in the near term.
Russian forces appear to be more heavily relying on glide bomb strikes in their 2026 BAI campaign compared to their 2025 campaigns.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced more personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and security services on August 3.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on August 3.
Russia launched 181 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian military assets on August 3.
ISW
Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:19 am to doubleb
Good morning, here's our Wildberries of the day, Leningrad District -
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:20 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:24 am to Coeur du Tigre
The lagniappe refinery, Samara Oblast (not near the Leningrad Oblast). This refinery was last hit on July 12 -
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:25 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:29 am to Coeur du Tigre
Rats. Lots of employees will be calling in sick this week...
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:42 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:44 am to Coeur du Tigre
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