re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Over the last few weeks, the situation for Ukraine on the frontline has rapidly deteriorated in an unprecedented manner not seen since early 2025.

In the northeastern corner Kharkiv Oblast, Russia has achieved two localised breakthroughs, threatening to encircle more than 360 km² of Ukrainian-controlled territory.

In the Dobropillya direction, one of the most formidable Ukrainian strongholds which has stood for over a year has been breached, with Russian forces now flooding Ukrainian positions in the urban agglomeration between Pokrovsk and Dobropillya.

In the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk direction, Ukraine has been unable to slow down Russian advances, with Russia now coming within 4.7 km of both Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and coming close to fully capturing the crucial tactical ridgeline east of these two final Donbas cities.

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russia has captured Chasiv Yar after 840 days of battles, and has almost completed the capture of Kostyantynivka. The salient west of Chasiv Yar is falling apart day by day as Ukraine withdraws.

In the Druzhkivka direction, Russia achieved a localised breakthrough of up to 6 km, capturing 3 villages and entering 3 others, coming within 5.1 km of Druzhkivka, and threatening the Ukrainian salient west of Kostyantynivka with encirclement.

In the Omelnyk direction, Russia has finally captured the Ukrainian stronghold town of Zaliznychne after over 7 months of battles, and are making new advances west of the Haichur River towards Vozdyvzhivka.

In the Stepnohirsk direction, Russia has halted the Ukrainian counterattacks and have begun retaking previously lost ground, advancing northeast of Kamyanske and north from Mali Shcherbaky.

In the Kupyansk direction, the crucial Ukrainian bridgehead east of the Oskil River continues to shrink day by day, with Russian forces expanding their zone of control in the area of Novosynove, Kivsharivka, Pishchane, Petropavlivka, and Kupyansk itself.

Ukraine is losing incredibly important defensive positions necessary for holding the frontline in the future, especially the areas south of Dobropillya which should not be falling this quickly. However, they are seemingly intent on concentrating their assault forces in counterattacks north of Lyman, west of Komar, and south of Novopavlivka, which have questionable (at best) strategic reasoning for the heavy cost being endured.

The new Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi has inherited a situation that is getting worse by the day, and will have to make some serious and difficult decisions in order to try stabilise it towards the end of Summer.

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Agreed. Really solid source.

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Stop the missiles at the launcher. The technology exists, the platform exists, and the weapon is already approved for sale. A small change in U.S. policy would make a big difference in Ukraine’s fight for survival.

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Ukraine’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets, which have been flying combat missions for two years, are older but capable platforms. However, they are currently not equipped for one of the most strategically important missions in the war: destroying Russian mobile ballistic-missile launchers before they fire.

The reason they can’t execute this mission is not the airplane itself. It is the weapon and the targeting system. The United States has already approved the sale of 3,350 Extended Range Attack Munitions (ERAMs) to Ukraine. These are 500-pound air-launched, highly accurate standoff missiles with a maximum range of about 300 miles, capable of destroying targets under heavy electronic warfare conditions.

ERAMs could give Ukraine the ability to strike ballistic-missile launchers without putting pilots at unacceptable risk. With their extensive range, ERAMs will also allow Ukrainian pilots to engage high-value targets such as supply hubs, ammunition depots, air bases and command centers without flying into the densest concentrations of Russian surface-to-air missile batteries.

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But ERAM delivery alone is not enough. The missiles are being sold with a limitation: They can be utilized only by Ukraine’s legacy Soviet-made aircraft, with no ability to dynamically update targets. But that limitation can be lifted on a timeline of weeks, not years — allowing Ukraine to make the fullest use of its F-16s.

The best way forward is for the U.S. Air Force to prioritize software upgrades enabling full integration of the missile with the F-16’s stores management and weapons delivery systems. [I am a bit surprised that this has not already been done.] This would allow Ukrainian planners to receive updated target locations and program an ERAM’s flight routing and final target selection before the jet takes off, while still allowing the pilot to update the coordinates while in flight (if hunting a mobile missile launcher) [Yes please.].

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A faster but less effective solution [i.e., a solution when Trump prevents this upgrade implementation] would be to equip Ukraine’s F-16s with weapons pylons manufactured by the Danish firm Terma. These pylons allow for ERAM integration onto F-16s and will enable more limited but still impactful improvements in the target-management process.

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The steps required to implement this approach are inexpensive and can be executed quickly. And they directly address not just the Russian ballistic missile threat, but also the sadistic strategy of targeting civilians behind it.

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